More layoffs / struggles coming for IB?
Curious to hear what everyone’s thoughts are on M&A / financing markets. Obviously no perfect answers but curious what is everyone thinking
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Yes - more layoffs coming this summer. Many banks are still overstaffed and the predicted M&A rebound never materialized.
Should incoming analysts be worried
Yes - if your offer is not rescinded and are able to start, you are at risk of being laid off via PIP or RIF
My MM firm fired several analysts yesterday without warning, shitty to say the least. Trump is so erratic that who tf knows what will happen tmrw, let alone the next several months. Pour one out for our boys that got canned yesterday, not the best time to be looking for a job...
Aw man that is not comforting. Any news on WSO about which firm this was?
Which MM
A lot of people are delusional if they don’t think this will impact fee streams, which will have a downward impact on employment needs
Klarna is pulling its IPO and that’s just the start. Who the fuck wants to go public with this kind of instability?
StubHub too.
I believe Hinge Health also pulled.
It's quiet AF in here from all TRUMP 2024 broccoli-headed zoomers who couldn't STFU a year ago
We're too busy working on live deals to post on here
Anyways. I'd happily take a short term recession if it also means we get illegal immigration controlled and stop sending foreign aid. But here's what's going to happen. A recession was going to happen anyway. We already had negative GDP a couple years ago. So from a political perspective, this is going to be long forgotten by 2028 and instead Trump takes credit for the recovery
“Too busy to be posting here” > proceeds to post here lol
That's interesting the recession was inevitable - that was not the rhetoric going into this election at all. But I guess the rhetoric was also the stock market will boom and well, here we are. And if recession was so inevitable, why have all the major macro and wall street firms scrambled to lower their forecast in the last month? Must be all that inevitability catching up all at once. Illegal immigration thing is not related to this conversation; cracking down on illegal immigration and not tanking the markets are not mutually exclusive.
Differentiated view and one you could almost argue came to fruition in hindsight.
Would love hear more on why a recession was going to happen anyway because I’m not there yet.
Dumbest thing I've read in a while. Go work on your imaginary live deals little grasshopper. LOL
"live deals" aka pitching for your MD who is trying not to get canned in 2 months since trump nuked markets
Trying to claim prestige while working as a monkey in IB is hilarious
How does he taste?
Tariffs are a negotiating tactic. We are the single largest consumer economy in the world, and that gives us leverage. If we are going to suffer from tariffs, then other countries will suffer even more and will be pressured to bring down their trade barriers.
We don't know if this tactic will work but I think it's better than doing nothing. We will see...
what do you smoke lol
US has a deficit with almost every country because US are consumers and it's cheaper to make things in Europe/Asia/etc. at x4 lower wage than in US, so you're doing a worldwide tariff war for what? So u can extract some leverage from Falkland Islands or a fucking penguin continent at the expense of fucking your grandma's savings in Franklin Templeton's Dow ETF?
this administration is fucking nuts, and the funny thing is they have only 3 months in the office and I think I have already seen it all. Can't wait to see the next 3.75 years, probably a country will get nuked - wouldn't surprise me
Are you retarded? Go back to your shitty Aeris/Cantor type seat pls and stfu.
I'm still pro-Trump because of his stances + actions on Israel, him cracking down on illegal immigration, him cracking down on the corrupt universities, and him getting rid of nonsensical far left policies. I hate the tariffs, but am hoping they're an incredibly bold move which will cause the rest of the world to implement a true free trade world where everyone either has 0 or near zero tariffs. One can hope after all. Pragmatically speaking, it's a gamble and we'll see if it'll play out. Alexander the Great was incredibly reckless and bold at times, yet we still honor and remember him. I think this is a double down legacy play of Trump.
What I would love to see more from his administration is more containment and hawkish behavior towards Beijing. Russia is not a threat and Europe seriously should start handling that burden instead of always looking for the US to bail them out. I would love to also see an increase in trade with South America, especially considering it's just raw with so many resources and untapped potential.
.
Comparing Trump to Alexander the Great is beyond wild
So your number one priority is the welfare of a foreign country. Got it.
People acting like US consumers have been bearing the brunt of unfair trade policies when anyone who has done the slightest bit of international travel or lived abroad knows Americans enjoy some of the lowest consumer prices in the world relative to income. Why don't you go try buying an E Class benz in Vietnam or buy property in Canada and get back to me.
Not US consumers. US manufacturing workers have bore the brunt. Also innovation in this sector.
well then convince people that significantly higher prices for goods is worth repatriating manufacturing; based on inflation being such a hot topic, I doubt many would make that trade-off
following
IB is about to absolutely get REKT -- most IPOs already pulled, PE is also REKT because of the denominator effect (several LPs heavily demanding liquidity backflow to them ...) -- this won't reverse course in a matter of weeks and months so prepare for a long, painful process.
There will be tons of headcount shed in global IBD.
Which banks do you think will be most affected? Ie BB vs MM, Tech vs Industrials, Banks with an RX practice vs without one etc?
Yep at my bank there are already talks of another wave of layoffs in summer/fall. Deal teams were way overstaffed post covid hiring boom, and majority of them are still overstaffed.
Hiring will probably slow down too… banks were hiring earlier in the year. Whoever locked in guarantees early this year made out well.
What bank?
I accepted a lateral offer from a EB literally a week ago - any chance they pull it?
If you didn’t go to HPY then probably
this is the first time i have ever laughed out loud from a wso post - i did not give the MS tho
What is HPY?
Depends whether you went to Harvard or Princeton. PM me for more info.
Do you think FIG groups will be strongly affected?
Why would they not be pal? They are going to get destroyed like the rest of the economy
Would SA 26 offers be affected?
104% tariffs going on China lol take a guess what this means for deal flow and how that translates to staffing needs in the next few years
Funny to think about all the crying some of you all did about DEI and wokeness affecting your employment options
Middle Markets Fucked, lower BB's Fucked, EB's with weak RX practice fucked, most people are not going to be ready for the massive layoffs and offer rescinded emails that are coming there way. Not to fearmonger excessively but bear in mind banks have over hired because of the expected M&A boom, now they are looking at a potential recession.
Will there could be more distressed M&A or other kinds of sales for middle markets after economy went shit?
When was this rehiring? It seems '23 / '24 was full of hiring freezes.
I do not think there was much over hiring late 2023 and early 2024, as the market wasn't so great even back then. 2026 summer interns may suffer though.
Yea but to be fair who knows what the market will look like in 2026. There could be a serious recession that gets 2026 offers pulled and low return rates, or there could be a rebound and they're fine. I'm incoming SA this summer and would trade my offer for a 2026 one right now.
Gen Z, enjoy what you voted for
Yes bad macro means bad times for bankers. It always is regardless what type of banking. Ib or lending.
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