America’s axis of evil
Country? Divided. Allies? Abandoned.
Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and the US. Is this the new “axis of evil”?
Europe? Abandoned. Ukraine? On their own. DoD stopped cyber operations against Russia a week ago. Now, all aid is suspended. Taiwan better watch out.
The US already has practically no influence across most of the global south. Foreign aid was a last ditch effort to secure influence for pennies on the dollar. Now, all the pro-US local politicians that went to bat for the US have been discredited (e.g., in Nepal). The very countries China has been courting. You could save their president’s dying mother, and they will never work with the US again.
At least the economy is doing great… right? RIGHT!? Oh wait, tariffs are bad for business. And bad for consumers.
NIH biomedical research funding? Cut. FDA medical device reviewers? Fired. Independent agencies? Independent no more.
Oh, and what’s that about the White House now selecting the press pool that’s privileged enough to ask questions of the President.
Is this what winning looks like?
idk but the vol your president is causing is good for work
He was given a mandate to make me rich
Maybe in HF but for IB Analysts deals are drying up
This is why Citadel was down in February, right?
Citadel down…some teams down a lot, some teams up some
We’re doing fine, if not being told to cut back gross.
There are few if any countries with a more positive future outlook than the USA. Demographics alone will doom the EU, Russia, and China.
Exactly. End of the day, it’s a relative game. And USA is far better than any other country of significant population scale
Well said, the personality cult that took over the republican party got conned by the con man. I mean does anyone consider him a successful businessman? Last time I checked you get points for staying out of bankruptcies.
Trump University? Trump Airlines? Trump Steaks? Trump Casino?
How the fuck do you bankrupt a Casino??
He has and always will be good at one thing only - entertaining. He is funny and thats why "The Apprentice" was a great hit. Hes someone you can laugh at.
Even for a con man, DJT has reached a new low. Telling a wartime leader of a country invaded by the 2nd largest military in the world “you should be more grateful.” “You don’t have the cards.”
Now, all US military aid is on pause, except those already in Ukraine, including those in transit in Poland.
Trump = hero of the Russian Federation.
Yea I mean we dont even need to look too far back, last couple months works.
$60 Trump signed Bibles from China?
Trump Sneakers $500+
Trump NFT he dropped? Lmao
Piece of Trump Assisination suit NFT
Not to mention the $TRUMP and $MELANIA coin that he pumped and rug pulled losing billions for people. That seems like ages ago and just is old news. Part of what makes us seem like we have TDS is that theres so much scandalous things coming from him that it makes you seem actually deranged if you follow it or point it out because of the sheer number of instances.
A new low is letting young Ukrainians die in a war they can't win.
Tbh not just Trump - but people around him, the qualifications, their mindset, things they did before, corrupt things they do now - it’s just mind boggling. Lutnick who rehabbed Sage Kelly and put his sons on top making most hiring decisions? Bannon / Gorka / Miller? WWE in charge of education? RFK and Oz?! Musk is a long list but did anyone notice his guys trying to cancel Verizon FAA contract and give it to Starlink and FAA employee refused to sign and got fired. Ka$h and Don Bozingo running FBI? Even 27 yo press secretary married to a 59 yo. There is so much weirdness makes Matt Gaetz look like a normal guy
Oh btw egg prices keep going up. DOGE keeps revising down estimates and they fat fingered millions to billions (and canceled contracts after work was done). ICE head got pushed out cause he couldn’t get anywhere close to his number (and he can’t cause they don’t have funding for enough people) and btw arrest count which they stopped publishing was wrong anyway - most got released.
Forgot about DUI Pete and Kristi Noem
who took a shotgun and blew her dog to pieces. But yes, yes
Ah Pete. While raging against DEI did anyone even notice that the fired JCOS guy is the same guy Trump promoted last time as Airforce head …
This administration doesn't seem to understand that stability is what business needs. The golden goose of America is the strong capital markets and trust in institutions. All of this policy chaos and agency chaos undermines both of those. It's amazing the mood switch - we were talking about soft landings, death of the business cycle, unlocking productivity via AI, etc. Now it's all about which agencies are being gutted, which ally is being screwed, economic impact of xyz.
Trump seems to live in a zero-sum world, where his only concern is making money for himself at the expense of anything and everything else. The crypto shenanigans? Embarrassing. The Zelenskiy press conference? Embarrassing. US soft power is being destroyed. It's like the US has suddenly become that regarded cousin playing in the sandpit of geopolitics and trade.
My 2c as an Aussie /Englishman.
Lost all respect for your comment right here...
