Constructing Documented Regimes - Discretionary Macro PM Sponsorship
Does anyone have any colour wrt how pm sponsorship works at discretionary macro funds?
I essentially circulated a documented regime back in January wrt the Strait of Hormuz closing based on multiple physical signals and the ripple effects on Europe due to LNG disruption due to low gas storage levels.
The regime is still playing out and my signals have helped with sizing discipline and for my exit strategy once partial validation got triggered.
Has anyone got any colour as to how recruitment typically occurs in this space if candidates have evidence of real P&L generated with risk managed discipline, and a causal regime spotted and documented before consensus caught up?
I'm also finishing off my write up for my next documented regime regarding a upstream physical supply bottleneck expressed through just 2 companies producing the material at a high enough quality globally for globally increased demand for commercial use.
Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
Based on the most helpful WSO content, discretionary macro PM sponsorship and recruitment often hinge on a candidate's ability to demonstrate a strong track record of generating real P&L with disciplined risk management and a clear understanding of causal regimes. Here are some insights and advice:
Demonstrating Value Through Documented Regimes:
Your approach of documenting regimes, such as the Strait of Hormuz scenario, and showcasing how your signals influenced sizing discipline and exit strategies is highly valuable. This aligns with what discretionary macro funds look for—candidates who can identify and act on unique, forward-looking insights before consensus forms.
Recruitment Process:
Recruitment in this space typically involves:
Targeting the Right Funds:
Discretionary macro funds often prioritize candidates with specific expertise in areas like EM, FX, Rates, or Equity Index Derivatives. Tailoring your pitch to align with the fund's focus can make a difference.
Building Credibility:
Advice for Your Next Regime:
As you finalize your write-up on the upstream physical supply bottleneck, ensure it:
Your ability to spot and document causal regimes before consensus catches up is a strong selling point. Focus on leveraging this unique skill set to differentiate yourself in the recruitment process.
Sources: LO to MM HF?, Q&A: Non-Target School to Portfolio Manager at a Top Hedge Fund – 6 Years Out of Undergrad, Life decisions...buy-side equity analyst, HF Distribution of outcomes - by mid-30s, DE Shaw L/S equity
tldr Good work on the call and trading it - that may (should) solicit interest from some PMs, if you message properly. Maybe easier to time travel and pitch Citadel's FIMA team, though...
1. Regime was circulated to macro recruiters, and the occasional PM, as well as timestamped on Github.
2. For PM sponsorship, I'm looking for similar minded PMs to see a repeatable framework after reading my regimes and chatting to me to see evidence of iterations and behaviour holding up which could be used internally in a newly created seat i.e. PM sponsorship.
3. PA was used with timestamped trade log as to why size was added and why I de-risked. With discipline to date, after partial validation has occurred, I have generated a 370% profit to date, however the sizing discipline based on my physical signals is what has helped size up in controlled and repeatable way and help me de-risk from higher strike call options first to regain initial investment.
4. The regime isn't quite the same, as my LNG regime was more about a global chokepoint disrupting LNG via a geopolitical energy shock (quick and rapid return, but rare event). My other regime is a structural bottleneck in upstream supply chains (slower with lower returns, but a much more repeatable process across supply chains). I agree that sentence is a bit confusing after re-reading that point. Essentially I was saying there is an oligopoly and I want to express the regime using those upstream companies via upstream margin expansion/downstream margin compression RV trade.
5. Mixture of live ballistic missile alert systems, AIS vessel tracking data in gulf, daily european gas storage levels vs historic seasonal norms, US military buildup in region and Middle East embassy withdrawals.
I understand the returns aren't my main focus point on this, as the process and framework are what I am refining. If I'm honest, the data signals I used weren't exactly explicitly stated with quantified thresholds prior to my regime going live (a mistake I will learn from in future). At this point I'm being honest in my post-mortem after this regime validates/invalidates and keeping track of these lessons learned as future iterations which have now been added to my next regime and future regimes moving forward.
