Given the current market conditions and the fact that people think the market is going to shift*, how do you think this will affect consulting + consulting return offers for this summer? Specifically for mbb.
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Based on the most helpful WSO content, MBB firms (McKinsey, BCG, Bain) historically maintain high return offer rates for their interns, typically exceeding 90%. Even during challenging market conditions, such as recessions, MBBs prioritize retaining their interns to fill their full-time hiring classes.
However, if the market shifts into a downturn or recession, the overall size of hiring classes may decrease. This could result in fewer total spots available, but the likelihood of rescinding offers remains low. Interns with offers in hand are generally considered safe, as MBBs aim to protect their reputation and maintain competitive positioning.
Additionally, during economic uncertainty, MBBs may adjust their strategies, such as offering virtual internships or reallocating resources to sectors like public sector advisory, which tend to remain active during crises. For example, McKinsey has previously been noted for its increased focus on public sector work during challenging times.
In summary, while the market may influence the total number of hires, MBBs are expected to uphold their high return offer rates, ensuring stability for their interns.
Sources: McKinsey to give FT offers to Summer Associates, Impact of recession on MBB's, Impact of COVID-19 on Consulting Industry, Impact of COVID-19 on Consulting Industry, Consulting Recruiting 2023
It doesn't always follow that bad market = bad consulting market. Sometimes, economic troubles can lead to more opportunities e.g. hiring consulting firms to help with cost reduction programs or quickly react to change (e.g. do Trump tariffs mean we should build a new factory in the EU, and if so where/how)
Also, even when times are tough interns aren't usually the most directly impacted (to clarify interns who already have an offer for the summer -- smaller class sizes are likely if demand looks shakey, so getting an internship gets a lot harder). (A) If one MBB started really hammering return offer rates, that'd be problematic for them down the line when talent chooses one of the other 2 that are less risky (not MBB, but iirc this happened with LEK after they screwed their intern class during COVID), (B) there's a really long lead time before you would actually start full time (especially given they can push your start date as a crisis lever), so there's plenty of time for the economy to change or to use other levers to correct for workforce size (e.g. firing low performers or hiring fewer direct full time or lateral hire consultants), and (C) junior resources are relatively cheap, so often aren't the top priority to cut when a consulting firm has to right-size
That said, I would not expect to be guaranteed an offer if you half-ass it. If we want to benchmark vs past really bad years and assume this situation will be as bad (not a reasonable assumption), I think a couple years ago BCG was at ~80%+ one year which was considered really low. Typically the people who wouldn't get an offer would be irredeemably bad or not put any effort in, vs having a proper cap
thank you so much this was so helpful
If you show up and work hard you should be pretty good
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