My favorite thing is watching Trump rail against the USMCA - the very trade agreement he negotiated and signed to replace “nightmare NAFTA”
Somehow it went from being the “best agreement we’ve ever made” to “who would ever sign a thing like this?”
“Did I say that…? I can’t believe I said that :P”
Tack on the long list of sycophants and morons who agree with his assessment and its worth the watch lol.
I think he's actually senile/in early stage dementia. I'm not sure he remembers signing the USMCA...
You are confusing "allies" with "freeriding strategic liabilities"
The future is in Asia. Europe is a glorified open air museum that confuses millions of pages of AI regulation with having AI firms to regulate. This is a continent that uses the term "regulatory superpower" unironically with a straight face. I'm not joking - Google it.
America was always going to pivot to asia...the strategic logic is 1+1=2. Trump is simply being an asshole (and hilarious) about it.
Russia can be far more helpful to the US across a range of critical issues (nuclear testing/proliferation, Iran, China, etc etc etc) than the useless Europeans. They chose to freeride on US defense spending for the last 30 years while having the chuzpah to extract hundreds of billions in "fines" from US firms. then it woke up and discovered it's no longer 1945 and they no longer matter to any of the great powers. Life comes at you fast.
It is adorable that the thread title quotes the most catastrophic leader in modern world history at his idiotic worst: George W. Bush. This guy killed over a million of mostly innocent poor people with the Iraq War and its attendant consequences. Promising to add Ukraine and Georgia to NATO in 2008 got both of those countries mauled by the Russian bear. He did all this while calling things good and evil with a straight face.
I'm an American, but JFC Americans are so dumb and self righteous about foreign policy. We are Lenny from of mice and men: a gigantic oaf with a 50 iq that stumbles around the world accidentally killing people.
Ukraine would be 29828228x better off if it never answered the phone when we began meddling in its politics back in 2003 (the orange revolution). Libya is now a hellscape - bang up job there. Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, and Afghanistan? Lol. how are we the "good guys" in your mind?
Not sure what exactly is funny about Ukrainians dying, but thanks Vlad!
Agree with you on the pivot to Asia. Shame on the European freeloaders for fighting alongside our troops in Afghanistan.
I'm going to paste our posts itt (including the op) into chatgpt and ask it to assess how well we know the subject matter.
Hold on I'll be back.
I wrote post A. Post b is your op. I have too much time on my hands
***
Post A is far more knowledgeable about the topic at hand.
Reasons:
Why Post B is Weaker:
Verdict:
Post A is written by someone who understands grand strategy, history, and international relations. Post B is written by someone who is upset about recent events but lacks a structured, analytical approach.
Agree with maybe 50% of what you said…future is probably in Asia but I wouldn’t count Europe out whatsoever. Generally, they will be moving towards deregulation, but at this point on the AI engine front they’re very far behind. Not sure there’s much value trying to catch up vs trying to compete in adoption and use cases.
I am generally in favour of US foreign policy becoming less interventionist, but I think antagonising Europe is a poor way of approaching things. It costs nothing to strategically make the same moves and bring Russia back into the western sphere without antagonising the rest of Europe…who will and are already courting China. Large parts of the European (and British) left & centre are wanting to move closer to China, and further from the US, as ridiculous as that is.
You incorrectly assume that anyone in the foreign policy sphere wants Russia back in the fold. It is much easier to pretend an aged bear that has lost most of its teeth be your grand strategic foe than someone who has a much larger population, productive capacity, and a population where less than 40% of men are full blown alcholics.
What Asian ally would trust the U.S. if we tariff/insult/ditch our close European allies?
They would rightfully wonder if the U.S. would be there for them in 50 years or if another Trumpian character announces a re-focus to Africa (hypothetical) and likewise ditches them to an aggressive China
Counties don't have permanent allies and permanent enemies in some glorified playground.
Countries do have permanent strategic interests though. If Asian allies are smart, they will trust America's strategic interests. If theyre really smart, theyll also ignore whatever bullshit our politicians tell them about "friends" and "shared democratic values" on their way to Saudi Arabia
I dunno. My gut tells me people in other countries are waaaaaay smarter than Americans because they didn't grow up in the global hegemon. The world is a much scarier place for everyone else, so they see the world for how it really works. We're so much more earnest and naive and it drives me up a wall lol
LOL, Europe can go suck a dick. It took threats of 25% tariffs to get Germany to finally equalize automobile tariffs with the US after signing a trade agreement 20 plus years ago that said they would do so.
Uh might want to check out Vietnam. Pretty sure the US spent almost 20 years bombing the shit out of that country and they would prefer America over China 8 days a week.
