Got my signing bonus today - worthwhile to invest in the short run?

How are you guys keeping your signing bonuses until you have to move this summer (3 months from now)? Seems like a waste to just have it sitting in my checking account.

 
trazer985:
checking as opposed to just not looking for a way of posting on the forums that shows you got your offer without looking like a smug jackass?

Bingo.

"It's outrageous, egregious, preposterous. "
 
trazer985:
checking as opposed to just not looking for a way of posting on the forums that shows you got your offer without looking like a smug jackass?
We have a winner.

OP - buy RIM at 4x leverage, all in.

 
Boothorbust:
trazer985:
checking as opposed to just not looking for a way of posting on the forums that shows you got your offer without looking like a smug jackass?
We have a winner.

OP - buy RIM at 4x leverage, all in.

Since I believe in the semi-strong form of EMH, I don't think that's necessarily a worse idea than buying any similar beta stock 4x levered, but I'd rather just put my money into a diversified ETF. Brokerage fees worth it for 3 months though?

 
goldman in da house:
Boothorbust:
trazer985:
checking as opposed to just not looking for a way of posting on the forums that shows you got your offer without looking like a smug jackass?
We have a winner.

OP - buy RIM at 4x leverage, all in.

Since I believe in the semi-strong form of EMH, I don't think that's necessarily a worse idea than buying any similar beta stock 4x levered, but I'd rather just put my money into a diversified ETF. Brokerage fees worth it for 3 months though?

lulz Short term ETF investing FTW
 
ProspectiveMonkey:
goldman in da house:
Boothorbust:
trazer985:
checking as opposed to just not looking for a way of posting on the forums that shows you got your offer without looking like a smug jackass?
We have a winner.

OP - buy RIM at 4x leverage, all in.

Since I believe in the semi-strong form of EMH, I don't think that's necessarily a worse idea than buying any similar beta stock 4x levered, but I'd rather just put my money into a diversified ETF. Brokerage fees worth it for 3 months though?

lulz Short term ETF investing FTW

Investing in SPY for 3 months is a bad idea while investing in SPY over 30 years is a good idea? Explain your reasoning.

 
Best Response
goldman in da house:
ProspectiveMonkey:
goldman in da house:
Boothorbust:
trazer985:
checking as opposed to just not looking for a way of posting on the forums that shows you got your offer without looking like a smug jackass?
We have a winner.

OP - buy RIM at 4x leverage, all in.

Since I believe in the semi-strong form of EMH, I don't think that's necessarily a worse idea than buying any similar beta stock 4x levered, but I'd rather just put my money into a diversified ETF. Brokerage fees worth it for 3 months though?

lulz Short term ETF investing FTW

Investing in SPY for 3 months is a bad idea while investing in SPY over 30 years is a good idea? Explain your reasoning.

Because of volatility and mean reversion of returns. I sure hope GS isn't hiring you to be an equities trader.
 
trazer985:
checking as opposed to just not looking for a way of posting on the forums that shows you got your offer without looking like a smug jackass?

All of you guys be tripping, I've been open about having an offer since I made my account like half a year ago.

Geez everyone hating me because I'm with GS, what is this, Occupy Wallstreetoasis?

 
gamenumbers:
If you are now truly an employee at GS you should change your user name and I'm not kidding.

I'm not an employee until I start training this summer, so I'll keep this account until then. Thanks for your genuine advice though.

 
goldman in da house:
gamenumbers:
If you are now truly an employee at GS you should change your user name and I'm not kidding.

I'm not an employee until I start training this summer, so I'll keep this account until then. Thanks for your genuine advice though.

Shows an incredible lack of judgement to use your employer's name on a public message board like this, especially if that employer happens to be a top Investment Bank that is going through an ongoing PR crisis.

There is only downside. I'd change the name now. If anyone found out at work you had a user name "Goldman in da house" you'd a) be a laughingstock and b) probably subject to some kind of discipline or warning.

I've actually noticed your user name in the past but assumed you were some college kid who did NOT work for GS.

 

I keep my bonus in a shoe box under my bed.

Disclaimer for the Kids: Any forward-looking statements are solely for informational purposes and cannot be taken as investment advice. Consult your moms before deciding where to invest.
 

The legit answer is no. After brokerage fees and taxes you'll have to pay on any capital gains, 3 months is not long enough to earn any real returns (without a lot of risk) worth devoting any time or thought to this. If you already have a money market account I'd put it there, but rates are so low the difference between that and your checking account for three months is going to be immaterial.

 
Boothorbust:
The legit answer is no. After brokerage fees and taxes you'll have to pay on any capital gains, 3 months is not long enough to earn any real returns (without a lot of risk) worth devoting any time or thought to this. If you already have a money market account I'd put it there, but rates are so low the difference between that and your checking account for three months is going to be immaterial.

