Anyone else sensing a doom and gloom situation where 2020 sa programs are delayed or cancelled due to coronavirus? I have already heard of lots of college’s study abroad programs cancelled in Asia and more recently Italy. If Japan cancels summer olympics, anything is possible.
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Interested in knowing as well. I would imagine most SA are at school in the states?
It's over
Thanks God, someone with common sense.
For me all this nonsense is the definitive proof that most of the people is completely ignorant and that they like to be manipulated and/or told how to think. It looks like it's difficult for most of them to think by themselves.
Love people wearing the masks as a preventative measure while the CDC says it is essentially pointless
Why would China do strict quarantine for >700 million people if “it’s just the flu bro”
I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but a couple factors not mentioned.
Hopefully we get info that the death rate is much lower, a vaccine is created, or the spread of the disease does not accelerate. But there are real concerns if all three here continue.
I would guess that one of the three break and we end up fine. My bigger concern is how fast that happens because in the interim business will slow down since our only method to stop spreading the disease right now is to lock ourselves at home which will crater corporate profits
Edit: thought this was the thread talking about impact on markets. My bad. Your SA offer will be fine. Barring shit hitting the fan and huge recession, I wouldn’t spend time worrying about it.
I was starting to panic then read your last two line lol
Wait why is it different for the flu? Isn't flu numbers based on confirmed cases too? How do you know how many people have flu infections?
Think you're being too confident here. Flu has both cures specifically designed to combat it and vaccines, which can prevent rapid spreading.
The problem with the COVID-2019 is that it's more contagious than the flu while at the same time causing more infected patients to be in serious conditions and therefore require hospitalization. Once the healthcare system is flooded with infected patients, the fatality rate could rise much higher; also, people who need medical treatments for other illness/disease might no longer have access to them in a overwhelmed healthcare system. This is the scenario we should really worry about.
This was exactly what happened in Wuhan, currently in Iran and Italy.
What? You think Coronavirus is just another flu and is "overblown as fuck"? Hahaha. You're an idiot, just like your president, and you should be kicked out of pre-med before you do any more damage to your society. I live in Beijing and most companies have already made their entire workforce work remotely from home. Japan and Korea are doing the same, although to a different degree. Do you guys in the States even see whats happening in Europe? Let's see how well you guys deal with this "overblown as fuck" flu :) Sure will be a fun watch from across the pacific.
Korea has the most tests per capita now, and is reporting a death rate of 0.7%. With more tests, the death rate will converge towards the death rate of seasonal flu. China did a great job, given very limited info about the new virus, but at what cost? I don't think US needs to freeze their economy
You idiot even if death rate is in line with the flu if it's 10x as infectious, as you can infer from shit going on in Italy, it's going to be just as bad.
Short this moron's career.
But you haven't factored in the severity of coronavirus vs flu. Most people have built immunity to the flu or at least have the choice to go get a flu shot and be safe for the season, but obviously we don't have that for COVID-19. Plus in even mild cases you can develop life-long ailments like permanent respiratory damage.
The problem is not the death rate but how quickly the virus spreads. Take the example of the South Korean patient 31. She went to two church services before being diagnosed and now 1,300 church members have flu-like symptons, of which hundreds have been diagnosed with the coronavirus. This happened in a matter of days.
Japan just announced that it would close all elementary, junior high, and high schools through the end of March in order to limit the potential spread of coronavirus.
Will banks risk that interns will bring the virus to its headquarters and infect its IB teams? Will banks require that interns take body temperature day 1 of internship? Will banks ask if intern has traveled outside of the country (or require that intern not travel) in the prior 30 days of start date?
I mean I could see some of those measures being taken if the virus spreads to Nyc, but highly doubt anything happens otherwise
Whether or not the coronavirus is overblown, losing close to 15% of the equity market in one week has ramifications for IBD revenue. Issuances, especially equity (although higher yielding debt products as well) will be put off. Companies will suffer from supply chain disruptions etc. The impact may well be temporary but none of this is positive.
Is the ronavirus sexually transmitted as well? I want to clap some MD cheeks.
I'm definitely worried as well. Anything is possible, especially a low return offer rate
Might make you're summer a little busier if you're working in Restructuring.
My placement day in mid April just got cancelled. HR said we have to participate virtually which is a real bummer
Announced today (not IB but I'm sure that will come soon):
JPMorgan Chase has begun sending hundreds of its traders and salespeople in New York and London to backup locations as Wall Street girds itself for the arrival of coronavirus.
The bank plans on moving approximately half its sales and trading staff in New York and London to a pair of backup locations near each city.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/jpmorgan-moving-traders-to-backup-offic…</a">https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/jpmorgan-moving-traders-to-backup-offic…
Hmm I wonder if all the BB's will start doing this. Definitely a little worrying. Could SA's internships be moved to backup locations?