Yeah our 20% tariffs are going to bring China to our doorstep. If anything, we are directly setting up all of our allies to cozy up to China and shut us out.
I'm sure Europe would love to cozy up to China to put pressure on trump.
The problem is that China has no use for Europe except as a place to visit and dump its exports. You think Germany is in bad shape now? It will become Zimbabwe if the EU lowers tariffs on Chinese EVs.
Europe also is a non-entity in any security competition with the US. theres no universe where China picks Europe over Russia so that it's completely encircled by US allies. An alien could tell you this after looking at a map for 5 minutes
I don't hate Europe personally even if it seems that way. i have nothing but great things to say about my closest friends from the UK and Germany. But I do have total contempt for its leaders and the decisions that put them in such a horrible situation
lol you're lecturing a forum where half the people voted because they felt their IB recruiting outcomes were worse because of DEI - not that it wasn't true but I imagine if the economy collapses, recruiting outcomes might also be impacted a touch.
These tariffs have been an absolute nightmare for us.
I've spent the last few weeks helping our teams rehaul supply chains.
It's outright insulting to Mexicans and Canadians that tariffs are 25% on those countries and only 20% on China. WTF is the message there exactly?
Also, as a Canadian that has ~95% of my cash in USD and most of my net worth in the US...I'm kind of wondering if it's stupid to keep cash in a US bank account? Will the administration randomly decide Canadians with assets in the US should have them hit with bonus taxes?
I've already decided to get paranoid and move cash out of my personal account with Chase there back to Canada...
I think you might want to brush up on your countries history of tariff and protectionism policies. People who complain about tariffs are usually from places that utilize tariffs extensively.
I have hundred of American employees. How much do you contribute?
I voted for abandoning Europe and Ukraine. I am glad this is happening. Start paying up to your statutory NATO obligations, or maybe start having free speech standards on par with the US who is subsidizing your protection, and then we'll talk. As for Canada, Trudeau froze bank accounts of the trucker protests which I don't think even China did that to the Hong Kong protesters, so not sure exactly your point on why we'd want relations with a rogue state.
The economy was going to turn anyway with the yield curve inverted for 2 years. And the idea that we're "fighting for democracy" in Ukraine is laughable. You've got two corrupt countries fighting it out, and we're no longer interested in standing in between them
Guys, America being your sugar daddy is over. Sorry if that upset you.
Any non-rogue states the US regime should prioritize, aside from the Russian Federation?
Not Canada. Not Europe. Not China. We’re already hated across most of South America, Africa, and the Middle East. Even more so, now that we’ve given up all hope with competing with China’s Belt and Road.
Belarus perhaps? North Korea?
As for free speech, isn’t the White House now choosing who in the press is allowed? Instead of the White House Correspondents Association…
… oh and what happens to reports that say “Gulf of Mexico”? Banned from the White House. Subversion of state, I suppose. Good old CCP playbook.
What precisely do you mean by free speech?
Also, love the mental gymnastics of “the economy was going to turn anyway.”
Okay buddy…
Its actually insane how naive you are. Lets say your view on the world is right, I wont pitch you any sort of moral arguments because you dont care about that so il put in a selfish manner.
Stability, alliances, free trade, and avoiding war positive for American Economies. Again I am ignoring any sort of other argument because it doesnt apply to MAGA's.
The reason why the American economy grew so much is because we were in an uprecedented era of stability and spread of democracy and free trade World Wide. The development of the EU, NATO, NAFTA and other liberal democratic organizations has allowed us to avoid trade wars, antagonism, invasions. The very mechanism of NATO has allowed entire continents to buy American and avoid buying Chinese/Russian. Organizations like USAID on top of the organizations above have allowed the US to deploy its soft power across the world.
Perhaps a president that you "Love, Reagan said that the deployment of US softpower through aid is one of the most important parts of our government not only from a geopolitical sense, or even a moral sense but an economic sense. As nations develop and they get pennies of the US GDP they will have preexisting relationships with the US and NEVER have to go to China/Russia. This was already happening across the world in Asia, Africa, Eastern Europe for decades. I dont mean to deflationary im sure you mean well but I can tell that you havent studied this subject, please dont listen to a Crypto Con Man or JD Vance. The destabilization of global peace from rouge murderous dictatorial regimes like Putin's is not only bad for humanity, the world, but extremely bad for the US Economy since that is what your worried about.
Some takes...
"era of stability" - I disagree. Assuming you're talking post-WWII, instances like the Cold War and Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc. would show that WWII to today was not stable. If anything, post-WWII, America's economy grew because Europe was decimated, massive migration flowed into the country, and USA was largely unscathed from the war.
