Monthly Cash Flow Forecast Model

What Is A Monthly Cash Flow Forecast Model?

The Monthly Cash Flow Forecast Model is a tool that estimates a business's cash inflows and outflows over a month, aiding in budgeting and financial planning.

Using a monthly cash flow forecast model, businesses can forecast their future cash inflows and outflows over a set period, often one month. Firms can predict how much cash they will have in the future and identify any potential shortages or excesses using this model.

Regardless of the size or sector of the company, the monthly cash flow forecast model is a valuable tool that enables companies to organize their cash flow and make informed financial choices.

The model often includes a projected cash flow statement detailing the company's monthly net cash flow and cash inflows and outflows.

The monthly cash flow forecast model begins by projecting the month's cash inflows. The money the company anticipates receiving monthly in sales income, investments, or loans is a cash inflow.

The model uses historical data and future predictions to estimate cash inflows from various sources for the month.

It then estimates the month's cash outflows, including anticipated expenses such as rent, payroll, inventory, and other operating costs. The model considers past data, present patterns, and future predictions to calculate the monthly cash outflows.

Businesses can use the monthly cash flow forecast model as it is a crucial financial tool to forecast their cash flow and make well-informed decisions about their financial health.

Businesses can foresee possible cash shortages or surpluses and adjust their financial strategies by estimating their monthly cash inputs and outflows. Business owners may manage their cash flow and make wise financial decisions with the help of a well-designed monthly cash flow forecast model.

Monthly Cash Flow Forecast Model Inputs and Assumptions

For cash flow modeling, creating a strong input section can be difficult. The assumptions and variables that affect cash flow must be examined. The input section must be precise and well-structured for the model to be useful and accurate.

When building the input section, it is important to consider the sources of relevant data and information. Making decisions based on the outputs of the model requires a strong input section as a foundation.

The following headers will review the assumptions and inputs required for a comprehensive monthly cash flow projection model, providing advice on creating a robust input section.

1. Important Cash Flow Drivers

Identifying and explicitly modeling major cash flow factors are crucial for a monthly cash flow forecast model.

These factors include sales revenue, receivables, payables, inventories, wages, and operating costs. By explicitly modeling these drivers, businesses can understand how changes to these drivers may affect cash flow.

For instance, the starting point is the number of locations a retail business wants to operate each month. From there, revenue calculation involves considering factors such as the number of square feet and sales per square foot.

2. Inputs

Businesses must determine the inputs necessary to predict cash flow once the major drivers have been identified.

Information on customers, suppliers, payment policies, inventory levels, pricing, and other financial data are all examples of inputs.

To enhance accuracy and efficiency, aim to minimize redundant data entry by ensuring consistency and centralization of inputs. However, flexibility may be needed based on the model's complexity.

A centralized database, automated data entry, data validation checks, formulas, and model references can all be used to achieve this.

3. Organizing Inputs

To make it simple for users to comprehend and update the model, inputs should be organized logically, considering factors such as relevance and dependencies rather than strictly following the order of business operations.

For instance, a retail business could consider organizing inputs based on factors such as product type or store location. Still, the choice should align with the specific needs and structure of the business.

4. Inputs for color coding

All inputs should have the same color to distinguish them from other calculated outputs more easily. Users can quickly distinguish between inputs and other calculated outputs by using identical colors for inputs. 

5. Providing Sources

For the inputs to the model to be accurate and for the users of the model to have transparency, the sources of the inputs must be documented.

Companies should use the keyboard shortcut SHIFT + F2 to put notes and comments in cells to explain the sources of their assumptions. Users can then confirm the inputs as needed and better understand where the data comes from.

Create a strong input section to examine cash flow inputs and hypotheses. A solid input section is necessary for a model that can predict monthly cash flows. A thorough input section must examine the variables and assumptions affecting cash flow.

Inputs should only be entered once, and key cash flow drivers should be represented. In addition, all inputs should be the same color and ordered to recognize them from other calculated outputs.

It is crucial to document the model's input sources to ensure the correctness of the inputs and to give the model's users transparency.

Monthly Cash Flow Forecast Model Processing

The processing phase greatly influences the accuracy and applicability of a cash flow forecast model.

