It's gonna get worse from here
Been noticing that I no longer see any big AMZN boxes in my apartment complex. I live in SF and the apartments here in my complex are all 1 million plus in terms of price. I wouldn't be surprised if AMZN pulls out what SNAP did this week. Nobody is spending any money. The consumer is actually dying.
Idk if you noticed but net put delta is still at low levels. My system is saying that puts are cheap actually when you look at GXV. Only 3 times this year has my system said that puts are cheap (on January 6th and then on 4/20). Algo is spitting out 3530 target on SPX for May 31st. Usually it's correct but the this time around the target is way lower than usual which has really scared me. I would take it with a grain of salt but I wouldnt fade it. Bunch of ppl are trying to long markets right now thinking 7 weeks of red. Probably means more margin calls this week
much worse
the one dude who threw monkey crap at me probably is long
What factors does your algo account for? I’m a discretionary investor with no knowledge of algos, would love to learn how comprehensive an algo must be
It mainly looks at historical info on net put delta buying, VIX, GXV, how expensive tails are vs the realized moves that we are making in a rolling 5 day window. Rn puts are incredibly cheap considering the moves that we have made in the past 5 days. Putting all of those together (low NPD + high realized moves) only gives you a few instances in the past 20 years. One of them was November of 2018 before the big sell. The other was triggered on October 10, 2008. A signal was also triggered around March 5th, 2020. That's about it in terms of prior instances that align with current market data.
A week ago puts were not this cheap. I'm net short on SPY puts far out (think 2-3 year timeframe) but I am long SPX puts in the short term along with VIX calls. Short term I'm hedged long term I'm bullish on market. Basically like Buffett but a tad bit more sophisticated when it comes to this strategy. I run multiple different strategies but this one is the one i have specifically for SPX/SPY.
I bought 2k in EOW expiry SPY puts today and am having an overnight watch party looking at futures. Just curious, why would puts be cheap right before the storm? Seems counterintuitive. Perhaps the storm is a direct result of investors being overconfident and not hedging their bets? If that were true, that would mean this lack of buyer interest in puts would be a direct reason for the incoming leg down (wouldn’t just merely be a byproduct or symptom).
LOL EU/US is DEAD and following JAPAN.
Start moving your bodies and capital to CHINA, the CENTER of the WORLD in 20-30 years.
Note: for all the China bears (but muh democracy and muh birth rates), the Chinese are literally drafting policies to force birth rates through borderline rape.
what are these policies?
ive been saying this for time ppl keep saying the s&p aLWaYs reCOveRs, well yes you fool the last decade makes you all feel like geniuses but the whole reason the S&P was always able to recover was because the 20th century was america's golden age.
obvs i want that to continue but idt ppl realise that while america is not losing power in absolute terms, it is in relative terms (china is catching up, fast). and if it does, and if it manages to beat down america's economy, the s&p wont keep going up forever. obvs it prolly wont just collapse and america will still be a superpower, but it's not cut and dry as ppl seem to think
Virgin WSOer watching AMZN boxes in his condo thinking he's smart vs Chad buysiders using spy satellites to count the number of AMZN delivery vans driving in and out of fulfillment centers each quarter.
3530 with 7 DTE??? I'm with you on the overall bearish outlook, but that quickly??? Is it not showing signs of early support at 3850?
If we're talking about other evidence, I was reading an article about how the BNPL places are having layoffs. That sent chills down my spine. Let me say it again for the kids in the back - the places that are making it stupid "cheap" for consumers to make purchases are having layoffs. That should scare every investor in America.
Recession confirmed, US GDP to contract 18% this year, China to double the size of US + EU + NATO GDP by 2024.
You are noticing AMZN boxes not piling up because now people can actually go out to brick & mortar stores and buy items, and they are now able to spend all the cash they accumulated over the last two years on trips, restaurants, and services.
I'll take out of touch statements for $500 Alex
I can't quickly find super recent data, but as of September the median checking account balance was 40% higher than September 2019. Moody's estimated there was $2.5 trillion in overall excess savings in October 2021 and that it'd "only" decrease by $50bn / month through 2022 from there.
Two days ago Jamie Dimon was saying how strong the US consumer still is. Restaurants in my medium sized city are PACKED. Disneyworld is packed. Flight bookings are up double digits vs pre-pandemic (despite fares being up 20% - and this doesn't even account for business travel probably being a fraction of what it was in 2019).
OP referred to million dollar homes…
maybe ur seeing less amazon packages because they're understaffed and its taking a longer time for them to deliver the packages
What’s the catalyst for a -11% downside move? Should I hedge? I am levered long
No Chase Coleman, never hedge
AMZN stock is going through a 20:1 split on June 3rd. I was actually thinking of buying a share or two tomorrow at this price. Thinking the retail investors will buy it when they see the lower price, even though they may or may not understand that the fundamentals/valuations don't change due to a stock split. Still think it will give the stock a short term boost for a decent trade.
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