25 Comments
 

Maybe I am just being naive, but can someone help me understand why their portfolio looks exactly like a college student portfolio could look like? Biggest positions are Netflix, amazon, Microsoft, alphabet, meta, tmobile, uber, visa...

Why would someone pay 2/20 to have someone buy you faang basically? At least if you bought faang you would hold apple that is doing decent 

What sort of differentiated view are they having?

 

Isn't this the guy that was constantly making 30-40 million dollars at viking?

 
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I agree that a lot of people don't always deserve their 2/20 and many managers have been sitting in big tech and gotten crushed, but it would be naive to assume that someone who did very well at Viking is sitting complacently in these positions. Most 13fs aren't very accurate because managers will window dress at end of quarters, they tend to trade frequently, and take on tons of synthetic positions that the 13fs don't capture (also 13fs are backwards looking but that is obvious). He is probably long a bunch of other positions and short a ton of other positions that we don't see. The portfolio looks like a beta call but that could purely be a snapshot in time. It is really hard to tell. On the other hand, there is a chance that he is getting smoked and just sitting in FANG, but I find it hard to believe that. 

 

I don’t think he was making $30mm. I’ve heard maybe a fifth of that at Viking.

 

This guy constantly gets brought up all the time. He must think it’s hilarious.
 

Anyway - who knows wtf he has in his non disclosed short books so don’t just go around assuming. Maybe he’s short a ton of SE. Maybe he cut everything into their prints. We just don’t know. But if I really had to guess, he must be down on the year like all his other cubbies just cause…

 

Agreed. If he had significant short exposure, it’d have to be through swaps or something that doesn’t show up in RAUM, though, because his RAUM is about $1.6bn vs. long securities held of about $1.5bn. Of course this is out-of-date so who knows

 

you guys grossly overestimate the "sophistication" of trade structuring these guys do

most of these tigers were just analysts who picked longs and shorts. theyre not doing crazy synthetics and theyre def not overly concerned about disguising positions

sure theyre trading around core positions but it means being long $150m of META into earnings instead of $200m and calling that risk management

 

What percentage of funds do you think take on synthetic positions or use stuff like basket swaps then? I assumed most funds do some of that at the very least for tax purposes (ex: move the position to a LT capital gain when you have effectively already sold it, so still shows up on 13f), but maybe what I have heard is wrong. Although the tiger cub analysts aren't the trader type when comparing to a MM PM when it comes to investment style, I feel like their designated trader could easily do this stuff no? Just seems improbable that it is accurate snapshot, but maybe I am giving him/them too much faith here. 

 

as of early sep, bbg reported viking's HF as being -4% YTD. tiger, lone pine, etc's HFs (more 'buy and hold') were in the range of -50%, with their LOs being -60%. point being, viking is def more trading oriented & hedged than the the avg cub. don't have any intel, but with grant not only having come from viking but also being one of the most successful analysts/PMs in viking's history, i'd be shocked if he were down materially on the year / just blindly long the names on his 13F

 

 don't have any intel, but with grant not only having come from viking but also being one of the most successful analysts/PMs in viking's history, i'd be shocked if he were down materially on the year / just blindly long the names on his 13F

I don’t necessarily disagree with you. But this logic doesn’t really hold up given D1 is down ~40% YTD. 

 

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