Oil & Gas / Midstream Primer, Resources
Hi monkeys, recently got staffed on an O&G deal, mainly midstream, and I'm having a tough time understanding the industry because it's so dense and there is so much info to deal with. Struggling to understand things like:
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Quantity: is 100 million barrels a day a lot? How much natural gas is a lot of natural gas? How does capacity work?
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Types of Resources: are crude and brent the same thing? Why are they called hydrocarbons sometimes and other times oil?
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Classifications: Is natural gas "clean" or not clean? Why is natural gas used to power generation plants but then natural-gas powered plants not considered clean like wind/solar? What's the difference between natural gas for powering power plants versus natural gas for other uses?
I'm just really confused, especially cause the supply chain is so complex, there's a bunch of terminology but mainly because I have no understanding of what capacity is a lot of capacity or little capacity. I know 10MW is very little (depends on source, due to capacity factor/usage) compared to 2,000MW but how do I know what cubic meters is a lot versus little? Does it depend on WHERE?
Looking for primers/long resources that are thorough, I remember there being a Deutsche primer sent around that people said was very wholistic but it's super outdated, like almost a decade old. Really need something a lot more recent, at least post COVID. Open to any recs guys, thank you a lot in advance.
Following for O&G interview sake
following
I don't have any primers around that are updated but what i would recommend is that you read Hart Energy (best industry publication and well respected by both bankers and Corp Dev teams) and for midstream specifically, the research of Michael Blum. He's Wells Fargo's equity research analyst and is widely regarded as the best midstream research analyst. He publishes a weekly publication ("The Weekender") along with monthly publications ("Midstream Monthly") and various one-offs. Midstream teams in Houston typically send his research around along with the weekly group-wide comps spam. RBC Richardson Barr's website is also a useful and easy way to quickly judge company sizes and day to day performance for both Upstream and Midstream.
Happy to answer any follow-ups that you have.
Wow man, was not expecting this insanely detailed behemoth of an answer. Thank you a lot for this, super helpful. Working right now, but I will definitely be asking more later. Really appreciate it.
Is the modeling for o&g midstream significantly different to modeling for upstream? I'm more familiar with upstream, having seen and been through some models myself, but not sure if midstream is more akin to a widget company or the traditional upstream model.
When I'm talking about upstream o&g modeling, think: production profile, oil well NAV, o&g discount rate, etc.
Definitely different but it depends. I've seen models on the G&P side where you're functionally aggregating a dozen upstream ARIES style NAV models (because that flows into the production profile of the midstream assets). But you can also end up with pretty straightforward models where the revenue build is just simplistically utilization x rate. A decade ago they would have been even more different, when MLPs and financial engineering was more commonplace. You still see some companies with tax-advantaged MLP structures but not nearly as many as you did in years past (you're weighing tax advantages vs. governance issues with MLPs, and recently the scales have been tipped towards governance issues being too much of a headache to justify any tax benefit).
I would say generally that midstream is much more bond-like than anything else in energy. Cash flows are much more predictable. This is why the sector tends to trade higher than the rest of energy (upstream, OFS). In terms of modeling yes it's different (unless it's a pure G&P asset, where you're just layering midstream fees on top of an upstream production model) but it's also not 1:1 similar to any generic CorpFin modeling that you might see in OFS.
This is a top tier Midstream post for all 1st year energy bankers without midstream exposure or those looking to get into infra PE.
This is a really great answer but a point of clarification (nit-picking)
Yes 1 MMBbld is a lot but in midstream that’s going to be a gross. E&Ps report what’s called net royalty interest (NRI, explained below) so FANG’s equivalent gross prod is more like 330-340 at a ~67% NRI (actually think it’s lower but can’t remember).
For those interested, gross production is the actual production out of the ground, that’s what the midstream company is measuring because they contractually get all of it if they have a gathering agreement/dedicated acreage. The operator generally has a majority interest (called operated working interest if they are the ones drilling/operating the well) but it’s very common for other parties to also have interests, these are called non-operated because they just get an invoice and have very little decision-making power/control over operations. So let’s say there’s the operator and one other company. The operator owns 90% of the working interest while the other party holds 10%. That means the operator pays 90% of capex, 90% of opex and the non-operated owner(s) pay their commensurate share. The catch is, they won’t get 90% of the revenue. How is that? Royalty holders get their piece. Someone owns the surface and mineral (sub-surface) rights. This can get very complicated but let’s assume that it’s a ranch in South Texas that’s been around for a long time. The standard is a 25% royalty down there. So that means that the land owner that holds the mineral rights gets 25% of all the revenue that’s generated by the well. And usually pays effectively nothing (some small production taxes) and why should they since it’s their land that they’re inviting someone to develop. So the actual revenue to the working interest holders (operated and non-op) is the working interest times their share of the royalty (for op here - 90% * 75%). That’s the NRI. As a reminder, public US E&P companies report NRI production/revenue and working interest costs.
RBC has a primer called “Energy Made Simple” that they used to publish updates for every now and then. You can find it on Eikon I believe.
There is obviously a Canadian slant to it, but more general content is probably something that would be useful if you haven’t had any experience in the industry!
Hope this helps!
The answer above says more than enough so I'll just add this. Whether gas is considered clean or not is mostly up to the preference/stance of the person talking. For example on Shell's website and promotional materials you'll see them talking a lot about gas and how it's 50-90% cleaner than coal (this is a stat I saw on their materials, no idea how accurate), but for someone who is anti-oil, they will tell you that gas is the devil. So keep that in mind
DB primer is still relevant. The process, geologist, etc hasn’t changed - the country/company specific stuff has of course. If you want to learn about O&G extraction, it’s still a great resource. TPH has a great primer from their research team but you’d need access to their portal
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