How certain is MBB promotion if one is top performer

Bump - curious as well

Only my 2cents, but as far as I know, as long as a top performer does not have any other issues (eg isn't an a-hole), they typically will get promoted without issue. Now, for the Partner promo, I think a couple other factors come in to play: (1) support from other Partners and (2) demonstrated ability to successfully manage clients.

I'm obviously not at that level yet, but from talking with some Partners here, I haven't been given the impression that people would get held back / pushed out for random reasons. Of course, someone could just decide to leave because they have worked with some partners and hated it (eg getting shafted by being staffed on multiple difficult cases with overly demanding / micro managing Partners). 

Data point. At one MBB in NYC, ten years after entry, the class currently has about 15% who remain employed there. That seems pretty typical. Not all departures were voluntary by any means.

If you're a top performer there's no reason why they wouldn't promote you unless there was any ethical concerns. How could a company survive if they let go their top performers? Unless the economy/business is doing poorly, most average performers will get promoted (until the partner levels where it's about selling business and politics). But remember that the bar is high-- MBB recruiting is selective in itself, and you're competing against some elite people.

However, in my/my friends' experience, it's much more common to get counseled out of MBB than to get let go from IB. 

It's hard to tell the exact percent of people who get counseled out every year. Many other threads have discussed how the economy is related to this (2022/23 saw a very high counsel out rate). But people don't realize that a lot of meh performers decide to leave on their own because they see the writing on the wall. I remember a lot of people who left my firm (or my friends who left theirs) were put on a PIP (or put in the 'yellow' which is BCG's term for PIP), then just got another job before they got fired. So MBB might 'counsel out' 10% per year, but maybe 5 more percent left 'voluntarily' in the middle of their PIP. There's no real hard numbers to back that though, just my own experience... 

From my experience (M) annual attrition tends to be quite consistently around 20 percent. What differs from year to year is the mix between voluntary and involuntary attrition. In boom years when people get offered great opportunities at clients, most is voluntary, and in crisis years when the labor market is weak, most is involuntary.

So you could say you  can always stay as a top performer, but the standard what is considered top performance varies quite strongly. Personnel committees are significantly stricter in crisis years and will push for below target ratings.

Partner election is the same. You need to demonstrate your ability to build client relationships and to sell, which is much more difficult in bad years. During the years I have seen, the percentage of associate partners getting elected to partner has varied dramatically, between one third in strong years down to 10 percent in bad years. There is the possibility to defer for 1-2 years during a crisis, but ultimately most will end up getting pushed out.

To be honest it really depends and there is a lot of luck involved. It is not like in banking where you have a clear distinction between top buckets / lower buckets. 

In consulting, you could be a top-performer but have review cycles with bad feedback. In your first two years you'd typically have 4 reviews (every 6 months) so very low sample size. As we know from statistics lower sample size -> higher standard deviation of "true" performance. 

If you are staffed on a really bad project, with bad people/leadership you are playing a completely different game than being staffed on a well-going study with super supportive leadership, that also will push you during review cycles. 

You see what I mean? In the long run this should even out but I've seen strong performers receiving no-promotions just due to circumstances. 

Promotions in MBB are fully 100% meritocratic if you have the correct definition of meritocracy. In consulting it would include:

- not only Excel, PPT, project management skills

- but also likability and people skills with clients

- and internal politics skills

All 3 are important 

I can speak for McKinsey. I understand where your question comes from, but it is a non-issue.

At the Firm, the definition of a top performer is someone who people think can do the job of the next role comfortably. I.e., in order to be designated EM, it is necessary to act as a JEM (Junior EM), typically working under a Senior EM but responsible for another BA/Asc. If you can do this effectively, you are demonstrating your ability to EM in a controlled environment.

A top performer by definition can do the next role and so will always get promoted.

The nuance is twofold: a) Partners/ Senior Partners must think you can perform the next role (I.e., there is a perception part to being a top performer) and b) you have to have the opportunities to demonstrate your ability to do the next role. If no one is willing to take a punt on you and give you a JEM role, you can’t demonstrate your ability. Having strong sponsors and supporters is critical.

Former MBB AP.

There are two types of promotions:

1. "Basically Auto Promotes" --> example is that you graduate from AC1/BA1->AC2/BA2 or C1->C2. These tend to be automatic on tenure, unless you've severely underperformed. You will know if you are out of the running for one of these, because you will have been shifted to a "non billing" role on a case or put on a low-priority / low-stakes case as an extra body. 

2. "Clear the bar promotions" --> This is the jump from pre-to-post MBA or M->SM/AP or AP->P. There is a rubric that is super public about what needs to be achieved and the promotion is generally based on a committee of senior people who have watched you in seat and decide whether or not your performance clears the bar. You should be able to have a mentor/champion/advisor who you can regularly touch base with who will give you feedback as to whether or not you're clearing the bar... in fact if there's any ambiguity you're probably not clearing it. Good news is that MBB firms have historically given folks second and third chances to clear these bars and there are long runways if you need to exit because you aren't going to make it.