Careful step-by-step calculations must ensure the accuracy and transparency of the model. Also, it helps make it easier to audit and update the model. This also aids in finding any mistakes or inconsistencies that might occur during forecasting.

In addition, it is crucial to avoid hard-coded computations in the processing area.

Clear inputs, such as sales information, cost of goods sold, and other pertinent financial measures, are crucial throughout the entire forecast model. As a result, the model is not only certain to be accurate but also made simple to update and adapt when market conditions change.

Complex formulas and computations should be appropriately organized, with consideration for transparency, and may be placed in a designated section of the model or worksheet, balancing clarity and detail.

Additionally, explaining the rationale behind the model's complex structure is critical throughout the model development process. This can be accomplished by using remarks, annotations, or other types of documentation that shed light on the model's underlying presumptions and methods.

Outlining the formulas and calculations simplifies understanding of how the model functions and reveals potential problems or opportunities for development.

Adhering to best practices, including transparent calculations, avoiding hard-coded computations, and segregating complex processing, helps businesses understand cash flow performance, make informed decisions, and promote growth and success.

Monthly Cash Flow Forecast Model Outputs

All significant numbers and metrics are briefly and clearly provided in the output part of a cash flow projection model. Organizing all outputs in one location with logical groups is crucial for simplicity and comprehension in the output section.

This can be achieved using Excel's Grouping function, allowing users to collapse and expand various worksheet portions for improved accessibility and readability. Also, ensuring the model has no hard coding and that formulas drive all outputs is crucial.

Formula-driven outputs facilitate easy updates and modifications in response to changing business conditions, ensuring accuracy and adaptability. It also helps ensure accuracy and dependability.

Businesses can get important insights into their cash flow performance and make wise decisions that promote growth and success by adopting formula-driven outputs.

Cash flow forecast model outputs should offer critical insights for informed decision-making, employing graphs and charts to describe the company's state and identify any problems that need consideration or resolution.

It is also straightforward for executive management to comprehend what will happen over the forecast period.

The output section of a cash flow projection model is crucial for firms to make decisions promoting growth and success.

Businesses can develop precise, dependable, and simple models by following best practices, including grouping outputs and employing formula-driven outputs to enhance decision-making.

This can help firms be better prepared to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves, enhance financial performance, and lower risk.

Categories of Cash Flow Forecast

Now, let's see a few categories of the cash flow forecast below:

1. Operating cash flow forecast

Starting with net income from the income statement, the operating cash flow projection makes adjustments for non-cash costs like depreciation.

Additionally, it considers changes in operating assets and liabilities, including trade payables and receivables. Working capital ratios are calculated using receivable days, inventory days, and payable days for a monthly cash flow prediction.

2. Investing cash flow forecast

The projection for investing cash flows accounts for cash inflows from the sale of PP&E or businesses and cash outflows for investments in property, plant, and equipment (PP&E).

Determine the amount of capital available for future investments using a cash flow prediction.

Consider investing in long-term assets other than PP&E. The predictions of cash flows should consider changes in investment strategy to maintain accuracy and check and adjust cash flow predictions.

3. Financing cash flow forecast

The projection for financing cash flows comprises dividend payments and cash inflows from issuing shares or debt. They also include cash outflows from repurchasing or repaying equities or debt.

The monthly cash flow forecast contributes to tracking and managing cash flow, aiding in decision-making regarding capital expenditures, debt financing, and dividend payments.

Any prediction model must have a high-quality input section. As a result, it is crucial to represent the key drivers of cash flows, arrange the inputs, and provide a list of all the inputs' sources.

In addition, the model's processing section should be clear and simple to understand. 

Important figures should be included in the output area and simple to navigate and understand. Outputs should be arranged and calculated using formulas rather than hard coding.

Decision-making is supported by charts and graphs summarizing key aspects of the business's financial health, but comprehensive analysis is essential for informed decisions.

Researched & Authored by Rakesh Choudhary | Linkedin 

Reviewed and edited by Parul Gupta | LinkedIn

Free Resources

To continue learning and advancing your career, check out these additional helpful WSO resources:

• Financial Forecasting
• Forecasting Cash Flow
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• Stress Test – Financial Modeling
• Top-Down Forecasting