Or am I going crazy? The last few posts here have been comparing Blackstone/lone pine/tiger to MM analyst seats and the answers were basically 50/50 between them? I would have thought the former jobs 100% but has perception/reality changed that much since 2020? There is a group of ppl here that think you aren’t a real investor unless you are trading stocks daily with no beta or factor exposure now.
| +23 | % of pods making 9 figures consistently? | 28 | 3h |
| +9 | Fastest Way to MMHF? | 3 | 39m |
| +6 | Credit HF Guys: How much do you think abt "value" | 7 | 1d |
| +6 | Bad PM | 1 | 15h |
| +4 | Amakor Capital - Who are these guys? | 2 | 3d |
| +3 | culture at citadel macro | 1 | 5d |
| +3 | 4 YOE in ER & 30 years old | 5 | 23h |
| +2 | 2+1 -> Start-up -> Publics? | 1 | 6d |
| +2 | Walleye SA 2027 | 3 | 1d |
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Hahahaha yea was insane to observe the paradigm shift. Couple that with a short-term mindset (Tiger losses, Melvin, etc)and that's what you get out of the prestige whores. Main trend I'd say is the prevalence for the shifty MMs for undergrad recruiting - so many seats to pass over so those firms hype up those seats so much for undergrads who don't know better. I still don't get why undergrads don't have a LT mindset tho and view SMs more favourably as a career, not just a launchpad for stupid preftige. I'm pretty sure even undergrads have the capacity to understand that Baupost and Viking have such an objectively more intellectual and robust approach to investing than the earnings-calling MMs
i can guarantee you are vastly overestimating the creativity/“genius” of deep value investing and equally underestimating the talent that goes into “calling” earnings prints.
Wasnt saying deep value funds are geniuses. Value returns check out anyway. Just sayin that that approach inherently buys more longetivity and room for contrarian ideas when an idea goes south for the ST. Who wants to get passed over for missing a quarter by a couple bps and so get forced into benchmark hugging and levered beta?
Just kids seeing the headlines and mentally extrapolating the current hot thing. That was most/all of us, once...
It’s like back in 2021 when everyone thought staying in IB was way better than going to PE / HF because people were extrapolating one year of bonuses into perpetuity. Funny how here mentality works. Important to remember when pendulum shifts too much in one direction, it’s always better to take the contrarian view. Just like how MM seats would have been the right choice leading up to a year like 2022 when everyone and their mothers wanted to work at a tiger cub
"Extrapolating one year of bonus into perpetuity" is such a great way to phrase it. That's exact same reason MBA candidates all go for investment banking and management consulting because it provides the highest SALARY right out of business school, but years out how many of those actually remain in IB and MBB?
Pretty much - its a combination of all the factors other people have said here and in other threads. MM have way more brand recognition with undegrads + hire so frequently that their investing style (+how to pass the interview) gets taught more frequently now + the returns look better vs. tiger for last year so the hype machine is up on them and down on anyone else. I still love the guy that asked if baupost would set them up well for point 72, pretty sure it was a troll though now that I think about it.
OK from a comp/prestige perspective the SM's you listed (Lone Pine / Tiger / Viking) all still have the upper hand but I think you need to break them into buckets.. Lone Pine & Viking have fared FAR better than their counterparts at Tiger & D1 for example. I think Tiger/D1 (I've written on other threads before) have had a massive fall from fame and a lot of people in the public investing space have lost their fascination with Coleman & Sundheim. Not to say we won't experience some other crazy tech boom in our lifetimes but I'm fairly sure being down 60% against an index down ~15% is a blow-up of epic proportions, akin to that of Melvin.
THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THOSE GUYS STILL DON'T MAKE BANK. Melvin analysts were some of the best paid on the street (by a mile). It's just the legacy and reputation is a bit weathered, that's it. Doesn't mean they aren't smart, just (might) mean they aren't as smart as everyone thought they were. Also puts a bit of a needle in the AUM game they were all playing. $100bn in peak AUM across ~30 investment professionals is pretty nice on mgmt fees alone.
To the MM point, the consensus trade now is that these guys will pick up the majority of active AUM. I don't know whether this will prove true or not, but you can certainly make a case for it when Citadel is UP double digits versus the mkt down and most pods are at the very least flat in a down year. This does not mean that the seats become more attractive, if anything there should be more seats and more pods created to go around. I don't have a view on the longevity of this performance but the point is: guys can also make a boatload of $ in the MM seats. A good PM can rake in 7-figures pretty quickly on a growing book, and guys in post-2 year IB/ER seats can be raking in great $ as well. The AUM doesn't really pay the bills here like it might have at Tiger/Melvin but it certainly doesn't stink if you're good.
To recall in 2021 when Tiger was high flying everyone was super negative on pod shops. Price drives narrative unfortunately so be wary of it. To say anyone's "lost their minds" because they're comparing two seats in two fairly different styles of investing is a bit excessive - do you want to join a fund down > 30% in any given year that might see serious redemptions if they can't right the ship within a year or two? Or would you rather take a stab as a young gun with a potential path to PM? There's no right answer but just food for thought...
Main issue here is people actually aren't considering what is right for them lol. People on here routinely talk about making long term career choices based on short term trends without once even taking an inward looking approach and trying to figure out what they will actually enjoy. Also for a profession which celebrates being level headed when things don't look so good and thinking critically, you just wouldn't expect to see people react the way they do to these things. Citadel has a flat year and a couple of SMs are up big next year and what do you think consensus is going to be? Point is people shouldn't really be putting too much weight on short term swings but rather find out what you like and see what is feasible and aligns with it.
Lone pine’s long short fund was down 36% in 2022, more than D1’s. So the only large cub that has fared somewhat well recently is viking
Ty for the help
Remember 10 years ago when the hot funds were Greenlight, Blue Mountain and King Street?
Then a few years later when people laughed at Ackman..
Even better I think a year or so ago someone mentioned that Einhorn could find no UMM/MF PE junior to work for them as he is done and should close up shop already. 18 months later and seems his 5 year track will beat some of the hottest names 3 years ago.
This forum is always crazy, the latest is comparing MF PE to LO PMs two totally different skillsets but since both invest on a longer-term why not.
Honestly props to Einhorn. Surviving all these years to finally get a good year is extremely hard. Talk about mental fortitude
Why would the average UMM or MF Aso want to join a LMM fund, which greenlight effective is nowadays (runs $1B give or take)?
SMs are good for employees/GPs
MMs good for GPs/LPs
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