FAA's NOTAM Nosedive | The Daily Peel | 1/12/23

• This CNBC headline is either going to look really stupid (as usual) or have everyone calling the author Michael Burry once 8:30 am rolls around
• Nelson Peltz wants all the smoke. And his next target? Mickey Mouse
• Even Subway doesn't like their rubber-infused sandwiches. The company that disgraces the very word "sandwich" is going up for sale (LFG)
• Good news! The guy behind the counter at the gas station this morning probably didn't think you were as awkward as you felt

If you thought the Lorax hated killing trees, just wait until you hear about this…

Going virtual saves paper, which might save some trees, but prices offered by other virtual data room providers will just turn around and kill your business instead.

Not FirmRoom. Like the Lorax of VDR providers, FirmRoom is so dedicated to saving the trees and your business that you'll wonder how they're even profitable.

Speaking of profits, how would your business like another $80M in the bank? That's how much the beautiful geniuses at FirmRoom have saved other companies in the past year, why not get in on that?

It's irresponsible not to. And that's exactly why top 10 firm's in IB, PE, and Law almost universally trust FirmRoom for all their VDR needs. Think those companies are gonna waste a penny? Exactly.

With 50 gig data plans for just $1,195/mo, you'll be able to run over 500,000 pages for nearly 1/100th the cost of any other VDR provider.

So, why are you still reading this? Save the trees and your business with FirmRoom and all that sweet, sweet storage they offer.

Start saving now. Check out our per-page pricing calculator to calculate how much money you, or your client, can save with FirmRoom.

We Might Be Alright

Sorry, Kendrick, hope it's Alright if I paraphrase that legendary bar. It's for Macro Monkey, though, so at least it's for a good cause.

Not only that, but that paraphrase is about as accurate as we can get when we take a bird's eye view of the 2023 US economy and what we may have the privilege of experiencing over the next 11.5 months.

And that just happens to be exactly what we're talking about today. The bear vibes are bumming me out, and we've spread far more than our fair share of doom, gloom, and FUD lately. Today, let's take a walk on the wild side.

Our journey begins with a simple question: What if we actually pull off the soft landing?

Speaking very generally, a "soft landing" could roughly be described as a material drop in inflation without skyrocketing unemployment, a financial market meltdown, a housing collapse, or anything of the systemic sort. Gotta say, JPow, so far, so good.

December's jobs report showed us that while yes, the labor market is loosening up a tad, finding a job is still like finding a needle in a needlestack. Finding a job you like, that might be a different story…

The point is that airing out the job market should clear us of most of that deadly wage-driven inflation we've been seeing since way back when Donnie T was still on Twitter. But, keeping jobs relatively easy to find compared to "normal" economic times bodes well for consumer spending. The Goldilocks labor market just may be upon us.

Another thing that has Wall Street professionals curled up in the fetal position when they get home is the 3-month-and10-year yield inversion. Meanwhile, just over a week ago, the guy who first pointed out the thing said that this period's inversion "is flashing a false signal." Take it with a grain of salt, but his main reasons include the following:

• Strong job growth persisting amid slowdowns in wage growth
• Behavioral changes brought on simply by awareness of the inversion's predictive power ("the trend has vanished, killed by its own discovery")
• Real rates for 3-month and 10-year treasuries are almost definitely non-inverted

That last one is an "almost" because there just are no 3-month breakeven inflation rates like there are for the 10-year and others. Using the latest CPI data, according to Yahoo, the 3-month real rate would be negative while the 10-year's is at 1.5%.

Lastly, and this is entirely conjecture (as if everything before wasn't), but if we do see a recession in '23, then this is the most obvious economic downturn literally of all time. Building off that second bullet above, when everyone sees an economic storm coming, they tend to batten down the hatches, which inevitably will change their eventual outcome. What if not just the Fed but pretty much all US businesses too reacted appropriately to avoid such a downturn?

Maybe, just maybe. As I said, today is a day for some much-needed optimism. Let the positive vibes reign; just please don't raise my rates by more than 25bps <3.

Amazon ($AMZN) ↑ 5.81% ↑

• Following in the footsteps of AWS, shares in Amazon are heading to the clouds. The stock gained nearly 6% today as Jassy & Co. start to eye the $1tn mark again.
• Really all this year actually, Amazon has kind of been on a tear and a much-needed one after last year's 50% march to the morgue. Analysts at Cowen used their sell-side powers to drive much of yesterday's gains, coming out with a fresh buy recommendation but lowering their price target at the same time.
• To be fair, that price target was lowered from $160 to $140, still a more than 50% gain from here. Moreover, maintaining their buy rating displays confidence despite a lowering target price.
• It's as if Wall Street is suddenly waking up and realizing it's not 2022 anymore. As headwinds subside and recession fears (very, very mildly) fade, the former bookseller is hoping to enter a Brave New World.

Microsoft ($MSFT) ↑ 3.02% ↑

• What? I told you large-cap growth led the way. What did you expect??
• Speaking of an early-year recovery for big tech, Microsoft is up well over 10% since mid-November, definitively outperforming that bum, the S&P 500.
• Without any truly driving cause, shares have been gaining on the same kind of return to optimism that seems present in $AMZN shares.
• Oh yeah, you know that ChatGPT your loser nerd friends keep talking about? Well, Microsoft is looking to 10x its investment in the firm, giving investors a way to get public market exposure to the most promising tech company since…Microsoft. That sure is one way to make shares excel (lmao, you're welcome).