How do you determine if a M&A deal adds value/is worth it?
I'm doing a project for my finance class that involves modeling and writing about a potential acquisition for Amazon to pursue. I understand all the valuations to get an enterprise value and price that Amazon should pay for the target but I'm confused about how exactly you then justify/base your decision on whether this deal is value-adding for Amazon. Any help is appreciated
Yeah time to learn about accretion/dilution analysis
are you talking about accretion/dilution? look at previous EPS and then new EPS after deal
Actually, unless the target company's enterprise value is well into the $billions, accretion / dilution for an acquiror the size of amazon isn't going to do you a lot of good, but you'll look smart for running the numbers anyway (short form) and stating that acc/dil that's measured in single digit basis points doesn't tell you much. Other reason it doesn't tell you much: You don't have projections even for amazon beyond 2-3 years at most, and the acquisition could be part of a much longer-term strategy.
One option: Run a DCF of a) the target on a standalone basis, and b) the estimated synergies. Then add those two numbers together and subtract the total from what Amazon paid. If the difference is meaningfully negative, it's value creative. This will be a little bit GIGO, but it's not possible for you to have detailed and/or long-term projections for the business or synergies.
I like the DCF idea but the project is like making up your own deal for Amazon to deal so there is no historic price for what Amazon paid, you decide based off your analysis. I understand getting the valued price for the target based off a DCF or Comps but just confused on when the professor asks like how we justify or even prove in a quantitative sense that Amazon would benefit from this deal. Sorry if this is kinda basic don't have much experience modeling so far.
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