Incoming analyst looking to purchase a rolex submariner that retails for 10k but is currently going for 14k open box. New to watches and not sure what to do. Anyone have an estimated timeframe of when it would return to 2019 levels?
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Back to normal when there's a deep recession and your bonus is cut so much, you won't want it anymore. I'm in the same boat with cars and am struggling with the 'be careful what you wish for' mentality as I want prices to go lower but not as a result of tanking demand.
What car are you looking at?
previous generation gt3.... after promo though.
Like the other person said, when we have a real recession is when luxury goods and cars/houses will be had on the cheap. Best thing to do is have the money set aside and liquid for when we go into one of those and strike. That's my plan.
Depends what u think normal means. Normal as in not having to beg ur AD for MSRP? Or normal as is in u can buy a watch for under MSRP (25ish% off nautilus, RO etc.)
If u want a watch at MSRP ur starting to see that a lot more lately. Discounts won’t be back for another couple yrs i suspect.
Normal as in MSRP. There was a time where you can get a Nautilus for 25% off?!
Yes, or at least the aquanaut (but pretty sure both). Those weren’t popular models at Patek, most people wanted dress watches and complications. Then influencers started hyping up these other models and the world turned upside down.
The hype will die down once the crypto rich and China new money start to feel poor again. Rolex produces so many watches it’s actually insane to pay a cent above retail. I understand limited editions but paying up for a standard Submariner? These grey market prices will come down when we go into a recession.
It’s so frustrating, I really like the black dial date sub and feel like being a one watch guy. Expected to hopefully be able to get a pre owned for a bit below retail and found out an open box costs 4k more lol… ADs creating a fake waitlist, they just want to flip for more
Rolex is for losers right now. Do not pay above msrp. Do not let an AD have anal with your gf so you get a call.
It's a steel sporting watch....
Recession is here - watch prices are definitely falling and more people are getting calls from AD for Rolex at MSRP.
agree with others - don’t go grey to pay above MSRP. Try to find a local AD and get on their list - if you can handle being patient for a few months you’ll get one (without having to dump money on stupid accessories or jewlery)
To be fair Rolexes are actually not the worst investment and tend to hold their value or depreciate very little as long as you take care of them.
But consider the opportunity cost before buying e.g., 14k growing at 7% for 10 years is ~27.5k. So generally when you are young I would lean towards saving and spending less on luxury goods because you have time on your side and all the money you save now will be worth exponentially more in the future. Plus you’ll get bored of it after a few months and just think of it as your watch not a “Rolex” (no different than a $100 seiko). I made a similar mistake but learned my lesson.
thanks a lot for the advice and I can see your perspective. I just thought that 1-2 years into the job, if i'm so frugal, I lose sense of what I'm working so hard for (I can't feel or see the money in my 401 or account on the day to day and owning a rolex I feel can make you a little more sane. Btw, I'm already a pretty frugal person, upon graduation, I have 50k+ saved up (no student loans) and most of my money in treasuries right now. Do you think I should still forgo the rolex? (I'm going to be a one watch collection) guy
If you really want it and have worked hard to get to the point where you can buy it, then go for it (live your best life). I totally get rewarding yourself.
I have no idea what your net worth is, but given that you just started, I personally would have a hard time justifying putting something like 5-20% of it in a single watch (something that could easily be lost or stolen). Especially given the current job market with layoffs across the board and a high probability of a recession. However, If you wait a few years and get a few bonuses under your belt then it’s a totally different story.
I wouldn't count on the market ever going back to normal. Don't think its a wise purchase as an incoming analyst at over MSRP at a grey. However you can try to build a relationship with an authorized dealer to try to get it at MSRP. Will take some time but certainly doable on a Sub. At MSRP whether it makes sense financially becomes irrelevant.
“The watch market will never go back to normal” - bro this is an awful take
its an entry level luxury good with over a million of them made a year - not some Uber limited edition Hermes bag
2008 Rolex prices plummeted for second hand and gray - will happen again
Yea I heard rolex makes around a million a year and that rolex doesn't care how ADs distribute them, so ADs been stacking inventory to sell straight to grey and give customers the "waitlist" thinking if recession hits and demand is gone, they will happily sell you a watch for retail. Agree it’s entry level luxury, tier below AP and PP, not some Bugatti watch
Not counting on a return to normal does not mean it will never return to normal. You buy a watch to reward yourself now, not as some investment. Heck if you can predict when the prices will crater you can make a lot more money via other means than trying to save a few grand on a Rolex...
Do you people actually wear dive/sport watches to work? I can’t imagine wearing such a watch without feeling like a little boy.
Datejust or daydate for the office.
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