Thoughts on joining UBS now?
Pretty much title. Thoughts on joining UBS in context of CS integration, Barclays hires, deferrals etc?
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Positive! UBS stock price is at all time high. Markets don't lie (mostly :P).
On a serious note, UBS+CS will likely be the strongest non-US BB by year end..
Doubt it will be right side up anywhere near year-end, mergers of this size take YEARS. CS is also incredibly complex so call it 2-5 years to actually integrate these businesses. Maybe in 5ish years UBS will be significantly stronger but it won't be tomorrow. I think you will continue to see changes as they figure out the business units so UBS wouldn't be my primary choice unless I had no other comparable offers.
You always have to weigh these in the context of your other offers. Are you turning down US BBs to join? What role and division?
UBS IB An1 vs. An1 at MM (BNPP, NMR, Macquarie, RBC, etc.) same division?
Seems trivial, but one should also account for the haircuts that can come soon at UBS (worst scenario in a vast plethora)
I'd take RBC over UBS, but would probably take UBS over the rest of those names.
UBS has the potential to do really well but it's a long headache to get there. Even if you are not caught in the layoffs, the bank will be a lot of moving pieces and probably in rebuild the IB business mode for most of your analyst stint. It will take them a while to even figure out what the strategy is, and clients are not going to be giving them big mandates until they level out a bit. It's still a solid BB but it wouldn't be my first choice.
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Opinion on taking a FT offer?
Would accept if its your only offer of course. Lateral market is going to be dead for a while so limited opps to re recruit. In a year things could look different and most of the turmoil at UBS will be cleared away by the time you start
One strategic challenge is they hired a bunch of semis bankers but it’s unclear if the bank is going to pivot away from its post GFC capital light business model. If the bank doesn’t allocate enough lending power to the new MDs, it’s going to go nowhere fast. It’s up to Sergio to define risk appetite and it’s unlikely UBS is going to move quickly based on track record.
Have first-hand experience and wanted to add color as I'm sure many other folks will view this discussion. From the POV of analyst exits, I don't think joining UBS now will be all that different from joining it one or two years ago, prior to the Credit Suisse integration. Strong analysts from strong / technical groups (FSLF, GIG, M&A, and TMT) will continue to have fairly good exits. Very strong credit and PE exits from FSLF, and MM / UMM PE exits from the stronger coverage groups + M&A.
The new personnel joining from CS and Barclays (basically all ex-Lehman folks brought in by Ros L'Esperence) will likely lead to higher deal-flow and better analyst experience. The groups that were already strong will remain so, and a few groups that were previously lagging (TMT, HC, and CP&R) will probably be made somewhat better by the new arrivals - for example, Healthcare is now led by a former CS guy. In short, UBS's investment bank becomes more well-rounded, and moves away from the days when deal flow was monopolized by FSG / Levfin and GIG, as previous posts on WSO will attest to.
Last note that TMT will be split into two following the Credit Suisse model - M&T will be covered out of the NYC office and Technology will likely be covered out of SF.
Edit: For those currently reading through this post, FSLF (Financial Sponsors & Leveraged Finance) was split into two separate groups, FSG and LF.
But what about the fact that the CEO wants to shrink the investment bank? Is that something to consider
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