Icahn says he doesn't like/respect Ackman after HLF bet
Hilarious.
JCP appears to be a disaster that continues to get worse. TGT was a bust. HLF bet could turn against Ackman as well. His GGP investment was great, but that was sourced by one of his junior guys, not him (rumor has it the guy got $20m at ~26/7). Could we be seeing Ackman's status unravel? Will his investors begin to leave?
I've personally heard of how he deals with management teams and boards and find the stories repulsive. People on the buyside typically don't like him very much and not because they're jealous. I'd imagine that this behavior doesn't go unpunished forever.






I hesitate to make a broad
I hesitate to make a broad claim like this, but I thought this was widely understood by most in the value space. Ackman has a big head and thinks that whatever his first impression of a business is must be the right one. He had no problem taking credit for the GGP play as loudly as possible, and his approach to activism hasn't exactly yielded much fruit for the most part. In the value activism space we consider him somewhere between a John Paulson and a Kim Jong Il. High profile successes combined with a stubborn disposition that kills all productivity.
But let's not try and pretend the HLF bet is the reason why Icahn hates Ackman. This isn't the first time they've come to blows.
On a marginally related note, I wanted to post a thread earlier (but decided against it) trashing a guy I've loved for a long time: David Einhorn. I know in the wake of the last Greenlight letter it's shortsighted to say he's just not as good as I thought he was, but it's actually a pattern of having a track record of long positions that are inconsistent with the reputation he's been given as one of the great "value guys" out there. Sure, he is, but his love for Apple, Marvel, Seagate, and even General Motors has had me at least a little bit puzzled. And did I forget gold? Call me old school but gold is pretty much off limits to the Buffetologist in me. His short book is one I've always appreciated but why hadn't he covered on GMCR by now? You can't ride that business to zero...
Too much coffee today, I apologize.
I hate victims who respect their executioners
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BH - Agree with your
BH -
Agree with your analysis. And they were involved in a lawsuit as recently as last year. Ackman's definitely a smart guy, but his ego gets in the way. JCP really is the perfect example. Once the initial turnaround failed, I think he should have cut his losses and sold. His catalyst fell through, his thesis was wrong. But now he is on CNBC promoting the store. Even if it does bounce back, the CAGR on that investment will likely be inferior to just having bought SPY.
As for Einhorn, the gold bet really baffled me too. I think most value managers hate QE, but they don't load up on gold. Not a fan of the CMG short either, honestly. But his returns are decent enough and relatively consistent, unlike Ackman's.
Investors get burned when they venture outside their field of expertise. Sometimes it's smart to deviate, but any successful manager should watch for style drift. Hell, it even applies to PAs. Almost all of my investment losses are attributable to instances where I invested outside my area of expertise. The market is too competitive to expect high returns with poor knowledge of a given space.
Saw the video- don't agree
Saw the video- don't agree with Icahn. Doesn't seem to be anything wrong with Ackman's public denouncing of Herbalife. It's very similar to what Einhorn did with Allied. If a company is engaged in illegal activities, a short seller who recognizes that before anyone else should be able to inform the SEC of this and profit from it. Nothing unsavory about it, and it's even more admirable that he's pledging to donate his personal profits to charity.
BlackHat: why hadn't he
why hadn't he covered on GMCR by now? You can't ride that business to zero...
Too much coffee today, I apologize.
I think that his track record of pulling out of Shorts too early and losing money, only to watch them go to zero a year after bcuz he simply couldn't stomach the losses is part of the reason here. I think he made the mistake with GMCR big time. GMCR is actually a good company, maybe the accounting was bad but the product was great. I love GMCR products. Allied on the other hand, was horribly mismanaged and didn't provide a good service. CMG is the same way. I don't agree with his longs in Seagate, apple is understandable, a lot of guys fucked up on that one. Seagate is a slowly dying company imho unless it focuses more on mobile. Which is all cloud based anyways. Cloud is gonna kill HDrives entirely when internet plans improve. As PC becomes less prominent Seagate will as well. This is happening fast.
I feel the same way about Ackmans retarded bet on JCP.
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Ichan got sued by this guy
Ichan got sued by this guy
It's not about the money. It's about the game between people.
BlackHat: I hesitate to make
I hesitate to make a broad claim like this, but I thought this was widely understood by most in the value space. Ackman has a big head and thinks that whatever his first impression of a business is must be the right one. He had no problem taking credit for the GGP play as loudly as possible, and his approach to activism hasn't exactly yielded much fruit for the most part. In the value activism space we consider him somewhere between a John Paulson and a Kim Jong Il. High profile successes combined with a stubborn disposition that kills all productivity.
But let's not try and pretend the HLF bet is the reason why Icahn hates Ackman. This isn't the first time they've come to blows.
On a marginally related note, I wanted to post a thread earlier (but decided against it) trashing a guy I've loved for a long time: David Einhorn. I know in the wake of the last Greenlight letter it's shortsighted to say he's just not as good as I thought he was, but it's actually a pattern of having a track record of long positions that are inconsistent with the reputation he's been given as one of the great "value guys" out there. Sure, he is, but his love for Apple, Marvel, Seagate, and even General Motors has had me at least a little bit puzzled. And did I forget gold? Call me old school but gold is pretty much off limits to the Buffetologist in me. His short book is one I've always appreciated but why hadn't he covered on GMCR by now? You can't ride that business to zero...