A few of us were chatting on the floor and speculating that there might not be an office for interns to go to as this spirals out of control. Most likely would just bypass the internship and extend offers to everyone / no one. Anyway that’s our speculation
Fuck me that would be insane lmao...for either choice...
that'd be a dream - if they just offered everyone
Not sure why people feel so confident (american exceptionalism in play? No clue), but the virus will hit America harder than other developed nations because the US has
1) a lot of homeless people (US only issue) 2) a lot of people without sick leave (US only issue) 3) a lot of people without health insurance (US only issue) 4) a lot of illegal immigrants who are afraid of ICE (US only issue) 5) no government subsidized COVID-19 testing (US only issue) 6) An administration that mostly downplay the threat (US only issue)
and all of these issues will aid the spread of COVID-19. This virus spreads really, really fast. Hubei, China reported its first case in mid Jan, and its 68k cases in mid Feb, and this is even AFTER Wuhan city (with over 11mm population, just a little bigger than NYC) was shutdown in late Jan.
At this point, we are in the dark of how many cases exist in the US. Remember when China first reported that there are ~150 cases and BBC and CNN reported that China under reported should really be around thousands of cases based on their disease model? Yes, turned out it was true. China just didn't have enough testing kits back then. The US is literarily repeating the same shit that China went through just a mount ago. We have close to 20 death now in the US and only over a hundred cases? come on. there should be thousands of cases. I hope I am wrong, but I know I am likely to be right. Once the outbreak hit the news, fear will further spread, and Trump will change his tone because he has the weight between stock market and crisis management
As you guys sit there and boost about how the death rate is closer to flu, the WHO already adjusted death rate upward, to 3.4%. But you do have a point. Death rate is not the real issue here. It's how fast it spreads, and the fear it brought among people. It's 3.4% for everybody, but when you are sick, you either die, or you live, and it's not up to you. Think about it.
I think the death rate will be much lower in the end. As of right now we are only counting the people who have tested postive for COVID19 and the postive tests who have died from the virus. I have a strong belief that there are way more people who have the virus and do not even know it. I think the denomintator is much greater than we currently think it is, which would make the fatality rate go down. We won't know any of this until way further down the road when they can study the antibodies and really learn more about the virus/estimate how many people actually got it.
My conclusions are the same. Other items include 1) social stigma for wearing masks 2) high penetration of antiscience belief among general populace and politicians (antivax, climate change) 3) very reactionary cultural mindset vs other cultures 4) weak trust in authority 5) civil liberties and lack of quarantine controls 6) weak tsa and border control and high quantity of flights daily 7) normalcy bias in the population / exceptionalism mindset (greatest hc in the world, etc)
Case in point for the item regarding testing incoming travelers:
https://twitter.com/julialindau/status/1235714275752267776?s=19
Ok now you guys are starting to scare me. Will this really effect the process/return offers for those in NYC? Or this largely overblown, or rather would the real concern just be how to market has been reacting so poorly recently and this would affect SA offers most? I know it’s literally out of my control and there’s nothing I can do but I can’t help but begin to panic.
You are so screwed. Sorry buddy.
I hope all the interns fail miserably in their career goals! Lol
.
If anyone has any legitimate insight into how this will effect SA internships/ return offers please comment. I think most of us are panicking and would like any bit of clarity.
I have a very numbers approach to the issue, I am thinking of the following - this is not very polically correct though.
Here's the thing I don't get: - The death rate is actually heavily skewed toward eldedrly people. Most if not 99.99% of the active population (below 60-65 yrs old), has nothing to worry about unless they already have heath issues. - The fact that it may kill depending on estimates up to 130m of elederly people will reduce the strain that developped economies have due to pension deficits. Furthermore there is a wealth concentration for people of that age. So effectively should it kill people that are retired, it will 1) reduce the financial strain and 2) increase assets of younger people and should help them access property ownership etc.
Thus unless people and the economy just shuts down (because yes most politicians are in the range where they could die so they are scared of it), most of us on this forum from students all the way to Directors (let's not include MD's in case there is this one lifer that is over 60) have nothing to worry about and should keep living normally and we should be all fine. But because there is this over reaction by everyone - traditonal human behavior btw - the impact will be much greater than if it was actually presented as a bit worse than usual flu and people kept doing whatever they do.
All of y’all downplaying the impact this will have on the society are not focusing on the key issues- how are people and govts going to react? For heavy affected areas we are seeing massive seizures in economic activity and movement of people. They are shutting down manufactured supply chains, and things like hospitality (vacancy rates in Milan and Venice in the stratosphere), transportation, retail, discretionary consumer, theme parks, sporting events are seeing major fallout.
What happens when these corporations have upcoming debt service they cannot handle? They go bk and credit investors go into a panic. They are less forgiving on others tripping covenants and suddenly the whole credit markets go into shock.
Permanent damage to certain firms with investor and capital provider trust burnt. Even if there are govt actions to provide bailouts it will be extremely painful.
Note I am long SPX puts with a substantial amount of my portfolio as of the post Super Tuesday news so I am affected by my own confirmation biases.
