Investment Banks in 10 years - Ranking
Hi guys!
How do you think the landscape will change in the next couple of years? Will the Bulge Bracket be reduced to the US banks?
Will the Europeans merge?
How will the EBs be positioned? Which might fall from glory (as Greenhill did) as a result of the departure of founding partners? (thinking of Ken Moelis or Roger Altman)
Will the Balance Sheet Banks (JPM/BAML/Citi) continue to grow their IBD businesses?
JPM seems likely to dethrone at least MS. Maybe one of the other two as well once financing will become more scarce?
Which banks will be the winners/losers of the next financial crisis?
Probably because everyone one here is 15 or younger, but not every recession is a crisis. 2008 was an anomaly not the norm.
I still think the US investment banks will further cement their dominance and further gain market share. Putting league tables aside, I think the general trend will remain with MS leading equities, JPM/Citi leading fixed income and GS leading M&A
The bigger surprise will really come from the European investment banks where there is a lot more turnmoil, and I personally think Barclays will be the biggest standout, mainly because they have the strongest US franchise out of all the European IBs - the investment banking division of Barclays is really more a US-based franchise (the Lehman franchise) than a European one. I'm a big fan of Jes Staley's strategy of concentrating in the US / UK and so far they have been executing tremendously well - if this progress continues, I would not be surprised if Barclays eventually dethrones DB as the "investment banking champion of Europe" going forward
Just my 2 cents, l could be totally wrong