Too much coffee today, I apologize.
The fact that a value guy owns Apple is puzzling. This is such a market sentiment/growth expectations stock its ridiculous.
- Guy who praises Einhorn
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The Chipotle in New York by
The Chipotle in New York by me is not nearly as full as it use to be. I am an avid fan of Chipotle. Everyday I go there and see it empty, maybe because of how cold it is, I keep thinking that Q4 and Q12013 will be bad
Bearearns: The Chipotle in
The Chipotle in New York by me is not nearly as full as it use to be. I am an avid fan of Chipotle. Everyday I go there and see it empty, maybe because of how cold it is, I keep thinking that Q4 and Q12013 will be bad
Qdoba>Taco Bell>CMG
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Blackhat, curious on your
Blackhat, curious on your thoughts re: why AAPL, STX, MRVL, and GM longs puzzled you
Einhorn's long bets have
Einhorn's long bets have certainly been mediocre. Do you all think he holds companies like Apple that are likely to outpace the S&P (until the growth story gets questioned) allowing him to just sit back and watch his short bets play out?
kyleyboy: Bearearns: The
The Chipotle in New York by me is not nearly as full as it use to be. I am an avid fan of Chipotle. Everyday I go there and see it empty, maybe because of how cold it is, I keep thinking that Q4 and Q12013 will be bad
Qdoba>Taco Bell>CMG
Patently false. Here is a Taco Bell in NYC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=su0U37w2tws
And Qdoba?? Qdoba is the bastard step-child compared to Chipotle
DontMakeMeShortYou: Hilarious
Hilarious.
JCP appears to be a disaster that continues to get worse. TGT was a bust. HLF bet could turn against Ackman as well. His GGP investment was great, but that was sourced by one of his junior guys, not him (rumor has it the guy got $20m at ~26/7). Could we be seeing Ackman's status unravel? Will his investors begin to leave?
I've personally heard of how he deals with management teams and boards and find the stories repulsive. People on the buyside typically don't like him very much and not because they're jealous. I'd imagine that this behavior doesn't go unpunished forever.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/icahn-say...
The smartest guy I know in this business told me 2 years ago that he seriously believed that Ackman would blow up again.
And fucking with Icahn is just stupid. The guys has $15bn+ that is just his own money. If he wanted to and there wasn't the risk of being called out on market manipulation he could just buy up a huge stake on HLF and pull his borrow.
I don't have a view on his
I don't have a view on his dealings with management teams, would love to hear stories if anyone wants to share. I do think that his risk management has been fairly poor, evidenced by the fact that he has blown up once already. Getting massively concentrated in a short and then telling the whole world seems like a pretty dangerous endeavor. You're basically begging for people to mess with you. Even if you have 100% conviction, by establishing your position that way, you materially alter the risk/reward.
As far as Einhorn goes, I think he is pretty late to the short iron ore trade. With China picking up and risk appetite improving, those stocks are a risky short. I agree with the long-term thesis, but I don't think the trade has been timed very well. Too much has already been said about AAPL so I don't want to add to the chorus with my armchair quarterbacking.
Also I wanted to add that it
Also I wanted to add that it feels good to have a real discussion about these managers, instead of the usual horde of college students touching themselves.
honestly, i don't know how
honestly, i don't know how ackman ever raised a 6 billion dollar fund. his performance hasn't ever been that great(except 2008), and he has had some major losses
BlackHat: Call me old school
You have your way. I have my way. As for the right way, the correct way, and the only way, it does not exist. - Friedrich Nietzsche
Gray
I would agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.
Gray
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kyleyboy: Gray
I can tell you how I made each of my millions - but not where I got the very first
seagate has so far been
Financial Modeling Training
Guide to Finance Interviews
isn't ~20% CAGR since
kyleyboy: BlackHat: why
Did Ackman have any major
YOU JUST GOT TROLLED
http://www.troll.me/images/red-foreman322/dont-you...
On a side note, Icahn used
YOU JUST GOT TROLLED
http://www.troll.me/images/red-foreman322/dont-you...
BlackHat: I hesitate to make
f4tality: kyleyboy: Black
slowdive: Also I wanted to
I hate victims who respect their executioners
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Good point, BH. I don't think
Value Sleuth: Good point, BH.
I hate victims who respect their executioners
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Exactly. It's a fascinating
I cannot fathom spending 500
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Anybody watching cnbc right
TheKing: I cannot fathom
YOU JUST GOT TROLLED
http://www.troll.me/images/red-foreman322/dont-you...
Shit, I missed the apparent
http://www.hardcorevalue.com/
There are two videos.
Maury should be moderating
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Holy shit. That interview is
You have your way. I have my way. As for the right way, the correct way, and the only way, it does not exist. - Friedrich Nietzsche
I love Icahn's description of
I can tell you how I made each of my millions - but not where I got the very first
THIS IS AN AWESOME INTERVIEW.
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Cooper vs. De Niro
Our whole desk was going nuts
Also agree on F > GM. GM has
http://www.realclearpolitics.
It's not about the money. It's about the game between people.
Vintage Carl.
I hate victims who respect their executioners
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according to the markets ,
Hmm. It would be rather