DNC 2024

I've been thinking about who could run for the DNC nomination but don't really see how any of the prominent ones stand a chance against a Cruz/Haley or Hawley ticket or Trump (assuming he loses) . Biden will be too old (81) to be seen as favorable in running again. No doubt Harris will be eyeing the presidency but even the MSM will be unable to hide or downplay her previous record as DA. Then there's Warren or one of Bernie's followers but imo they would be a turnoff to voters on the fence. So what do you think? Who do you think among the ranks of the libs will take the DNC nomination?

Comments (107)

Controversial
1y
CRE, what's your opinion? Comment below:

First of all, Trump already lost. Let's get that out of the way now. 

Biden will almost certainly be too old, but I would also argue that both Biden and Trump (and Bernie) were too old this go around and we all saw how that played out. 

If Biden does not run again, Kamala will be the clubhouse favorite due to her VP status, but I would expect some of the same people who ran in the 2020 primaries to appear again in an open race. 

In short, it's too early to have any idea whatsoever. 

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1y
IncomingIBDreject, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I mean there were a lot of predictions on the GOP thread. Why would you think the DNC race is too early to predict?

Array

1y
CRE, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I didn't see the GOP thread. I think that's a bit too early to predict with any real certainty either due to Trump's looming presence over the party. 

The issue with predicting the DNC candidate is that it completely depends on if Biden runs again and it is way too early to make that kind of prediction. He could legitimately not make it to 2024. At the same time, since he will have access to the best medical care in the world and a job that will constantly keep his mind fresh, he could be no different in 2024 than he is now. In that case, how is the country? How is his approval rating? Who is his opponent? 

There are just so many variables, including unknown unknowns that we can't possibly predict, that anything beyond "Biden is the favorite if he runs, Kamala is the favorite if he doesn't, etc." is meaningless. In an odd way, the GOP is in a similar situation. "Will Trump run?" is going to loom over Nikki, Hawley, Cotton, et. all. Until that is determined, nothing else matters. 

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Most Helpful
1y
CRE, what's your opinion? Comment below:

More than 270 electoral votes have been certified for Joe Biden. 

The entire "Biden hasn't actually won yet" argument is moronic, as is your "most likely" qualifier. 

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  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Equities
1y

You're thinking into it too much. From a pop culture perspective and with meaningful age demographics DNC is heavily in favor right now, it doesn't matter who they run. People are truly underestimating the power of singers/actors/etc with this stuff. 

1y
IncomingIBDreject, what's your opinion? Comment below:

The thing is though DNC candidates are backed by financial donors who think that person can reasonably win the general election. There will always be people who vote blue no matter the candidate and same for red, but independents are the ones who swing an election either way.

Array

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
1y

I think you're oversimplifying it. Those independents having been trending more to the left as well, and are now almost center-left because of the previously mentioned pop culture perspective and age demographics. Republicans need to have massive turnout among white working class workers to win and I don't think there is anyone who can do that better than Trump. The Electoral College throws in extra variables, but if the GOP doesn't adjust, we could very well see the popular vote margin continue to increase.

1y
MFCRE, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I agree that's it's too early to tell, other than that I think Biden probably won't run (but I could be surprised). I think if he doesn't run Harris won't go unchallenged - it seems to me an open primary in either 2024 or 2028 is important for a big chunk of the party and people don't want a "coronation" for Harris.

Also, felt it was worth pointing out DNC is not a shorthand for the Democratic Party the way GOP is shorthand for the Republican Party. There is an RNC too after all. The DNC is part of the party, but not the party itself. 

  • Associate 1 in IB-M&A
1y

I think I sound like an idiot, but if a Democrat is the incumbent does the Democratic party need to have another candidate against Biden?

1y
Urban Mogul, what's your opinion? Comment below:

No. Whoever is the incumbent is automatically their party's nomination, unless the incumbent states that he/she does not wish to run for election. This happen when Lyndon B Johnson did not seek re-election. In this 2020 election, Trump was automatically his party's nomination because he's the incumbent, the same with Obama in 2012. 

Funniest
1y
financeabc, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Thanks. So what is this thread about? Is this not talking about presidency?

This thread is about stirring up controversy four years in advance.  

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1y
Urban Mogul, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Honestly, it's way too crowded and unclear now to make an accurate prediction. But since this is just preliminary talk, I think the three best candidates that could not only win the nomination but also beat a moderate Republican - Andrew Cuomo, Pete Buggieg, and Andrew Yang. And since this is just for fun, I'll peg Tulsi Gabbard as a darkhorse candidate. Each candidate has his/her own flaws but it's definitely possible to see them elected. Deep down, I highly doubt Biden wanted to run for POTUS but the DNC convinced him because they did not have a centrist candidate that could appeal to moderate conservatives. He'll be 81 in 2024 and will not seek re-election. For the love of God, I hope the DNC does not push Kamala, she does not even have support from a lot of liberals/progressives. Her track record is bad. 

