Initial range for the IPO was lifted by about 30%, and is now going out right at the top end of that range, $45. ~7.8MM shares going out initially.
Wow.
Counting all shares held in the company, that implies a $4.25Bn val...
$50MM revenues, only $8MM net... EV/EBITDA: 77x.
Wow.
I'm calling for a RENN repeat once all the retail sheep get sucked in.
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I simply do not understand how social networks can be earning these valuations.
Nice "diversity" on the cover of their S-1 reg: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1271024/000119312511142213/ds1a…
Yeah, I think it's a RENN repeat. Hopefully it doesn't though, so I can short it. :D
Best. Short. EVER.
Fair point. LNKD is not DMD. But the valuation is just ridiculous. I agree the stock could be another NFLX - for a while. The difference is people actually use NFLX. LNKD earned a measly $15 mil last year, and a significant portion of their revenues comes from advertising - a dying business model in the Internet space.
I agree it is a great short.
LNKD has an actual business? What's stopping facebook from starting a "professional page" of some sort?
wait for people to inflate it first then short the fuck out of it
100% growth, profitable... who said $50 million revenue? Try run-rate $400 million.
....assuming 100% growth q over q over q? Don't see it.. their premium subs decreased 9% y/y.
Not saying this thing won't pop at first as it is a hot tool for most people especially in finance, but i do think its totally unsustainable and shouldn't last through the year.
Didn't see what the specific lock-up is for this thing, but after that point i can imagine quite a few initial investors might want to cash out..
listen this company is SaaS but with a social networking aspect to it.
Perhaps im too bullish but I think this thing is going to be big. Every big ipo isn't without its fair share of skeptics. The vc's and founders ae keeping a significant stake
I'm too young to start talking about the late 90's tech bubble but do you guys see any similarities with the recent hot internet start-ups coming up for IPO's? Some see the Skype deal as a sign of that, plus the crazy valuations of LNKD, FB, Groupon, etc.
As a consumer, I think what LinkedIn does is great though!
just running the most basic of dcfs on their net income for this year means to justify the 4.25bn valuation they need 70% net income growth for the next 10 years and then a terminal growth of 5%, thats insane.
LNKD doubles on open. (only 980 times earnings)
ZOINKS!
Pets.com anyone?
Holy shit.
Beginning of a new tech bubble? Fuck, this shit is unreal.
wtf.
It is times like this that I am quite glad I am no longer subject to restrictions on trading that are at the big banks. This should be a guaranteed win on the short side.
The only thing that makes me a little bit hesitant, is the Google IPO. I participated in a paper trading competition with some coworkers shortly after GOOG IPO'ed. It had some ridiculous valuation as well and my strategy was to short the crap out of it, and even get some leverage on that play w/ options.
End of that story: The market can be wrong longer than you can stay solvent and I believe I came in last. Obviously things are a little different here, GOOG had a huge solid business. Linked in is much smaller, and I just don't see where the growth will go. Even if they eat all of Monster's lunch, that doesn't justify 4B.
Not just $4B, but you now have to justify it at $8B!!
Man the IRS will be happy come April 2012 with all these earnings.
How the fuck did this happen? Seriously this is insane wtf is going on
SHORTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT, I'm bout to call Schwab ASAP
You can't short for ~3 days as there's no shares to borrow.
As for LNKD, the question now is, who should be pissed? The mgmt team because the underwriters priced the thing around 50% lower than it should have went out at? Or do we look at this as simply a bubble in the making from the very first bid that filled the order book before opening in the am..
Yea I figured that out. But I'll be watching the stock very closely
you guys are all f$#*ing scrubs. why did it jump? obviously they were priced at the wrong multiples chumps.
Morgan priced them at a slight premium to SaaS multiples when they should be trading with the internet brand leaders e.g. OpenTable since they are consumer oriented.
Look the whole industry you can short, but shorting LinkedIn doesn't make any sense. It's all about relative pricing. For all you new monkeys out there that work at Piper Jaffray, Short at your own risk.
It's definitely possible that whoever was running the deal team started with an overhyped value and then forced the analysts to keep tweaking their models until they read $9 billion. And anyway, wouldn't a huge opening day, even if it's manufactured, create more demand/hype over the stock?
I'm gonna ask for max amount of shares available to retail investors on FB IPO... x2 on first trading day (100% sure) even if they sell it at $1tn val and 100000000x FV/sales.
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