I'm not looking to make any large amount of money with my $6k, just don't want to miss out on possibly $40-60 in interest.

 
goldman in da house:
Boothorbust:
The legit answer is no. After brokerage fees and taxes you'll have to pay on any capital gains, 3 months is not long enough to earn any real returns (without a lot of risk) worth devoting any time or thought to this. If you already have a money market account I'd put it there, but rates are so low the difference between that and your checking account for three months is going to be immaterial.

I'm not looking to make any large amount of money with my $6k, just don't want to miss out on possibly $40-60 in interest.

I always thought goldman only hiring jews was just a rumor

 
Boothorbust:
The legit answer is no. After brokerage fees and taxes you'll have to pay on any capital gains, 3 months is not long enough to earn any real returns (without a lot of risk) worth devoting any time or thought to this. If you already have a money market account I'd put it there, but rates are so low the difference between that and your checking account for three months is going to be immaterial.

Hey thanks, I appreciate your honest response.

 

My comments about RIM were just tongue in cheek because everyone else is so negative on them. I honestly have no idea if they are priced cheaply right now, my guess is they are still pretty expensive and the stock is hoping for an acquisition.

My point about volatility and mean reversion of returns is simply this: there is a mean return of the S&P 500 that follows some distribution and over time the annualized returns will revert to that mean. In the short term though, over a three month period for example, returns could fall across any number of points on that distribution. You are taking a solid risk that the S&P or whatever tracking ETF you pick up will decline in value over three months. Over 30 years, there is far less risk of that.

 
Boothorbust:
My comments about RIM were just tongue in cheek because everyone else is so negative on them. I honestly have no idea if they are priced cheaply right now, my guess is they are still pretty expensive and the stock is hoping for an acquisition.

My point about volatility and mean reversion of returns is simply this: there is a mean return of the S&P 500 that follows some distribution and over time the annualized returns will revert to that mean. In the short term though, over a three month period for example, returns could fall across any number of points on that distribution. You are taking a solid risk that the S&P or whatever tracking ETF you pick up will decline in value over three months. Over 30 years, there is far less risk of that.

To further expand on this, think of it as a game where you have a positive EV but that follows a given distribution. Say you have E(R) = 10 but the distribution ranges from -10 to +20. Would you rather play this game very few times over the short term or many times over the long term. Obviously you'd prefer to play multiple times as the realized return will converge to the mean, whereas if you play a limited number of times, you run the risk you get unlucky a few times (the equivalent of the risk that the S&P goes down materially over a 3 month horizon). That's why the dude above implied the long term investment is better.
 
Boothorbust:
Boothorbust:
My comments about RIM were just tongue in cheek because everyone else is so negative on them. I honestly have no idea if they are priced cheaply right now, my guess is they are still pretty expensive and the stock is hoping for an acquisition.

My point about volatility and mean reversion of returns is simply this: there is a mean return of the S&P 500 that follows some distribution and over time the annualized returns will revert to that mean. In the short term though, over a three month period for example, returns could fall across any number of points on that distribution. You are taking a solid risk that the S&P or whatever tracking ETF you pick up will decline in value over three months. Over 30 years, there is far less risk of that.

To further expand on this, think of it as a game where you have a positive EV but that follows a given distribution. Say you have E(R) = 10 but the distribution ranges from -10 to +20. Would you rather play this game very few times over the short term or many times over the long term. Obviously you'd prefer to play multiple times as the realized return will converge to the mean, whereas if you play a limited number of times, you run the risk you get unlucky a few times (the equivalent of the risk that the S&P goes down materially over a 3 month horizon). That's why the dude above implied the long term investment is better.
all he needs to do is look at a 30 year chart of the s&p, pretty self-explanatory.
 
Boothorbust:
Boothorbust:
My comments about RIM were just tongue in cheek because everyone else is so negative on them. I honestly have no idea if they are priced cheaply right now, my guess is they are still pretty expensive and the stock is hoping for an acquisition.

My point about volatility and mean reversion of returns is simply this: there is a mean return of the S&P 500 that follows some distribution and over time the annualized returns will revert to that mean. In the short term though, over a three month period for example, returns could fall across any number of points on that distribution. You are taking a solid risk that the S&P or whatever tracking ETF you pick up will decline in value over three months. Over 30 years, there is far less risk of that.

To further expand on this, think of it as a game where you have a positive EV but that follows a given distribution. Say you have E(R) = 10 but the distribution ranges from -10 to +20. Would you rather play this game very few times over the short term or many times over the long term. Obviously you'd prefer to play multiple times as the realized return will converge to the mean, whereas if you play a limited number of times, you run the risk you get unlucky a few times (the equivalent of the risk that the S&P goes down materially over a 3 month horizon). That's why the dude above implied the long term investment is better.

Shouldn't make a difference long term vs short term if you model the S&P like the game you are describing (expected returns as percentages), which has a unit root (AKA random walk with drift), which does not necessarily converge to the mean. Here's a slide show that talks about unit roots:

http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~bhansen/390/390Lecture21.pdf

Now if you were talking about a game in which you were paid E(payment) = +10 with range from -10 to +20, then you would be right about a convergence to the mean. Playing the game once has more risk involved than playing many times.

