Private credit modeling
Hi, I have an interview with a PC firm coming up where I might have to put together a memo and do some financial modeling. Would really appreciate if anyone can share templates or helpful materials.
Hi, I have an interview with a PC firm coming up where I might have to put together a memo and do some financial modeling. Would really appreciate if anyone can share templates or helpful materials.
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it would be helpful if you described the type of PC firm (credit arm of MF or Golub-type)
It’s a credit arm of an asset management firm
It is a Golub-type firm, mostly MM to LMM direct lending
Pretty much all private credit modeling tests I've done have been standard LBOs with just more creative debt structures (like convertibles or PIK debt). So I recommend just doing standard LBO practice with an emphasis on the debt modeling and being able to calculate the returns for each tranche of debt on an individual and blended basis and being able to run downside scenarios to see how they impact debt service capacity.
Thank you! What kind of downside scenarios were you testing typically?
Hey if anyone has thoughts re the below would be super stoked. I’m in a final round case study.
Prompt is evaluate a secondary debt purchase at 90.0 (assuming 90% of current term debt). Target IRR is +10 unlevered.
Is the correct way to think about this: debt purchase (outflow); cash amortization/interest (inflow); remaining debt maturity (inflow)? Or should I be using the unlevered FCF (EBITDA - capex - nwc etc.)??
My scenarios keep showing really low IRRs which makes me think something is wrong. The company still exists so clearly it didn’t go bankrupt.
Thank you!!!
What does unlevered IRR mean here? How would it be different from levered IRR? In either case, is the initial purchase price not the 90% of the term debt as there is no mention of borrowing to fund the purchase of the term debt?
Purchase at 90 means 90 cents on the dollar.
But the rest of your thinking is fine on that so yes purchase would be outflow, interest and amort are periodic inflows and then the maturity is the final inflow at 100 cents on the dollar.
For the IRR math, make sure you’re using the XIRR formula with specific dates.
Ahh thank you fr! Lastly: in my stress case, the Company can't repay the principal at maturity but I had to model 3 more Qs. Think its fine to just put an inflow of whatever it could pay off via cash on the B/S, then switch to a PIK interest/turn off cash interest??
I'm allowed to make assumptions but the IRRs have to based on original maturity.
If the Company isn't able to repay the debt at maturity, then I think you're looking at a bankruptcy / recovery scenario instead. You're on the right track with your thought of paying off via whatever balance sheet cash is there, but you could go one step further by modeling out a simple liquidation scenario. The calculation for this is straight forward; just take the Company's Enterprise Value and assume that is its liquidation value and see if that is enough to paydown the remaining debt. If it's not enough, then you can calculate a recovery percent (if multiple tranches of debt, go down seniority waterfall).
For the purposes of your case, IRR would only change by the amount of principal debt you're recovering.
Edit: Forgot to mention, the math for the recovery rate and IRR will be different; the recovery rate will be calculated on the $ amount recovered vs the face value of the debt, but IRR would still be calculated on the amount the investor actually paid (e.g., the original 90c cash outflow).
What are you guys talking about? You are unlikely to find a private credit / LBO credit that has enough cash to actually pay off debt at maturity, and very few businesses actually do that. The question is whether or not the credit is strong enough to refinance your debt at maturity, not fully pay it off. I would ding a candidate who suggested to pass on an otherwise good credit just because they didn't actually have enough cash to pay off a loan on the maturity date.
Thank you. I have a case study coming up, been doing a few of my own and just could not get the math to work out for Y5 repayment assuming 4-5x leverage. Thank God I found your comment, thought I was missing something terribly.
I come from an L/S equity background. What else would you want to see in an in-office case study?
Coming from a BB sponsor credit background so IRR of a secondary investment is pretty foreign. My memo supports the strength of the credit, KCRs, etc. Im suggesting "invest" but needed a final recovery value for unlevered IRR. If stress EBITDA is lower than PF opening, would have a hard time saying the Company could refi at FV...currently dealing with a TPG asset in my current role thats trying to do this.
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