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Everything depends on how sophisticated AI technologies get, and how quickly.

Firstly, with the pace at which IBs move (in particular for things like Compliance and Legal sign-off, IT implementation, etc.), my hunch is that this takes a while to play out, and (probably) isn't going to be a major concern for a handful of years.

That said, to the extent an AI tool can quickly complete Analyst / Associate tasks like note-taking, basic modelling, company profile production, trading comps / precedent transactions updating (this is sort of already automated), then yes, I do think that there'll be attrition in junior headcount, but not too much.

IB involves a lot of judgment, and very little forgiveness (in the sense that, if a PE asks where a wrong number comes from, and the answer is "AI" or "FactSet", it's embarrassing). So there's a need to supervise, review, and check AI work which isn't going to be upstreamed. Juniors will still be needed for this (although probably menial tasks will be reduced and the team may need a couple less Analysts). The other big reason I'm hesitant to predict a big decline in entry-level positions is that so much is time-senstive, and juniors will need to be on-hand to address client questions about day-to-day work like VDR management. Every transaction is so unique and important for the client, that human being need to be available. Again, the VP isn't going to want to own tasks previously handled by Analysts.

So I think teams will need less juniors, but hopefully those that remain will do somewhat more interesting tasks, and in any event this will take time.

 

As an afterthought to the above, also keep in mind that MDs who find themselves with more junior resources / free time as a result of AI saving time will absolutely find more ways to deploy those resources. It won't offset entirely (even the best and most productive MDs have caps on their own time), but I'd say buckle up for more and fatter marketing decks.

 

I saw a comment earlier and it was interesting. Basically it was saying that in IB, the entry level positions aren’t very valuable to the company, and could be easy to automate in the near future (making slide decks, pushing numbers…). Dude went on to say that the goal of these positions is more of an apprenticeship for higher positions. So yes, ai could wipe out jobs, but then you don’t have a system to feed upper level jobs.

No clue how accurate this is as I’m not even in the industry yet lmao

 

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