"development of EU, NATO, NAFTA..." - NATO was a military alliance that lost relevance post-fall of USSR. Bulgaria joining the EU doesn't move the needle for USA.
"avoid ... invasions" - lots of people/countries around the world actively dislike USA (antagonism). I also don't see how democratic organizations have helped ameliorate the risk of invasions. What stops military conflict with USA is not "liberal democratic organizations'" it is military superiority and a willingness to use it.
"allowed entire continents to buy American" - less and less. Capital markets are liquid/global and America doesn't really produce many goods anymore, only services and access to their institutions. You don't see a lot of American cars outside of USA...
USAID is the most obvious grift and to defend it is dumb. It is pure money laundering and buying politicians around the world. Clearly if that isn't a mutually beneficial arrangement than why should the USA continue funding 3rd-world governments, political parties, and obscure sources of "soft power"? How the public is not outraged by this I don't understand. We've always wondered how folks in Congress become multi-millionaires on salaries of a few hundred thousands. Well, here it is.
"NEVER have to go to China" - too late. Africa has already moved to working with the Chinese, and S America and MENA are tired of US meddling in their world (eg. Chile, Panama, Israel, Libya, Iraq, etc.). What you are saying is a future risk is actually the current reality of the past 10 years. Also, Russia doesn't have much influence economically. One must be realistic about their GDP & therefore influence.
"extremely bad for the US Economy" - Agreed. I also bet if USA's GDP drops by 3%, the global GDP will drop by 5-10%.
One of the clearest conclusions from the past ~2 months is that US dollar liquidity (via increasing their deficit) for the world is actually what drives the global economy. USA is electing to turn the 'taps' off. This will hurt everyone, but on relative terms USA will win (lose a finger vs. an arm and a leg).
In practical terms, the entire world is invested in US T-Bills. Without liquidity / investment (eg. USAid), economic production will falter, and 2nd and 3rd world economies will contract. They will still have to make payments in USD on the debt. This is a weakness/risk for those countries. A critical point here is if those countries decide to default. If so, I think we could see opportunistic seizure of assets / resources by the US military.
China does not provide respite. China's economy is still well below recent highs as they struggle to move from a production/goods economy to a service-based economy. If the 2nd and 3rd world economies shrink production of goods/services, and there is generally less liquidity in the system (as USA pulls back), who will buy the Chinese goods?
You know what evil is.....perpetuating the murder of hundreds of thousands of young Ukranians in a stalemate war that they can't win while Europe cheers on from the sidelines.
It's time for peace. Any moral person can see that.
How does stopping Patriot air defense shipments and halting DoD cyber operations against Russia promote peace?
It helps force people to the negotiating table versus continuing the stalemate.
If Europe wants to join in on the ground, this war could be won but helping to provide weapons to perpetuate a stalemate rather than negotiate is hugely immoral.
200,000 Americans died over seven years during the revolution -- at a time when the population was much lower.
People have agency. They can choose which causes they want to fight and die for. Freedom and the right to self-determination has always been one of them.
Russia is not a democracy. This isn't just people fighting for a name. If they lose, they lose the right to elect their own representatives and leaders forever.
As an American, the cause of democracy around the globe matters deeply to me. It's a value I was raised to believe in. That we would ever side with a dictatorship over a democracy is a betrayal of the values our nation stands for.
I'm sorry but you are not following the reality on the ground.
Ukraine has brutal conscription and forced draft practices. If you are a young man walking the streets of Kyiv, you can literally be picked off the street and end up on the front line tomorrow. It is horrific. People are being robbed of their free agency and have no choice in this fight.
If it doesn't look like Ukraine can win, negotiate and stop the slaughter. Any other alternative decided from the comforts of EU capitals is evil and immoral.
While Europe spends at least double the amount of money they’ve sent to Ukraine on Russian oil.
Incredibly disappointing that so many finance professionals decided to vote based on culture war bullshit.
For a so-called "pro-business" administration, just about everything has been terrible. So much of this chaos has been driven by the narrative of closing the deficit (which I agree, would be great), but it's clear now that the country's debt is only going to grow.
The tariffs are ridiculous.
The economy has always been what matters, especially to people like us, and he's decided to fuck it up for no reason. This isn't an unavoidable downturn -- it's a choice Trump made because he never stops to think and care about anyone else, including his own people.
"So many finance professionals"
This site is mainly students and people working in tier 2 finance jobs
Very true, but even goes among people I know irl.
But yay, we can say retard again.
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