Can I ask who Citadel FIMA are btw? I did attempt contacting senior PMs at Citadel GFI, however I was told they were only recruiting senior pms only for their "talent development" programme (essentially an experienced talent acquisition process)
You want someone to hire you based on one energy trade? Certainly not going to happen for a PM seat unless you have a real background and track (and smart people to vouch for you).
Sorry, I should clarify what I mean. When I say I'm after PM sponsorship, what I meant was I'm after an analyst role that is sponsored/created by a PM specifically for me to work under them.
Even for this, I understand one trade still won't get me the role. However I'm trying to get some clarity over whether my progress to date is enough to even get serious conversations started for this to be possible
I am a junior trader at a prop firm trading commodities. Dont want to sound discouraging, but what you described is not really something i think makes you stand out as an applicant. As others pointed out, its great that you were right on this, and tbh a lot of people were. You can find a ton of analysis in feb and even jan on platts and other platforms. AIS, and missle alert, storage level are the most basic level stuff. I don't know if you have access to prices and things on OTC market, but if you do, a lot of these prop firms like to look at Q4, 2027 cal price levels/spreads between regionals and finding dislocations there due to front end volatility. I think you need actual thesis to stand out. Directional punts in this environment is only suitable for trump and his insiders.
What was your path into a role like that? is it paper trading?
analyst role out of undergrad and got a portion of my team's book as time progressed. Basically pure paper for O&G team although firm has historically done some physicals in the past.
Hi yall. Seems like your consensus here is that this is not /that/ impressive, but good work. Then, may you comment on what /would/ be impressive enough to get hired by a macro pm?
First things first - you were probably feeling pretty good when you posted, and this thread deflated your ego a bit. That’s a good thing. Don’t overreact to it. You understand better than anyone the amount of work and skill that went into your thesis—and, more broadly, what will drive your long-term career potential and hireability. As someone who’s hired and managed juniors before, I can’t overstate how important character (humility, work ethic, honesty, etc.) is when assessing candidates.
I’d highlight two (somewhat contradictory) traits that would impress a macro PM and help get you hired.
First, and most importantly, you should be a force multiplier for the PM. They already have a strategy; what they need is someone junior they can delegate to. Having the right skill set (quant or otherwise) matters a lot, alongside the character traits mentioned above. You need to be resourceful and able to execute reliably.
Second, demonstrating autonomy is also valuable. If they see you have a body of work that shows you can be additive from day one, that’s compelling. Right now, you effectively have a portfolio of one—so keep building. You’re doing the right thing by publishing your work and using it to build relationships. Keep repeating that process.
And keep networking. Building credibility and relationships takes time - don’t let that discourage you.
Thanks for this response. To be honest, I didn't feel deflated as I'm always eager for constructive criticism and it's helpful to get outside opinions considering I'm an external candidate. The main reason why I have been silent is due to the fact that I couldn't answer without offering more specifics on my work, so I thought I would leave it as the regime is currently live.
I really appreciate all the advice from yourself and everyone else on this forum, as it is very insightful and helping me iterate at a faster pace for my next regimes.
I did want an opinion on the level of python proficiency required for PM sponsorship at top discretionary funds under regime pms specifically?
My modelling, data sourcing, statistics and bug dixing knowledge are on point, and continuing to develop further, however I would really like to understand what level is required for these roles at discretionary funds vs under rv/systematic/quant pms?
Isn’t there an aphorism that good (senior) coders focus on data structures, whereas bad (junior) coders focus on syntax? I generally let AI automate syntax development as much as possible, so I can focus on higher value-added stuff. That said, I find there’s an 80/100 rule for AI automation - over rely on AI and it will get you 80% of the answer, but further iteration won’t get you further - and oftentimes you need more. Good post on this here, or elsewhere on Alex’s Substack: https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/the-air-pocket
Perfect response.
Couple of thoughts, as an ex-macro guy, on how to frame your work to market for a job:
Even if you're wrong, this shows that you have a repeatable process.
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