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I'll bite. Some initial thoughts:

  1. You have a bunch of weird tabs with empty sheets in your model. Might want to clear them up before uploading.
  2. Comps are a bit strange - I get you were trying to choose other firms in the recruitment industry, but eg ZIP is in a completely different country so not sure how relevant it is, and regardless your comps are at least an order of magnitude diff in cap.
  3. First thesis -> I would focus more on deeper penetration as opposed to TAM growth. New company registration -> immediate new customer for KZ is too far too fast. I like the blue collar idea though. Draw a clear separation between job types -> PMET might not suit mass-applying and AI interviews as much as lower-skilled work.

Have been following your work and keep it up!

 

Hey man, thank you so much for the feedback. Really solid stuff. Do you mind me asking a few follow-ups, for my learning?

1. Think you’re referring to the tabs: 1. Financials, 2. Valuation, 3. Annex. These are empty as they’re meant to be bookmarks, hence why they’re in a diff tab colour too. Is this the convention? How could I make my signposting better?

2. Agreed, but comps are a bit tricky cos most of Kanzhun’s competitors - 58jobs, Zhilian - aren’t listed. I got Zip from one SS report which used it as a comp. Probably gonna add an expln as to why I chose these companies.

3. Agreed, penetration over TAM growth. Yes, should go deeper into differentiating between different industries. Still not sure how to do this though. Probably more research.

 
  1. I think you can simply color code the relevant tabs the same. Typically this is how it's done in my firm.
  2. I would take sell-side reports with a pinch of salt - their incentives are slightly different from yours. Just based off a cursory search, I would focus more on Liepin and the since-delisted but arguably more relevant 51jobs to get a better comps.
  3. You can make some educated guesses here - in your note, you mention blue-collar workers are 45% of newly onboarded forming 39% of revenue, and this is the trend you're looking at.. But since ARJPU is not target metric, you care more about the businesses. What kind of businesses hire blue collar workers? Typically manufacturing or service related, but since you're looking at T3 cities for growth service is probably not as big a driver as manufacturing. Etc etc etc. Could spend some of the time you spent on forecasting non-enterprise revenue on this, especially since you noted it forms less than 1% on avg. of revenue -> not important! Goal is not more research but more efficient research, and discarding info and figures that are trivial.

Also where possible highlight and bold important metrics in your note. And always use PDF where possible except for Excel. 

 

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