Any non-semis tech analysts feeling...lost?
I've been doing L/S for a little over 6 years now, 2+2 before that, covering internet more broadly. The market over the past year has primarily rewarded semis/hardware trades and internet investing (and a lot of software investing) has been left for dead. It certainly feels like the world and market is changing and I'm finding less joy/meaning in the work I do. Does anyone else feel this way and if so, are you considering career pivots?
(1) Trade the chaos.
(2) Build up positions that, when the LLM bubble implodes sometime 2H 2027 - 1Q 2029, you can get Michael Lewis to write a book about you. (Sorry I can't be like Lehman's distressed debt desk in 2005 calling 2007 the year the bubble bursts. I know it is a big range)
At the risk of asking a lazy question, I've seen you posit that timeline in a handful of threads - what gives?
What gets announced, and what gets done, are two totally different things. Everything is being priced by what gets announced. What actually gets done is only a tiny sliver of the announcements. (Hell, we are beginning to see this become public knowledge right now.)
It takes time for hype bubbles to burst. It will take time for the realization that the actual buildout, not merely what's getting announced, is a tiny portion of what is being announced and for that reality to circulate through.
yes - internet/software has been very tough. many non-AI TMT stocks at covid 2022 (or below) multiples - some justified by AI threats, others only by narrative.
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