Can anyone offer some perspective on sell-side mandate success rates? In other words, what percentage of sell-side mandates result in a successful acquisition? I've been working at a boutique LMM IB for two years and have seen a lot of deals fall apart and it's effecting team comp so wondering how viable and stable a career path this is. Would really appreciate some feedback.
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All part of the game and impossible to ascribe a percentage to it - you can gather all the data points in the world, but won't be meaningful as deals generally die due to company / market specific factors over anything else (neither of which you can pull strong precedents for). However, what I will say is that LMM private market deals (particularly ones involving owner-operators that are looking to exit / retire) are less likely to die than deals involving larger, public companies.
Few reasons:
1) Willing seller (assuming transaction value clears selling price, and no bells & whistles tied to the deal structure)
2) Less principals / shareholders to worry about and deal getting voted down (need green light from majority)
3) Broader universe of potential buyers due to target size
4) Don't have to worry about public market dynamics that can sewer a deal (relative values trade wonky assuming all share deal, target stock runs up due to deal leak and throws a wet towel on the process, etc.)
And the list goes on. If you're focused on LMM private companies now, consider yourself lucky as there's a lot more failed deals when dealing clients that BBs / EBs generally serve.
That's great feedback - really appreciate. Any insight into success rates for equity capital raises? I get the sense those are higher.
I made the move from a LMM no-name to a top group at a Blair/Baird type bank. At the no-name, close rate was below 50%. At the MM, close rate was probably ~95%. Groups become much more selective as you go upmarket. Of course the bread and butter for top MM firms is PE sell-sides, similar to the user above when transactions involved public companies the close rate falls.
Thanks that’s helpful. When you say the groups are a lot more selective are you referring to them being a lot more selective about the sell-side mandates / clients they take on? It sounds like better IBs get better clients and subsequently close more deals
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