What are thoughts about how the world will look after this pandemic?
Economic front: The Fed and other central banks have taken unprecedented action to shore up markets, with one consequence being that the Fed's BS is projected to hit roughly $11 and a half T by end of 2022.
Workplace culture: A lot of people are getting used to the idea of no commute, no awkward office conversations, no restriction to desk or cubicle, unlimited access to the home life.
Jobs & general culture: With unemployment set to hit a record 20%, it goes without saying the majority of people will be affected in their view of the country's institutions whether through direct experience or experiences felt by association with their peers.
Policy: There are a lot of political battles being waged right now that have fallen to the back burner but will emerge more prominently in the next recovery: clean energy (oil price fallout, is it a job saver?); US-China relations; economic prosperity & measures for providing a sustainable economy; unforeseen institutional impact due to fallout from economy; etc.
Health: This crisis has proved that Gates and many others were right about the existential threat of infectious disease, and now we're in the midst of a major economic fallout due to that threat, where our current response cannot be our future one. We absolutely need a plan.
The reason I pose this topic is namely that the Fed's actions, current norm in the workplace, general coping mechanisms, and policy, are all caused by the virus but are in effect due to our human need to basically do the total opposite of what we're currently experiencing.
The government, Fed, and business all assume things will return to absolute normal and the pandemic will retreat to the past. But that's not true. So what changes do you seen in the foreseeable future to make those hopes and dreams a reality?
I'm thinking of switching from Econ to CS. I will get MS but I see AI and tech being integrated at a much larger scale now that will be the new norm in the future and the traditional workplace and jobs being a thing of the past. I think being in finance and IB is cool but I also think that finance is a dying industry while tech is the opposite where you could be apart of a VC firm and see your value being added to the world.
I do think business needs to respond, as it can't just be the Fed and fiscal policy kicking in to provide liquidity in markets. And I assume that expansion of the digital world will be at least one business response--which would be an acceleration of expanding the digital world. Not saying anyone should start putting all their eggs into that one basket, but I agree there.
Can't comment on the other macro stuff you mentioend but can say that defintely by early 2021, everyone will be acting as if nothing ever happened. There will be concerts, people will be gathering in large crowds all the time, no one will wear masks, etc. That is assuming we don't get another outbreak
I'd be inclined to think you know more than me, except I can remember when people thought there was no real threat to the US, and the economic hit would be contained to China, which would be downward pressure on the economic outlook, but nothing big.
I can also remember when many companies saw no need to close or move to remote work as the virus was contained once it was in the US in Feb. And I can remember when many thought this would all be over after a month of shutting things down back in March.
It is now May, and although some states have begun reopening on the hopes of gradual return to normal, the markets, Trump, and many spots around the world are having second thoughts about whether reopening is happening too soon.
So, I don't really agree that we can assume that January 2021 would have long forgotten this happened.
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