The market decided to rally on the Super Tuesday Biden win and the prior day 50bps rate cut and I thought the index was fundamentally mispriced given the uncertainty regarding near term cash flows so I bought cheaper puts that I could have otherwise
You lost me at covenants
Is that because so much for the credit market is cov lite?
Lenders won't go into panic, because it's an economic shock due to force majeure and not negligence / incompetence / a broken business model. This isn't a credit crisis a la subprime, where it was clear that the underlying business model was rotten.
Simplistically speaking, the consumer business model works as follows - as long as people don't get sick en masse (like it's been proven now), they consume. When they suddenly get sick en masse, they can't consume anymore, but the point is that people are heavily inclined not to get sick. The whole insurance industry wouldn't exist if this basic consumer premier wasn't satisfied.
The financial system will be fine with respect to the credit markets going into shock. Since the crisis we have the PDCF, CPFF, TALF, PMCCF, etc. all to backstop corporate and bank lending needs. There will be restructuring and defaults but not another 2008.
Well yeah I wrote that before they cut rates a second time
Ugghhhh. Amherst college is shutting down. Students told to pack up and leave like they are leaving for the summer. Wtf
Not looking good for summer internships
Summer internships could very well be canceled.
Just ask any analyst who found himself at Bear Sterns, Lehman, Merrill etc in 2008. It's shitty but Merrill for instance told 95% of their analyst class to take a hike. For investment bankers, I know it's a hard reality to accept but the reality is that M&A has been living on borrowed time, and now rent is due. S&T isn't the only division in decline -- it's just that HFs were the first to cannibalize their business (and S&T by extension) in the run-up to 2008, bankers just had the next decade to do it to themselves.
Don't have any new information, just want to give some thoughts. It's important to note this is not just like 2008, a crisis that was caused directly by banks. Covid's full effect on profits is still yet to be seen, but it certainly won't be as drastic and wont cause the same exodus.
Schools, events, etc all shutting down right now is a good thing. The U.S. is finally starting to take the threat seriously and this bodes well for containment. Also, many are saying that the warmer weather should help stop the spread.
If anything, I'd be worried about commercial & corporate banking. Rates are going to 0% and companies are going to default on loans.
I dont think you incoming summers realize that IB provides some of the least job security out of any industry
My EB recently emailed summer analysts confirming they will not be canceling the internship (at worst WFH). Not exactly sure what it'll mean for return offers, but it was very reassuring.
Which EB is this? Just curious.
Any insights from the BBs and how they will react?
I half thought you were a troll given your username but this is a sensible response.
1) Wouldn’t constraints on testing capacity imply that the true growth rate of cases is actually FASTER than the officially reported figure? In other words, my methodology (growing the implied cases 10-20 days ago by the change in reported cases over the last 10-20 days) is conservative. 2) What evidence do you have that the growth rate is slowing in Western countries and not accelerating? South Korea, China and Singapore have dramatically different cultural expectations than we do re personal freedoms. The observed data in every Western country supports a doubling time of 1.5-2.0 days. This essentially means everyone will get it before the end of the flu season. Your view on r naught is too theoretical - look at the observed data! Also projecting based on r naught sounds complicated - just use normal growth rates lol. 3) one way to get around this problem of testing capacity skewing your understanding of true growth rates is to compare the growth rate in reported cases to deaths 20 days later. When you do this exercise, I think you get a strong correlation. 4) How do you know that China death rate was not materially higher than what was reported? 5) using South Korea is a good idea to get the CFR but I still don’t think that accounts for the difference between our estimates. They had a CFR of about 1%, which is also what I am roughly assuming.
Keep in mind that death rate is just one side. Another point that COVID-19 is freaking is it spreads SO FAST.
Apart from the death rate, collapse of medical system is severe as well. Doctors are heavily needed and they are not that many.
I have been worried about the spread of the virus in the US since the end of February. I saw many people not taking it seriously, and like some commenters above, making light of people wearing face masks early on. But look at the US today. The healthcare system is under high pressure, hundreds of deaths are being reported daily, and the infection rate is crazy. It's sad to see people being overconfident, and worse, criticizing those who were logical and took precautions before more reported numbers started rolling in.
I predict that the virus will peak in the US in April or May. As an incoming SA at a BB I am worried but hopeful. The internship may be delayed. Cancellation is the last resort. It's important to stay level-headed in these times and pay attention to the news everyday. Good luck to everyone.
It seems like a majority of predictions now call for a peak in mid-April and an "end" in June. With those projections, the cancellation of SA would be a bit extreme. I think a delay is probable.
Can we get someone's opinion on this updated? I'm unsure if I should be even signing for an apartment at this point.
I cannot speak to everyone's situation, but my HR contact has advised incoming summer analysts to hold off on housing for the time being, until they provide us with an update around mid April.
Are you at a BB/MM/EB? Just to get a little color?
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A lot of people have already gotten their housing as NYU housing is the most popular choice and their process ended a while ago. I would go ahead and get something through a university as it's getting late for housing and if the situation goes out of hand they will have to refund you because university summer housing is only available to students who have an internship in the city.
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