Morale feels like it as all “doom and gloom”. Can’t speak for others but, been hearing my friends start speaking about how busy the year has been for the last month to two months. Not busy with “pitches” that your MD wants to send “proactively”, but with more real stuff that’s coming from the client / sponsor side.
Curious to hear others opinions… maybe some optimism for the year.
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Ah, the jungle drums are beating with tales of increased deal activity, are they? It's quite the topic of interest. Based on the most helpful WSO content, it seems like the landscape has been a bit of a rollercoaster recently. Last year, there was a significant downturn in deal activity, with M&A activity down 30% to 40% YoY, particularly slow in Europe but also seeing a nearly 25% decrease in the US. This was attributed to a variety of factors, including economic uncertainties leading many to speculate about a looming recession.
However, the world of finance is as dynamic as a troop of monkeys swinging through the trees – always on the move. While last year might have felt like "doom and gloom" with deal activity taking a hit, it's not uncommon for the market to bounce back. Anecdotes from the field, like the ones you're hearing from your friends, could indeed be early indicators that the tide is turning. It's worth noting that deal flow can be quite sector-specific. For instance, healthcare coverage mentioned a significant slowdown, with IPOs down by about 85% relative to Q1 of 2021. Yet, there's always room for variation across different sectors.
The increase in real deals coming from the client or sponsor side, as opposed to just pitches, is a positive sign. It suggests that there's genuine interest and confidence in the market, which could be a precursor to a broader uptick in activity. It's also a reminder of the cyclical nature of the industry – after a period of slowdown, the gears are bound to start turning more quickly again.
Optimism is the banana in the lunchbox, my friend. It's essential for keeping spirits high and eyes peeled for opportunities. While it's important to remain cautious and not get carried away by a few positive anecdotes, it's equally important to stay agile and ready to jump on opportunities as they arise. The financial jungle is ever-changing, and who knows? This year might just be the year the market swings back up. Keep those ears to the ground and stay connected with your network – it's often the best way to gauge what's really happening out there.
Sources: Deal Activity Down 30-40%, Acquisitions - How active is your pipeline?, Multifamily Deals are Starting to Fall Out
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Watch it be like:
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Yeah v busy in O&G rn
Too busy to type out very
Getting smoked at a mid level BB with no end in sight. In 2022 / 2023 you’d have busy times that eventually faded but right now it’s almost a consistent burn across the bullpen. Culture has been historically good here but you can see the cracks forming as one of our main MDs sees the blood in the water
Low BB in London. Haven't been able to leave the office before 2am for the past 2 weeks. 80% execution, barely any pitching
actually the market has been quite slow for me. sector team here. few deals pushed down the line and M&A is slow
Bump, interested
From people I talk to, it seems like LMM and MM deal flow is picking up. A lot of which is driven by deals that were sidelined in 2023. Wether or not these new engagements will close with rates still high, who knows.
This year is a write off, revenue-wise. It's all about filling pipeline for next year.
“JUNIORS!!!!! WE HAVE SOME IDEAS TO PITCH!!!! GOTTA FILL THAT PIPELINE!!!!!”
Extremely active deal flow in MM and LMM atm
Industrials focused, definitely seeing a material uptick in deal activity. As OP indicated, this is somewhat driven by PE exits as they ultimately cant hold on forever and valuations for strong assets still command a good premium, but also being driven by less attractive assets coming to market as F500 players divest underperforming businesses / non-core platforms to address debt paydown
Note: I have also anecdotally observed strong medtech / healthcare LMM / MM opportunities arising.
Bump
Bump
In a tech coverage group at a MM bank. Pitching like crazy. Deals not closing. Anyone else dealing with this?
I thought tech was hot now?
Hello??
Hello?
Same exact shoes. Utter bullshit. Bullpen getting burnt out on insane pitches just to lose them and not even get the mandate.
Why is there an uptick in industrial deals??
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-banks-needed-ma-to-roar-back-in-2024…
Interesting article on the topic
Tech is still trash right now but industrials, consumer, and O&G are picking up
It’s getting busy. Deals from 22/23 that are coming off the shelf for a relaunch (pressure to bump up deal fees after a historically weak 22/23 as well) and sponsors needing to exit platforms are causing things to heat up. Still TBD whether or not the bid/ask spread is too wide to get deals done but I’m hoping at least one of the deals I’m on will close.
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