Old timers: what was it like during GFC?
For older industry participants who were around or investing during 2009 (when most in the industry were in middle school/HS/college), what was vol like? last few weeks have been painful unless you got out of the stage 4 breakdowns quickly but seems less so than 2009
During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), volatility was extreme and the environment was highly stressful for market participants. Based on the most helpful WSO content, here are some key insights:
Volatility and Market Conditions:
Stress and Uncertainty:
Flight to Quality:
Lessons Learned:
Comparison to Recent Volatility:
In summary, the GFC was a period of extreme volatility, widespread stress, and significant lessons for those who endured it. The current environment, while challenging, doesn’t yet mirror the systemic dysfunction of 2008-2009.
Sources: A Decade Into IB: Teetering on the Edge of Cataclysm?, Distressed Investing: This Time It's Different, 08' Recession - How bad was it really?, What's it like?, Restructuring Outlook: The Hottest Product Group in Banking
No need to go that far back.. there were 2-3 weeks during March 2020 at the worst of Covid where the SPY would move 5-10% daily.
Wasn't working at a HF then but I do stare at those numbers all the time, can't exactly miss them in a backtest, and the last few weeks aren't even close.
We were days away from ATMs not working
started in s&t on the mortgage desk at one of the BBs in 07, think first quarter after I started the firm lost $2bn and CEO got fired…
2008 was just a special kind of beast, the Monday after Lehman bankruptcy I remember Goldman stock dropping from $160 to $80, Morgan Stanley fell from $35 to $5, basically wasn’t gonna make it past Tuesday. What’s comical is TARP failed the vote the first time and DOW dropped like 700 pts or something (much bigger deal back then). There was no trading going on as counterparty risk was through the roof and nobody knew if they still had a job anymore.
Damn that title hurts... when did I become an old timer? Not a HF'er and not related to volatility, but still may be of interest to some. I did get started in 2008 but on the commercial banking side of things (Main Street regional, not a money-center bank). My recollections:
Today is nothing like 2008/2009. Absent some kind of exogenous shock, I don't see today becoming that bad, either. Hopefully.
Great reply. I remember that dividend cut being 87%*, causing the last leg down in spoos and my silver nextel getting a call from my girlfriend who just found her Dad's body.
I know 2 guys who worked during that era who had coworkers that killed themselves. So there's that.
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