Did I make a mistake by going to PE over HF?

AN2 at a Top BB Group heading to a MF this summer. I knew PE would be competitive, but what I did not realize until talking to former IB colleagues is how competitive PE has gotten, even just over the last 7-8 years. I'm hearing getting direct promote to VP is borderline impossible at some funds, and that even the jump from VP to Principal/Director is no longer guaranteed. This seems to be a fairly significant change in industry dynamics even compared to early 2010s (not surprising given PE saturation and us no longer being in a ZIRP enviornment...). 

Is the job security of PE over HF an illusion? Yes, at a HF you're living year to year, but do you really have "job security" if you know you're getting pushed out after a 2 year associate program in PE? The PE ladder seems harder and harder to play, and it's more reliant on corporate politics. 

For someone like me, who has always liked public markets (had an offer at a top SM fund) and is more on the analytical side (don't have the top 0.1% people-skills that most MF PE partners seem to have....), did I make a mistake recruiting for PE out of increased perceived job security? 

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True, the optionality to jump to a HF will definitely be there coming from a MF....more-so just thinking to myself if I'm going to waste 2-3 years in PE just to potentially leave...Maybe just a broader observation (and curious to hear others' thoughts) that the so-called "job security" of PE is not what people make it out to be.

Hearing stories of so many MF PE folks getting pushed out to smaller MM PE funds for their senior associate year (not saying that's bad in and of itself, but often not what is wanted/desired by the said associate(s)), or leaving entirely for MBA or corp dev. At that rate, and this is more of an open question, is it really that much riskier just going to a SM HF (or even a pod shop)? 

 

Only thing I'd add here is even if you go downstream to a MM PE fund for your senior associate year (or VP), there isn't even a guaranteed chance you'll get promoted the next year (that's honestly the scarier part for me).

Seems like a "dark side" of PE over the last few years that not many people talk about it given well, no one wants to discuss bad news when it happens to themselves...

 

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