I started this past Monday as a lateral Analyst at an EB in a fairly solid coverage group (not the top, not the bottom).
I lateraled with ~14 months experience as an Analyst at a top BB (not GS). Did I absolutely bone myself with this recession coming in the next few months? What are layoffs like in IB coverage groups during poor economic periods?
My initial assumption was that expensive/underperforming MD's would be the first to go, followed by shit-tier A&As. But as someone with 2 days experience and no track record with the firm am I completely screwed? There's been no explicit talk in my firm about layoffs but at my former bank I heard rumors that the ECM desk was preparing to get rattled.
If it comes to your rank for layoff, then expect FIFO. You'll be chopped first.
That would be LIFO…
Oh yeah you're right, I was incorrect. LIFO. Im not an accountant.
You will be fine. I am sure they are expecting a slow down in deal. However, if they are expecting to reduce headcount in the coming months do you really think they would have hired you just to fire you at the end of the year?
That isn't unheard of (I know this is a shock to those who have only seen a 10+ year long bull market).
Hard to say. If we see a repeat of 2008/2009, then you have the right to be worried. That said, there are other factors working in your favor. Investment banks just endured a really painful last couple of years where they struggled to recruit the staff necessary to handle the workload. This recent pain point will make them hesitant to cut headcount right away. I suspect they may seek to simply reduce bonuses in an effort to keep staff. Sure, people can jump ship, but if the whole economy is hurting there are fewer alternatives for people to turn to.
So my belief is that IB layoffs are not a foregone conclusion but will really depend on how deep a recession goes and the expected duration (a quick, V-shaped recovery will limit layoffs).
As for who gets cut first? Yes, usually the brand new guy is the first to go unless there are obvious underperformers on the team.
Friends on the ER desk say 2 year recession. So looks like im fucked. Appreciate the honest insight regardless.
They know fuck all
Remind me of the last time sellside research got anything right?
Why would they hire you? Understand the concerns but think you're fineEdit:Numbers y/y look bad compared to 2021 but that was an anomaly. Compare to 2019/2020, which were by all means good years, and this year won’t look as bad.
^2008-2009 was a train wreck with banks worrying about going belly-up. This isn’t that time and it seems some of the regulation that came out of it worked. The balance sheets are worlds better than that time. More likely is just lower bonuses before layoffs.
Have been at energy companies with layoffs + friends in HR - banks are slightly different but generally most employers use ranking system + FIFO.
Bottom ratings (people with 4 and 5's where 1 is highest) are first to go. Bottom rank cleans out most of required layoffs - given how bad banks need ASO and VPs rn i can't imagine there will be too much use of LIFO (unless dogshit group at dogshit bank sorta deal)
LIFO, not FIFO
I think that in case of a recession, a BB is always a safer place to be compared to a boutique in which M&A fees is the only revenue stream, although when work slows down too much, lay offs happen everywhere.
Having said that, I highly doubt they will get rid of you if they just hired you. You will certainly have at least 14-18 months, make sure you're a top bucket analyst during this time and you should be fine.
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