Hey Monkeys.
I noticed that a lot of you are very smart on history. I'm trying to get smart on the aging population and the implications. Is there a book that does a good job on summarizing what happened throughout history when there are too many old people?
Thanks.
I think the playbook is still being written on this. we could point to Japan, but idk if that's really an issue. their old people problem wouldn't be a problem if there were young people procreating.
I could envision a world where old people aren't a net drag on society because they enter retirement healthier, we have better therapies for neuropathy/alzheimers/dementia, better info about nutrition and diet (thus reducing disease from things like inflammation & obesity), but the way our culture (america) is right now, if you look at data your mind can take you to a scary place.
but, idk that we'll even get there (to where healthcare/entitlement spend on the elderly crowds other stuff out), my generation (millenials) is already forecasted to overtake the boomers in numbers, and I'd bet that within the next 10 years, we start seeing legislation on entitlement reform so that the burden on the system by millenials is far less (though I wish legislation was already in place)
Just to clarify, when you say "within the next 10 years", do you mean that there will be legislation to limit what the boomers get? I'm just a little confused because I feel like boomers will still be there after 10 years.
no, I just think the country's finances will reach a breaking point in around 10y. and I think the political cycles will match that
2020: trump reelected if he runs, if he doesn't run, far left dem elected, country in the midst of a mild recession (a la 2008 elections)
2024: far left dem either elected/reelected, blows out budget, deficit grows to 5-7% of GDP
2028: tea party 2.0 comes back, paul ryan rides in on horseback with john anderson on his shield and the head of a bernie sanders look alike a la john the baptist in hand. people face the prospect of getting a 5% cut to their SS checks or changing the calculus for future generations, and all of a sudden, the problem is solved (for SS anyway, medicare's just a clusterfuck)
I think Japan, Italy and Spain will be a real interesting test subjects on this. The following things are concerning:
The structure of Age demographics. Google "Age demographics of Spain", "Age demographics of Italy", "Age demographics of Japan" and look how they're turning into inverse pyramids.
As you mentioned healthcare, the structural proportion of the population is doubly concerning. For instance, a few years ago there was a study that people 65 and over make up 38% of all Healthcare spending. The population percentage at the time was 13%. That means per capita that persons over 65 costs 4.1x for healthcare.
Those 3 countries mentioned have a lot of sovereign debt. I don't know if they can simply raise taxes to bring in the revenue as almost all of them have slowing economies. Spain and Italy are already having a hard time keeping their young populations in Country.
It'll be interesting for sure.
Not a book, but this documentary explores one of the most significant developments in the U.S. aging population over the last 15 years...
https://www.amazon.com/Brainwashing-My-Dad-Matthew-Modine/dp/B01C6AFEQG
Read Will and Ariel Durant's Lessons in History. It's superb.
It's not just about this topic, but you will be able to better understand how society ebbs and flows. Increasing ageing is only one piece, and there are many connected piecing.
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