Hedging for a recession
Deleted
Deleted
| +189 | Just One More Year | 14 | 4h |
| +173 | Piper Sandler in talks to acquire PWP | 74 | 4d |
| +123 | UBS Appears to be Exploring Sale | 19 | 2d |
| +86 | Paradise Is Paradise | 7 | 2h |
| +77 | Drunk VP. How to manage? | 27 | 14h |
| +38 | How do I take my foot off the gas? (AN1) | 4 | 16h |
| +38 | Lazard US Views 2026/2027 | 13 | 12h |
| +32 | M&A is Paradise | 1 | 5d |
| +25 | Why did EVR succeed vs GHL or PWP that ended up getting acquired? | 7 | 2d |
| +23 | HR is starting to worry me, do I throw a hail mary during an upcoming chat with an MD? | 2 | 3h |
Career Resources
Worry about what you can control
yo been thinking the same every now& then. but like said, cant control the future just hope it's not clipped af
Hell is coming 2H 2022.
If you’re not trolling, can you please explain?
Not trolling, but I am speculating. The last 18 months have been borderline mania across asset classes, ranging from private M&A transactions, residential real estate, to the equity markets, crypto, NFTs, high-end collectibles (sports and trading cards, art, watches, etc.) - all seeing increase measured in multiples rather than merely percentage points. Much of the elevation of assets has been driven by loose monetary policy / expansion of the Fed balance sheet, coupled with immense leverage... all the while inflation is rising to effectively tax the poor and while global economies face relentless supply chain issues.
At some point, the inflows into these bubbly asset categories will begin to slow / reverse, likely coinciding with the continued Fed tapering which will hit leverage levels and asset prices / valuation multiples... when this happens there will likely be a cascade of devaluations and selling of asset hedges to offset losses / cover risk exposure along with a deleveraging which will flow into the economy and cause things to slow a bit. Many long-term macro players have written extensively about this (suggest checking out Dalio's new book on Principles for the Changing World Order).
I'm not sure what the catalyst will be, but there are too many potential "gotchas" out there to trigger the next not so statistically insignificant "black swan" event - ranging from Fed rate hikes, to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China's invasion of Taiwan, cyber / economic warfare between the US and China, China pegging the Yuan to gold while simultaneously dumping treasuries, commercial real estate bubble popping in China, social unrest in the US / Europe, etc.
I focus a lot on managing low probability tail risk, because even if that risk is theoretically unlikely, it is the type of risk that is most likely to significant impact your life.
Sup Bill, didn't know you jumped to the sell-side
Lol'd at this - I remember watching that live. What a great time to be alive. +SB
Do you guys mind explaining this reference? Thanks!
RX does well in recessions. I really like it tho so it may be a bit boring if you don’t
RX is going to be a VIBE in 2023-2025.
Deleted
Best time to get some Restructuring skills hehe
I graduated in the financial crisis, jobs were there just lower starting pay and very hard to come by. control what you can: network, living expenses, other skills, physical and mental fitness (stress is a bigger killer than most realize), and so on.
if you're interested in quant stuff, sure go ahead and add a minor/double major, but you're already far behind the 8 ball compared to engineering majors. I have a really hard time believing you won't find work if you're nimble, you just may have to consider other industries, not living in NYC, or God forbid, taking a job with BaML instead of Centerview or some shit
lol whats wrong w BAML
Jokes brah
I hate I can't buy VIX in Europe tbh
Iste in facere voluptatem est ipsa. Debitis autem modi dolorem ut. Nihil illo repellat dolore similique repellendus. Voluptatem animi harum aut illo voluptatem cupiditate eum deserunt. Officia maxime voluptatem voluptatem repellat quia. Et reiciendis nesciunt occaecati esse nulla. Et omnis soluta labore voluptates ipsam vel est.
Necessitatibus iure aut consectetur fuga et. Eos numquam quis sapiente praesentium. Dignissimos eveniet dolor vero ea exercitationem qui autem. Architecto aut doloribus assumenda minima quod ab.
Expedita eaque rem repellendus numquam reprehenderit. Qui soluta non quia velit soluta velit. Quae unde deserunt eos magnam est.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...