1y
CRE, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Urban MogulI think the three best candidates that could not only win the nomination but also beat a moderate Republican - Andrew Cuomo, Pete Buggieg, and Andrew Yang. And since this is just for fun, I'll peg Tulsi Gabbard as a darkhorse candidate. 

Respectfully, I'm not sure you really have your finger on the pulse of the party.

  • Cuomo is a non-starter after his hit or miss Covid response and his generally unlikable persona. The only thing that makes Cuomo look good is that he is often pitted against de Blasio, who is worse, and makes Cuomo look better. 
  • Yang is a single-issue candidate. Maybe if he runs for Mayor of NYC as has been rumored, wins, and does a good job...but that's a big maybe.
  • Buttigieg is a legitimate choice, and seems incredibly capable, but needs more experience and is hated by the "progressives."
  • Tulsi Gabbard is hot garbage. Just actual trash. 

Also, I disagree with your overall premise because no moderate Republican would make it through the Republican primary. Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan aren't getting very far in a Presidential run. 

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1y
Urban Mogul, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I can see why you have those views and I respect it but like I said this is preliminary, fun talk. Our current president elect hasn't even been inaugurated. My guess is just as good as yours. 

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
1y

I think the tune for Buttigieg has changed some among progressives since he joined the Biden team as a senior adviser and been the Democratic party heavy hitter in mini-debates on Fox News. He isn't as centrist as he seems and clearly has new young ideas that differ him from Pelosi/Schumer. 

1y
Compass.8, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Buttigieg can be scratched off the list. There is no "serious" office in Indiana that he has a shot at winning. He could put up a run against Todd Young in 2022, but Todd is already a moderate Republican. In 2016, Todd beat a popular Democrat Senator and Indiana Democrat "All-Star" by 10% to win his seat. 

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
1y

Why are you thinking Andrew Cuomo? Seems like he has gotten a lot of pushback because of the huge suffering and restrictions in New York. Although, it's a lot harder to control COVID in NYC than rural North Dakota.

I think there were plenty of centrist candidates but none of them really had the national name recognition like Biden. Several of them decided not to run when Biden jumped in the race, since he was assumed to dominate the center-left path. As we saw, the ones that did run like Klobuchar, Bullock, and Hickenlooper could never gain real traction.

1y
Urban Mogul, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I'm thinking Cuomo because he has the household name. People know him. He won't have any problems raising money. He isn't as young as I'd like but he'd be 66 around 2024 Election Day, still much younger than Biden. Cuomo is a quasi-progressive, more so centre-left guy. In NY, he's been a friend to Wall St and real estate while also pushing forward progressive programs and legislation. He isn't too keen on raising taxes either. Now I understand that ultra progressives like AOC and Bernie don't entirely agree with everything he does but that's okay. His biggest challenge would be to convince rural and suburban voters that he's not just some coastal elite like Pelosi and Schumer. 

1y
Pierogi Equities, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Harris/Newsom will run in 2024, you heard it here first

Quant (ˈkwänt) n: An expert, someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.

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1y
CRE, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I'd be surprised to have two people from the same state on the same ticket. Typically that's not how it works. 

I generally like CA's American Psycho looking Governor, but he really made an ass out of himself by going against his own COVID restrictions. Not as big of an ass as Garcetti, mind you, but it wasn't a good look. Going against your own advice seems to be becoming more and more common, unfortunately. 

Commercial Real Estate Developer

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  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
1y

The Democratic party really needs to stop nominating candidates from New York and California that don't have appeal in flyover country. It's a poor strategy for the same reason that Republicans don't nominate candidates from Alabama or Mississippi. You're already going to win those states by large margins and the other candidate can easily frame you as someone who doesn't represent most of the nation.

  • Associate 1 in IB-M&A
1y

I can definitely see this. Although the times they do change, and who knows what newsome is going to do over the next 4 years to fuck that up for himself (I have a lot more faith in Kamala to remain viable). Buttigieg is worth mentioning (will probably run against Todd Young for IN senator in '22; tough though because IN is a generally Republican state; regardless he might go for house of reps or some exec branch appointee before then anyway; let me know if I'm missing something obvious here.) Another more dark horse candidate might be Tammy Duckworth from IL. However, it's probably more strategic to get someone from a swing state like a prominent OH, PA, GA, NC Democrat. I don't really see any of the names from the past cycle getting any the ticket (save for maybe Klobuchar or Beto). I am not a huge fan of Robert Orourke but we could be seriously faced with Texas being a full-on purple state by 2024 (who knows) but the intranational immigration from blue states to Texas is becoming more and more relevant (we are seeing this in AZ as well).

