Bloomberg with Jan / Feb performance and mlp / citadel hurting a little bit. Would think they are / were over indexed to momentum - curious thoughts
Fund Feb. Return (%) YTD Return (%) Balyasny 0.9 3.5 Schonfeld 0 2.2 Millennium -1.3 -0.8 ExodusPoint 0.7 2.75 Citadel -1.7 -0.3
It's one month, who knows
Heard they hired too many teenagers off WSO
Thought those guys made the best pms
The teenagers were too good and competed away all the excess returns
My expert insight (a twitter comment I saw) was that equities and rates were drags at citadel
Makes sense on both fronts I think. The consensus trade, which is often the right trade a lot of the time, was probably along the lines of the curve continuing to steepen? That has changed course as of late. Also seen some changes in course on EU but maybe thats too recent
On equities as well, if you look at this past earnings season, been seeing some f degrossing the winners/losers on EPS beats/misses. Tough tape to be in. EPS beats and day of moves haven't followed through, and the macro pushed a lot of stuff around + the obvious momentum unwind. My gut says getting the KPIs right this past earnings seasons didnt drive much predictability into the next few days of market moves. Nailing 2025 guidance probably tough and balancing momentum on names with bars being fairly high, and most of the consensus trades falling apart.
Eh maybe that degrossing was more just the momentum unwind and everyone running cover anyways to protect books idk
Mostly talking out my ass here though
yeah i think everyone was just long the stockies that went uppy - and uhh when they go down not fun
shieeeeet
TTF (EU Gas)
I can guarantee you these guys are massively long TTF and they probably have been getting hammered.
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No you're definitely correct I think, but very good chance these guys are also just massively long
I can't seem to find the latest COT for TTF. How long are we speaking, and do you think they are still massively long since February's high?
Seems to be index rebal taking a huge hit
heard APP was a big part of their losses
I think that strategy / srbl got smoked in 2022 on Russell weightings - I guess they must really print $$$ in the good years but sounds like pretty crowded
article on BBG that MLP lost 900 mil on two pods doing index rebal considering there aum of 75b this accounts for pretty much of their losses
I'm not familiar with index rebalancing, but it appears other funds have been utilizing this strategy, which can crowd the strategy and eat away alpha. Whatever company is added or removed from the index, is it usually announced prior, or are these guys just taking a gamble on which will list and delist?
I think it tends to be quite a quantitative trade - you would spend most of the year trying to find strong predictors that a company is entering / exiting the index, and as rebal season approaches spend your time accumulating your position.
Index providers themselves normally announce which companies are being added / removed well in advance of it actually happening, but by the time they do that the alpha's gone.
gappy did a pretty good twitter thread breaking down index rebal strat, basically hard to hedge out mom factor…
just shows how much srbl and pratik madhvani print in the good years, for them to lose a yard and still have their jobs lol
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