 
DaveWinkler:
why don't you just max out a retirement account for the year and blow the other 1000 on a suit or something.

This. If you don't need your whole signing bonus to move/live this summer and really want to put your money to work, you could sock part of it away through a Roth IRA for the long term. Even if you do end up needing it in a few years you can withdraw contributions (not returns) penalty free as well as take out money for a first home purchase. Think there may also be a few other exemptions.

 

Booth: I feel like there's a good reason RIM's so cheap now, and that it still has a ways to go. Why would someone want to buy RIM? What would one do with an acquisition?

Employ the BBM network? No real need for that between e-mail on phones and shit like WhatsApp, both of which work whether you're on iOS or Android.

Use the BlackBerry OS? iOS and Android together account for, what, 80% of the US smartphone market?

Sell BlackBerries? Ahahaha... nah.

RIM's goin' down like an aging hooker - cheaper and cheaper by the day.

 
Angus Macgyver:
Booth: I feel like there's a good reason RIM's so cheap now, and that it still has a ways to go. Why would someone want to buy RIM? What would one do with an acquisition?

Employ the BBM network? No real need for that between e-mail on phones and shit like WhatsApp, both of which work whether you're on iOS or Android.

Use the BlackBerry OS? iOS and Android together account for, what, 80% of the US smartphone market?

Sell BlackBerries? Ahahaha... nah.

RIM's goin' down like an aging hooker - cheaper and cheaper by the day.

I agree, but RIM is now trading below book. It is still probably too expensive given any premium that would need to be paid in acquisition. What a buyer would get? Not much. A pretty good data security reputation with corporates and the BBM service. That's about it. I don't know what that's worth but probably not much, something though.
 
JeffSkilling:
Had no idea you couldn't contribute to a roth if you made over $125,000...that's some bullshit.

Gotta get in early to get that compounding interest working for you... I started one as a freshman in college.

MM IB -> Corporate Development -> Strategic Finance
 

First, you can't invest over a three-month period- you can only speculate. If you speculate, you must be fully prepared to lose every dime. If you are not, then don't. As for speculation ideas, that would be telling...Depending on what part of the firm you have been hired to work for (based on the question, I'm guessing it is not trading), you might want to start considering what you could do in that space. But, frankly, you are simply anxious- leave the money alone and enjoy the next few months.

Bene qui latuit, bene vixit- Ovid
 

Assuming you're serious about your desire to invest -- I'd say you put your money in F or AAPL, both of which are conviction stocks in my portfolio.

Ford has moved side ways for a while now after their earnings miss, but people are missing the bigger picture. They need to realize Ford has one of the highest operating margins among its peers, a great management team that is not going away in the short term (contrary to popular headline-swayed opinions), a mid-decade goal that is well on track, a low-quality earnings miss in 4Q11 due to commodity prices (non-core miss).

AAPL has steam to run some more. If you have looked at the stock for a while, you'd find it very attractive on a risk-adjusted basis. On a risk-off day, people hold onto AAPL, as people dump social media, bank stocks, and cyclicals for blue chips. On a risk-on day, AAPL gains a solid 1-2%, citing rising consumerism being directly beneficial to ipad sales, smart-phone penetration rate, and more. The recent Foxconn scandal is a positive catalyst in disguise. Retail investors sell off thinking Foxconn issue would reduce margins of Apple. Think again, Foxconn is also the major supplier for Apple's competitors, who will suffer a lot more vis-a-vis Apple due to less bargaining power.

Or, if long choices are slow for you, look for a safe entry point in Yelp intra-day, and make 40-60 bucks in 20 minutes with your 6k.

 

Didn't realize getting a signing bonus was so abnormal in WSO to the point where talking about it was bragging. My bad peoples.

Guess I'll just keep the dough in my checking account. I was thinking about opening a brokerage account with etrade since this is the first time I have this much excess cash to play with.

 
goldman in da house:
Didn't realize getting a signing bonus was so abnormal in WSO to the point where talking about it was bragging. My bad peoples.

Guess I'll just keep the dough in my checking account. I was thinking about opening a brokerage account with etrade since this is the first time I have this much excess cash to play with.

If you are a starting analyst it is not a signing bonus but a relocation bonus. It is 10k, 6k post tax, and if you open any brokerage account now you will have to close as soon as you start.

You are a douche-nozzle either way.

 

As much as I love trolling, this was an honest question about where others are keeping their signing bonuses. Not many people on WSO are in my position I guess (which is understandable, WSO is for college kids trying to break in and occasionally industry professionals who are bored at work). Not sure what's with this crazy splurge of haters though. Go ahead and keep at it though, tell yourself I made this to brag on the internet about having an offer (as opposed to being unemployed?) and let's see how many posts we can get this thread to!

 

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