1y
calvincoolridge, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Two california liberals will have zero appeal in the heartland.  Horrible choice.

It would be like the gop running two bubbas from Alabama 

Array
1y
Pierogi Equities, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I'm not saying they would win necessarily if they made it that far, but I still think it's something that can happen and I wouldn't be as surprised. It is a bit of a stretch though, but for some reason I see it being more likely than throwing Cuomo into the mix.

Quant (ˈkwänt) n: An expert, someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.

1y
Alt-Ctr-Left, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Find the 2012 GOP post-mortem thread and let me know if anyone predicted Trump would be nominated and win :)

Practically speaking, I don't see how it will be anyone but Biden or Harris. If Biden doesn't run and someone beats Harris for the nomination, I'd suspect the party will be so fractured and/or the Biden presidency was a disaster, meaning the GOP nominee will win no matter who runs as the Dem nominee.

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."

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  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
1y

Disagree about Harris losing being a disaster. I think she will be treated like any of the other major candidates in a potential 2024 primary. As long as Bernie doesn't run in 2024, the Democrat base will be much happier with the primary process since the DNC won't have to step in and make sure a more moderate candidate wins. And despite all of the talk about a fractured Dem party, the Republican party will be just as fractured post-Trump.

1y
CRE, what's your opinion? Comment below:

the DNC won't have to step in and make sure a more moderate candidate wins

Worth pointing out that this did not happen in either 2016 or 2020. "The DNC" didn't choose Clinton or Biden. Voters did. 

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1y
Alt-Ctr-Left, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Disagree about Harris losing being a disaster. I think she will be treated like any of the other major candidates in a potential 2024 primary. As long as Bernie doesn't run in 2024, the Democrat base will be much happier with the primary process since the DNC won't have to step in and make sure a more moderate candidate wins. And despite all of the talk about a fractured Dem party, the Republican party will be just as fractured post-Trump.

I won't disagree with the GOP being equally fractured, especially if 78-year old 2x popular vote loser Trump Leeroy Jenkins his way back into the picture. I just don't know how practically Harris campaigns on her record, somehow loses the nomination, but then the Dem nominee wins the general election anyway.

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."

  • 3
1y
IncomingIBDreject, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Trump was definitely the exception rather than the norm in that regard.

Array

1y
IncomingIBDreject, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Trump may choose to run but he also has to win the party nomination

Array

  • Analyst 1 in IB - Gen
1y

Trump will easily win the party nomination. The parties have already partly realigned with non-Trump Republicans in the suburbs shifting to the Democratic party and Trump's base becoming a much larger part of the Republican party. Any moderate would have no chance at winning the nomination and it would be career suicide for any of his allies in the Senate to campaign against him.

1y
iercurenc, what's your opinion? Comment below:

The fact that Kamala has a shot at becoming the first female President makes me wish that Hillary won in 2016.

1y
Yankee Doodle, what's your opinion? Comment below:

McCain should have won in '08 and then kicked the bucket and fucked off to hell to be tormented by the souls of Iraqi children killed.

Then milf Sarah Palin makes America great again. 

"Work ethic, work ethic" - Vince Vaughn

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1y
Yankee Doodle, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Tulsi Gabbard is someone I have a lot of respect for and actually will call out the darker side of the American imperial war machine. Unfortunately, she was the subject of a brutal hit job by intelligence community-connected media outlets, and is a persona non grata in Democratic politics.

Instead we're going to get another neoliberal sociopath.

"Work ethic, work ethic" - Vince Vaughn

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1y
CRE, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Yankee DoodleInstead we're going to get another neoliberal

One can only hope.

Tulsi Gabbard is both a terrible candidate and utterly irrelevant to the Democratic party. 

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1y
financeabc, what's your opinion? Comment below:

CRE

Yankee DoodleInstead we're going to get another neoliberal

One can only hope.

Tulsi Gabbard is both a terrible candidate and utterly irrelevant to the Democratic party. 

The main reason some people like Tulsi Gabbard is they think she is hot but.... she is not.

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1y
Yankee Doodle, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Neoliberals have been leading the Western world down a dark path since the 1980s. Of course a liberal moralizing chickenhawk warmonger like yourself would like them. You probably believe that anyone opposed to war is a Russian bot.

