How is Lone Pine doing post-Mandel?
Know Stephen Mandel is trying to hand over the reins. My understanding is that very few SM funds have successfully pulled off a passing of the torch like this. Does anyone know how Lone Pine is doing now given the leadership transition? Apologies if this has been asked before but I didn't see it.
Unrelated but Kevin S at LP is a beast, one of the best tech investors
Damn his resume is HF chad level. Northwestern -> MS Menlo Tech IB -> TPG Tech PE -> HBS - > Viking -> Eton Park -> Lone Pine MD.
Essentially every investor @ Lone Pine has a similar background lol
If he exits to Tiger he’ll have the perfect career path
What is he doing at LP that makes him good? Specific picks he’s made, and/or parts of his process that you are familiar with?
This guy is joking. He is ass.
Blue chip background at funds that have been balls to the walls long tech for a decade+ in the biggest tech bull market in history. Don't need to "do" much more than that if we're being realistic here.
Bump, also curious
Can’t speak to recent performance but I can count 5-6 senior investment professionals who have departed since Mandel took a step back
It will bleed quickly over the next 5-10 years similar to Greenlight/Perry Cap/Eton Park/TPG Axon in the 2010-2020 period. It’ll be irrelevant in 10 years I bet.
Which non-pod will still be relevant in 10 years
.
What happened to tpg axon
outflows from bad returns and employee turnover. peak aum of 12bn+, now 500mm, most of which if not all is the founder (dinakar)'s own money
How are the spin offs doing?
Looks like they crushed it. +36% in both funds this year. Amazing place to learn coverage without being forced to velocity and risk models.
LOL be careful what you wish for. "Amazing place to learn coverage" you have no idea what you're talking about. Coverage? You mean the 2.5 positions each analyst has on? Gee, I can't think of a better way to get on a path to spin with $1bn in 10 years in an era where LP bid for anything that's not market neutral is nonexistant other than working at Lone Pine covering 3 names, not being forced to learn about risk & portfolio construction, and being KG's toy. Sounds amazing.
Sorry what do you have against KG? Sounds like you have a chip on your shoulder. Yes LPC runs concentrated but that doesn't mean scope of coverage is limited or the analyst expertise is lacking. Said another way: would you rather learn coverage with fear of getting blown up every quarter or harassed on 3% moves and living off of a $150k base.... or being able to ramp properly and patiently and get an analyst buyout offer to go to a top pod if you're good but downside optionality to pitch 10 year AI tech thesis and coast if it turns out you actually suck? I believe you are smart enough to answer this question :)
- I don't have a dog in this fight; I went from MM to SM. When I was at MM I had 9 months to ramp, and it was a much more structured, in-depth, and efficient ramp than the juniors at my current fund do, so not sure what that's about.
- Not sure which MM guys are living on $150k base? My senior analyst MM friends make more than me
- Have you met KG? she's lovely ;)
lone pine base is 100k fyi
Yes but come on this is not IBD or PE. Base doesn't matter. It is the $10mm in bonus per analyst. $15bn AUM at 1/12.5% above 10% hurdle assuming draconian long only economics (they still have some L/S AUM with higher fees). Below HWM can say even half or 6.25% incentive until they recover. A 35% year is 25% x $15bn x 6.25% = $240mm incentive. Plus $150mm base. Partners take 75% and you have $100mm left over to shower 10 junior analysts. So $10mm bonus for 5 years out of undergrad to just research long TSMC.
meanwhile at a pod... work 10-15 years, cover 50 names, have to earn $100mm of sleeve p&l on 0 net exposure to become PM. Then have to earn $100mm+ as PM to get a $10mm payout.
what is the better outcome!
You’re an idiot if you believe that math. I have friends at LPC (with the MD title, not someone that’s a junior analyst). They put up great #s this year and will not make >$10m. Maybe half. Just waving your hand in the air with this WSO math. Get out of here kid.
Are you certain that the partners will only take 75%?
ok but u brought up mm base
juniors at lp are not being paid that much lol
LMAO this is the problem with kids running quick fee math in excel. Everyone is insane to believe that analysts get anywhere close to $10mn just for being along for the ride. Founder takes it all... then partners with stakes in GP. No, they do not see $100mn in fee income and just think "WOW LOOK AT ALL THIS MONEY WE HAVE, THIS ANALYST GETS A MIL, THIS ANALYST GETS A MIL"
Its not Oprah.
How much of that $$$ does an analyst deserve for doing 20 channel checks with VCs every quarter.
The founder looks at it like this: how much of the return did this analyst generate for me this year? I raised all of the money, set the mandate, made the big thematic trades, and the sub-sector they covered was up 30%. How much was beta? How much was it them being assigned to names we've known for DECADES? How much intellectual capital do we lose if they leave? How hard is it to train someone to do what they did for us? How much can they earn if they jump elsewhere?
Maybe a couple million at best at best? $10mn is what good PMs earn at pods.
Yes there are a big pay days in finance and hedge funds, but you have to EARN IT... and usually be earning your stake in the fee pool contractually. This happens at pods most obviously, but SMs as well. From there, depends on how much you demonstrate your value to seniors.
Young people don't realize how much a $3mn payday is... even when $100mn in fees are there to go around.
Lone Cypress lost 7% in 2021 and 36% in 2022. Up 20% in 2023 and 36 in 2024.
0.930.641.2*1.36=0.97, still below HWM, the magic of geometric return
And Lone Cascade 2021 up 1%, 2022 down 42% 2023 up 32% 2024 up 36%. 1.010.581.32*1.36=1.05, barely above HWM
and they're STILL seeing incremental redemption requests despite being up 36% (articles haven't hit yet, my wife works in IR)...what does that tell you about the future of SMs/Tiger Cubs?
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