2022 M&A Outlook
Hi, curious to see what everyone's thoughts are for 2022 M&A. Seeing a bit of a slow down in our group (MM HC) but don't know if it's just a Q1 hangover from 2021 volumes. Sounds like consensus is that activity will be down from 2021 but not too bad overall. Some factors driving this slowdown:
- Continued war in Ukraine could pose economic issues
- Runaway inflation risk
- Increasing rates will weigh on valuations
- Lower quality assets coming to market that didn't get attention in 2021
Counters:
- Lots of PE money still to be deployed
- Fed thinks the economy is still strong
I think will still be a good year. Maybe not as good as the last couple without all the SPACs.
Good amount of dry powder out there. Lots of funds raised over the last few years that need to deploy and strategics, at least in my coverage, have built up pretty substantial warchests for acquisitions.
Valuations are coming off + above point on dry powder = consolidation and opportunistic M&A. For example, sectors that got the "COVID bump" like digital health
If higher rates weigh down private / VC allocations, we may see the pace of that segment slow down. I deal mostly with private cos and the incentive to sell was very low given the abundance of private capital. If that tap goes off, may see more assets in market. Quality TBD
Will be interesting to see though what happens with higher rates. The days of slapping on leverage and sitting back to make bank are shifting yet sponsors are under the gun to deploy. I think the true operators / value creators will shine and the financial engineers will obviously need to get more creative.