"Work ethic, work ethic" - Vince Vaughn

  • Analyst 1 in Risk Mnmgt
1y

I think Kamala will be the favorite if Biden steps down, which isn't a given. But I don't know how she'll perform or be viewed. It certainly seems like GOP affiliated media outlets are making her/Biden out to be Fidel Castro and that seemed to resonate very strongly with key demographics in the race, perhaps what turned a blue sweep to a close election. I don't know if Pete would do well either-I don't think he performs well with PoC and I wonder if the electorate is too conservative to consider an LGBT candidate. Tulsi is probably a Russian plant and I think the DNC likely hates her, plus she performed miserably in the primaries. Beto is likely dead to the DNC as a leading candidate, so hopefully he just focuses on Texas instead. Maybe Klobuchar? It'll likely be someone relatively center-left as compared to progressive and hopefully younger than Biden/Trump. A candidate as progressive as Bernie might see a wide pushback in states like Florida or Arizona and a younger candidate will be a breadth of fresh air since one of the likely opponents will be an aged Trump.

1y
MMBanker14, what's your opinion? Comment below:

The same Cruz that almost lost to Beto, who was the worst candidate in the primaries this time around, in a conservative state? Yeah, that Cruz has no shot at President, and I don't think anyone would make him their VP pick. 

God forbid Trump tries to run again. Hopefully Haley or Tim Scott can make her/his way out of the crowded field. That'd be an interesting match up (and probably fairly favorable if the Biden presidency is meh or worse) vs Harris or anyone else the Democrats nominate.

  • Prospect in IB - Gen
1y

Ron DeSantis or Marco Rubio for President with Elise Stefanik or Nikki Haley as VP would be the best move for the GOP. Trump loves DeSantis and Stefanik and does not have issues with Rubio and Haley. The GOP needs to make sure that their 2024 picks don't bear Trump's wrath on Twitter.

1y
CRE, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Ron DeSantis

That is a stretch, unless "loyalty to Trump" is the only factor that matters. Haley and Rubio come across as intelligent human beings. DeSantis comes across as an utter imbecile. 

Commercial Real Estate Developer

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  • Intern in IB - Cov
1y

Agreed. I could be eating crow in 4 years, but I feel like Cruz really doesn't have much going for him. He's not charismatic at all, comes off (and is) an opportunistic snake with no backbone, and just isn't a character that people rally around. I will give him this: he is a brilliant legal scholar (I am liberal but his resume speaks for itself). Unfortunately, we see that the modern GOP does not care about intelligence or professional chops.

  • Analyst 1 in S&T - Equities
1y

I really don't get the Cuomo thing. Let's put opinions aside for a sec; the fact of the matter is that NYS has had one of the highest deaths per capita in THE WORLD from COVID. This includes third world countries. Our unemployment is ~300bps higher than the national average the last time I viewed the numbers. For the life of me I can't understand the attraction. NY did not "win" this like he insinuates and writes books about. Say whatever you want about FL governor and the like about their COVID policy but at the end of the day FL has a greater population than NY and less deaths. By all metrics NY's COVID response was a failure. 

1y
CRE, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I swear that Cuomo benefits tremendously because of his rivalry with de Blasio, who is a terrible, terrible politician. In comparison, Cuomo looks like Superman. 

Commercial Real Estate Developer

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1y
Kawhi Anthony Leonard, what's your opinion? Comment below:

He also gets good press because his brother is a CNN anchor and he would be on the network all the time. I don't have the hate boner for CNN a lot of people do, but I have to admit those segments with the Cuomos clearly had a conflict of interest and made Governor Cuomo look much more competent than he really was

I’m a fun guy. Obviously I love the game of basketball. I mean there’s more questions you have to ask me in order for me to tell you about myself. I'm not just gonna give you a whole spill... I mean, I don't even know where you're sitting at

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1y
PrivateTechquity 🚀GME+BBBY🚀, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I don't know, but if they're not a gay trans socialist born as a cis woman of color to multi-racial parents they clearly don't deserve the nomination since that's the direction the party is headed. 

Array

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1y
PeterMBA2018, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Harris got bounced out of the dem primaries super early. Like before voting even started. I wouldn't rate 3 years as VP on a ticket everyone knows was put together for the sole purpose of beating Trump too highly next primary season. Especially as there is no Trump bogeyman on the other side next time to get people in line (well, probably not lol). 

Array
1y
Isaiah_53_5 💎🙌💎🙌💎, what's your opinion? Comment below:

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  • Analyst 3+ in IB - Gen
1y

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1y
IncomingIBDreject, what's your opinion? Comment below:

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