Also who tf at Tiger thought it was a good idea holding the hugely overpriced stocks at the peak of the covid times like PTON, ZOOM, etc. they were valued at like 50-100x revenues and some were even still losing money. Like what kind of returns were they expecting holding those companies at those valuations. Like I don’t even work there but I saw this coming miles away. If I was a LP I would seriously be questioning their investment judgement right now 

 

Sorry, but if they did just a bit of fundamental analysis, they would've figured out that on companies like PTON there was absolutely nothing proprietary about the business (a commodity hardware equipment that could be replicated), and  thus they were clearly over-earning with respect to ROIC (which is where the stock return converges to over a long term investment horizon). They just did a bad job on security selection, sorry man 

 
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Assume if you invested in PTON you thought the content and brand value was "proprietary", in the same way a LULU or NKE is "proprietary". Not defending the long here but you could have easily crafted a thesis that COVID was going to permanently change fitness trends, PTON could create more products to expand TAM beyond bike/treadmill, could renegotiate better music streaming fees given scale leading to better margins, etc. I've never looked at the company so I assume there's more.

20/20 hindsight

 
Pizz

Sorry, but if they did just a bit of fundamental analysis, they would've figured out that on companies like PTON there was absolutely nothing proprietary about the business (a commodity hardware equipment that could be replicated), and  thus they were clearly over-earning with respect to ROIC (which is where the stock return converges to over a long term investment horizon). They just did a bad job on security selection, sorry man 

Besides the 20/20 hindsight point, the thesis for PTON may have been the hardware / COVID TAM initially but certainly was not that ultimately when these funds invested. It was about having an extremely high margin recurring subscription stream with extremely high LTV/CAC economics. Of course this is starting to fall apart with churn assumptions being wrong and hardware lead growth not keeping up. 
 

But you have to give these guys a bit more credit than falling for a simple commoditized hardware trend.

 

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