NSFW Episode 4: Silver, Welfare Reform, Winter Inflation
PREVIOUS EPISODES:
NSFW Episode 3: Day Trading, Estate Taxes, Prop 19
NSFW Episode 2: The Euro, Prop Trading, Technology
NSFW Episode 1: QE2, Housing, Commodities
This week's recommended reading:
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises
and
Griftopia: Bubble Machines, Vampire Squids, and the Long Con That Is Breaking America
For those who would like to embed this video on their own website (just be sure to link back to WallStreetOasis.com), here is the embed code:
More information on the GATA conspiracy I referenced:
http://www.gata.org/
And some updated info tying GATA to the alleged silver manipulation by JPM and HSBC:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1270188480.php
As always, let us know what you think, guys. If you enjoyed the episode, be sure to share it with your friends through email or by using the nifty widgets below. If you didn't, well...get bent. (just kidding)
Have a great day, and stay classy WSO.
Lose the food stamps in a liquor store arbitrage play....love it.
Another great video.
I think Jamie Dimon described a financial crisis perfectly. When one of his daughters asked him what a financial crisis was he said "Something that happens every ten years or so." She of coursed asked, "Then why is everyone so surprised?"
Eddie-I think you raise some good points about birth control with the poor, although I do believe that there should probably be a two kids limit of some sort (of course actually enforcing will be hard---what are you going to do take away their assistance, talk about a PR nightmare). It just comes down to it, that if you can't support a yourself and two kids, it would be better for all parties involved if you not have a third---give your first two as much as you can.
Scientific American and other science publications touch on the subject of population control frequently. They bring up a lot of different ideas and perspectives; some are quite rational and others seem as if they were concocted in the Third Reich.
One of their (more civilized) ideas comes stemming from China's two-child policy and applying a similar policy to the US and other nations. With world population projections significantly increasing in the coming years, it seems odd (to certain magazine writers) that the US would only incentivize people to have more children when the growing future demand for sources, such as energy, is very uncertain. I'll save you (and myself) from explaining in detail a few years worth of articles, but the main idea is that world unrest could stem as a result of heavily encouraging society to overpopulate given that more of the earth's resources (nonrenewable) would be consumed faster. One of their suggestions: incentivize people to not have children via tax breaks instead of the other way around. It's not mad scientist evil but it's an interesting proposal. One thing is for certain, society will be a lot different in 50 years than what we know today.
Some of the ideas and theories of the topic are not finite or viable options (given that many science publications take a Utopian view of the world) but it is a very interesting and mind stimulating subject nonetheless.
In regards to welfare, incentivizing recipients to not have children would indeed cause some PR issues let alone a breach of what is moral; could one really cut another person off of financial assistance for becoming pregnant... when did pregnancy become grounds for penalty (see taxes above)?
Great comment, James. SB. I think at some point we have to come to grips with the reality of increased competition for dwindling resources. Whether governments enact population control or millions of people die due to inability to access: food, water, shelter, etc...it is the same result in the end. Evolution always has and will rid the Earth of organisms which are too weak to survive. I think the real issue is human beings unwillingness to accept that we are not any different in the evolutionary sense than dinosaurs or dodos. Egotism is a big part of the argument (on both sides) IMHO.
I do not know that much about the welfare system so I won't comment on that. What I do know, however, is that food stamps (obviously part of welfare program) have a very high multiplier: Take a look at table 1
http://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/assissing-the-impact-of-the…
So any cuts in welfare benefits (including asking/forcing people to have less children) will have a more dramatic impact on the overall economy than cuts in other areas.
Eddie, you mentioned that real wages have actually decreased during the decade. You mind posting a link to any data (not because I don't believe you, but because I want to have some ammunition to help me argue that deflation risks are very real).
Once again, thanks for the video. Always enjoy watching these on Sunday mornings.
There's a lot on real wages declining in the past decade (and, frankly, since 1973) but right off the bat I found these hard numbers running from 2003-2008:
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2008/1…
If you look around, though, it should be pretty easy to find documentation. Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to have what you're looking for.
Eddie, is there a specific reason you use this uploading service? It works perfectly fine for me, but I think it would be a good way to bring traffic to the site if you uploaded to YouTube instead or as well. You could start a WSO or NSFW channel and potentially develop a following independently of the site (with the hope that that second following joins WSO).
We're working on it. Stay tuned.
Okay cool. I think the last time you said something like this it ended in you telling us that PlayBoy had done a story about you. Looking forward to whatever you guys have in store for this idea.
It involves taking the phrase "Throw monkey shit at this user!" to a whole new level
Another great episode. Nice to see the welfare topic brought up.
Very entertaining and enriching.
Would you recommend selling silver? My cost basis for it is around 22.40, but is it time to get rid of it, or should it still go to $30?
Midas,
Just Great no nonsense talk!
Eddie, same.
Interesting as hell!
Midas and Eddie,
Great work again fellas, keep 'em coming.
I'll be changing my tag line after watching this week's installment.
Keep it up.
entertaining as always.
pander to power -
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0071615423/ref=s9_simz_gw_s0_p14_i1?pf…
is a great book which exposes greenspan's scumbaggery
The last thing this country needs is slower population growth. Mustering the political will to cut retired boomers' benefits will be impossible and unpalatable for anyone who's parents aren't loaded. Our country grows on the backs of Mcdonalds workers and illegal immigrants, not just the IB/PE/HF complex.
Very true, but also very complex. The highest birth rates in America are found in the most big-gov dependent environments. Are you sure that kids who are brought up New Deal-ists from day 1 are going to be looking at social security as the endless pit that we know it as OR will they consider it some form of "birthright" like so many of our current countrymen and women?
I think it's a numbers game. Living on welfare isn't exactly fun and enough kids will go on to being productive, in part because they see their parents as having failed.
The problem is that they will see that their parents have failed and demand more government assistance because instead of being able to teach them about hard work and success, they will teach them about government handouts.
Without good parenting, the only way your going to make it is if your slinging crack rock or got a wicked jump shot.
Not to be a complete asshole but I think you are being naive. What about their lifestyle or upbringing would make them feel like their parents have failed? Though I personally haven't experienced welfare and the projects, I had some good friends that did and they always maintained that there is not relevant sense of success for them growing up. None of them look at their parents and say that they are failures because in that environment, there is nothing wrong with not working and collecting a welfare check. It's more of a "us against the world" mentality, in which, taking money from the government is a way of winning...especially if you aren't working. I personally know of some people who live in situations that would not be considered fun, but they manage to linger there for months and years at a time...places I wouldn't want to drive near much less lay my head down at night to try and sleep.
This is not to say there aren't some who do feel like they can do better, because there are and they can, but there is nowhere near "enough" kids becoming productive out of welfare environments.
Regards
I'd like to watch this but the video won't load for me...
Here's a direct link that might work for you:
http://wetoku.com/Eddie_Braverman/2Qp
Heard a great quote today that really sums up my feelings on the current welfare situation
"Our social safety net has become a comfort net. It was originally in place to catch you if you start falling not to hold your hand and keep you standing no matter what."
I 100% agree with Happy.
A safety net is highly desirable. Just like bankruptcy stimulates entrepreneurship, having a welfare program benefits us all. The problem is welfare becomes more and more encompassing. This safety net has expanded much more than just a last ditch effort.
Socialistic programs rely on a working class. As that working class gets smaller and smaller they are taxed more and more.
Basically, welfare people are "parasitic" in the sense that they rely on another organism (i.e. you and I). Parasites are fine as long as they do not kill their host. I strongly feel that the balance has shifted and these parasites are finally starting to strangle the golden goose.
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