22 Comments
 

There was an interesting study done recently about how PMs that drive maximum horsepower cars (expensive cars) are usually characterized by sensation seeking and therefore are more risk-on, hence performing poorly relative to their Honda Accord driving PMs who are (according to the data) much more risk averse and perform better. So to answer your question, if you want to see a great PM, look at the car they drive.

 
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A few commonalities I've noticed from observing great PMs:

1) Meta-cognition / self-awareness: knows own strengths and weaknesses (intellectual, behavioral), learns from mistakes and compounds investment skill over time; recognizes and controls own fear & greed and takes advantage

2) Intuitive understanding of asymmetry: does this investment really offer a far greater reward than the downside risk scenario playing out?

3) Nuanced thinkers: investment thesis expressed with sophisticated rationale - a crude thesis might read "Company X has low P/E and P/B , their manufacturing division is growing so buy the stock"; a more sophisticated thesis might read "Company X might appear superficially cheap on a multiple basis, but high debt levels and unforgiving covenants jeopardize the transfer of free cash flow to the stockholder, furthermore in a low barrier to entry industry (due to cheap entry licenses/irrelevance of brand value) future earning streams could be vastly overstated"

4) Long term orientation: Buffet, Klarman, Michael Burry etc. all can tolerate short term pain for long term gain (hard to do when angry clients are on the phone). Long term investing cuts out the noise and day to day random fluctuations of the market. How many GREAT investors are successful trading on a day by day or even quarter by quarter basis?

5) Intellect: Important, but by no means decisive on its own; see spectacular downfalls of ultra high IQ Victor Niederhoffer and "look at all muh Nobel prizes " Long Term Capital Management

 

Soros, Tudor Jones druckenmiller count as outperforming? Many ways to play the game. I think most of your thoughts are hogwash.

Also buffet and Klarman I don’t think they outperform anymore. I would be interested in seeing baupost recent performance since 2012. I have a feeling his style no longer works. His public comments seem to be missing a lot of ideas.

 

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