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• 2022 was like a salmon-filled river in the Canadian wilderness—a bear’s paradise, and clearly, we’re far from hibernation as 2023 keeps the bad vibes going, sending the mighty Apple under a $2tn valuation
• Well, at least it wasn’t just you and me who lost a ton of money last year; hedge posted funds some of their worst returns since ‘08—schadenfreude FTW!
• How can we expect Congress to govern us when they can’t even govern themselves??
• Bills safety Damar Hamlin remains in critical condition as of last night after suffering cardiac arrest and collapsing on the field during Monday night’s game against the Bengals

Constructing a (Hopefully) Better Economy

Newsflash: home builders want you living on the street.

Or at least, that’s what November’s newly released construction spending data shows. The egregiously lagging indicator has finally dropped, and although a seemingly narrow metric, construction spend is a great starting point for diagnosing an economy.

If you’re like me, November feels as though it was in like 2014. But alas, it really was only two months ago. Now that economists have had enough time to learn how to count, we can dive into the month’s construction data. Some highlights include:

• Overall construction spend rose 0.2%, drastically outpacing October’s 0.2% fall
• Outlays for all private construction rose 0.3% after falling 0.7% in October
• Spend on private, non-residential constructions like oil and gas drilling rose 1.7%
• Multi-family spending rose 2.4%, while the same for single-family homes fell 2.9%

All told, the report was pretty “meh.” There was a brief moment after the report where we thought the Econ Gods looked down and granted us some reprieve from the macro horrors of the last year, but as usual in the 2020s, we were sorely mistaken.

Sure, an overall increase in construction spending is great. But splicing the data allows us to tell the story that matters.

And the important part, as it relates to, well, everyone, is that single-family home spending number. A not-even 3% fall might not seem like much, but talk to me in 10 years when you’re looking to buy a home. Construction investments now pay off much later, and as most of us reading (and writing) this can’t even spell “house” yet, we need all the spending there that we can get. But, with mortgage rates still clocking in at an average 30-year fixed of 6.27%, both building and buying a new home seem far less appetizing.

If you’re a home builder, when rates rise, so does your cost of borrowing to build. But, at the same time, the prices of those houses you build will fall as higher rates reduce demand, dragging down your profit margins with it. As a result, when rates rise, homebuilders run away faster than college kids when the RA knocks on the door.

But at the same time, rising rates also tank supply from home sellers as no one wants to sell their house at a markdown. For most Americans, their home is their largest asset—both physically and financially—and taking a markdown on something like that is an economic nightmare for families, especially those in the HELOC market.

As always, there are two sides to every story. Investments growing around oil and natty gas production in the U.S. is likely a direct response to a certain not-so-friendly neighbor’s actions over in eastern Europe. Producing more at home allows us to line the pockets of fewer and fewer oligarchs, which is a W I’m willing to take.

Wynn Resorts ($WYNN) ↑ 3.81% ↑

• A win is a win…is Wynn—at least, that’s the case today after seeing shares surge nearly 4% yesterday on upbeat news from analysts at Wells Fargo.
• While the bank is out here paying $3.7bn for abusing customers once again, analysts at Wells Fargo are staying busy tossing out upgrades. The lucky winner yesterday? Wynn Resorts; getting a bump from its China exposure.
• Despite being an absolute mess right now, markets are all about the future, and the fact that China will recover at some point is all the reason we needed to send shares on a ride on Tuesday.

Amazon ($AMZN) ↑ 2.17% ↑

• Talk about putting the team on your back. Yesterday, Amazon essentially rescued the entire Consumer sector from drowning under the weight of Tesla’s massive selloff, ensuring they weren’t too embarrassed in front of all the sectors on the first trading day of 2023.
• Shares popped off on, like Wynn, a little help from the firm’s sell-side friends. Yet another firm, Loop, has named the e-commerce and cloud computing giant a “Top Idea” for 2023 as it sees the firm as “well-positioned” going into 2023.
• With enthusiasm like that, might as well start the bottle popping now.