No brainer that current deal volume is very low for all banks.
Does it impact EBs or MMs any harder?
Worried about having a 2023 FT offer withdrawn in London, despite signing contracts and forms etc..
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They’re not going to rescind your FT offer. That’s just a publicity disasters. It’s very well known that when the fat needs trimming - senior positions are first in line due to the cost of employing these individuals being higher. Analysts are typically only ever fired for poor behaviour etc and withdrawing a FT offer due to ‘economic conditions’ at any reputable shop is very unlikely.
If it is an EB with restructuring practice they will be fine. For example Moelis and other banks said they will even hire more people forward because of talent war + uptick in restructuring
depends if restructuring / m&a generalist (which i think MOE is?)
in the same boat (signed 2023 EB FT in London) - i think EBs can be more insulated from economic downturns compared to BBs because of minimal capital advisory exposure (such as ECM DCM LevFin), and some boutiques have restructuring advisory which will support overall deal volume in a down market. You will unlikely see banks blow up like they did in 2008/2009 because of the Dodd-Frank reforms
Seems counterintuitive
Sure product bankers are getting hit but i’d argue cov bankers at bbs are in a better spot
now that financing/capital is the bottleneck seems likely that sponsors and corporates are going to be more keen to develop good relations w balance sheet banks who can actually underwrite their deals
BBs don’t have a significant % of their revenue stream that’s negatively correlated with the economy - some of the EBs have 30% of revenue coming from restructuring advisory
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