It seems that the Bulge Bracket, as useless of a term that it is, drastically changes quite frequently. In my lifetime, Lehman, Bear, Salomon, First Boston, and DLJ all went under. Any thoughts on which of the current BBs will be the next to go? What will the club look like in 5 years?
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I think that the current "bracket" will look the same for a long time. Mainly due to stricter regulation and monitoring by the Fed and governments. After what happened with Lehman going under, I doubt the government will let that happen again. I think a lot has changed in banking, I mean really there are only two true investment banks left (American that is) that are BB. In my mind anyways, these large banks will remain at the top for a long time.
i dont think there's any true investment banks left in the BB
The Club
Big 5: JP Morgan, DB, GS, MS, Barcap
UBS, IB division spin-off planned until 2012 BoA Merill Lynch, weak position Credit Suisse plans to reduce its IB division, no spin-off planned
In the USA there is currently no Investment Bank, since GS and MS lost their IB-law status.
I agree, even thought they are not technically IBs, they do not hold deposits such as other BB banks like Citi or JPMC, etc
If you think ANY of these banks are going anywhere then you haven't been following the news close enough. Bernanke all but admitted that the current BBs are too big to fail in his last press conference. Too big to fail really means too big to fail, it isn't just the title of an HBO drama.
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