H-1B vs AI?
Why are people so afraid of H-1B’s when AI is taking jobs at a faster rate? I try to not assume Pepe are racist but sometimes that’s how it comes off as. There was a huge convo going on here about how it’s “unethical” for companies to hire H-1B’s because it takes away jobs. But these same people support an administration that gives $30 billion in tax cuts to dats centers creating technology that is actively TRYING to PERMANENTLY get rid of your job. At least an H-1B can leave and someone else can take the spot. But when AI touches your job, it’s gone forever.
Will come back to this
Do you have data to prove that H1B is taking less jobs than AI?
It’s not necessarily about who’s “taking” more jobs, it’s about the fashion in which it’s happening. My argument is that H-1B’s “occupy” jobs while AI actually takes them. In the sense of, all things held equal, an H-1B does not stay in a role permanently, and will soon exit making space for another worker regardless of background, while AI sits in roles permanently, eliminating them, or substantially cutting head count. Due to that, it would make more sense to point the finger at AI for the current lack of jobs that people seem to say is happening than H-1B programs.
No one is "afraid" of H1Bs. They're also a lot easier to curb at the moment given a sympathetic administration coupled with people finding out what is actually happening with these programs. People are upset at the fraud that takes place, too, on top of losing actual good paying jobs. India, for example, should have been utilized for basic work but 15 years ago you already had tons of firms trying to figure out how to finagle higher tier work by training them, instead of the domestic workforce. It's short-sighted and honestly laughable people can't see that we're brain draining a lot of these places, essentially ensuring they'll never be dominant. Meanwhile, I know many smart Europeans who have zero shot of ever getting to come and work here.
In the case of places like China, it's again not fear, but the absurdity of allowing so many in when their government and ours (collectively the West) are vying for global supremacy over the next 30-50 years. In short, Americans are too open and naive while also being too short-sighted (read: greedy).
With that being said, I think people will look back and say similar things about Ai that they did for 'cheap labor'. Because all of this sentiment around h1bs has begun to creep in in recent times, despite it being prevalent for a long time. It was seemingly fine and flew under the radar when it was just a few engineers being hired for legitimately difficult work that required specialists. Again, over 10 years ago, it was already evident it was being used for so much more than that.
Another argument for not being a doomer on Ai is that jobs will pivot, as they always have. You have to contend with the fact that in our lifetime a lot of jobs we grew up seeing people do will no longer exist or be an option. While on the other hand there will be a multitude of jobs opened up that we can't currently conceive of.
Hey thanks for your input. I believe the idea of “fraud” has quite frankly been overplayed. America is so vast, and so are her policies that extend to millions of people, and in the midst of that there are bound to be bad apples. I’m willing to bet that if you look deep into any government initiative, there will be some level of fraud. That being said, you can’t curb a program that helps a lot of people trying to do good because of some bad apples, if that’s the case, a deep dive should be taken across board.
Secondly, a short one, you mentioned Europeans that want to work here but can’t, I’ll be honest that rubs me the wrong way. I’m European, but whenever I hear that, it always comes off to me as bigoted or racist, not saying that you are, that’s just how it comes off. Europe is really small, and most Europeans don’t even want to come to America, most of us are socialists to an extent, and places like India and China are much larger, ergo, more people coming to America.
Lastly, you mentioned about how jobs change, and that AI will cause jobs to pivot, not get rid of them citing how jobs we grew up with may no longer exist. Good points, but what companies are racing for isn’t to just develop AI and make it smarter, they’re chasing superintelligence, where the AI doesn’t need to be prompted, so little to no human interaction is needed. This is different than automation, and will harm American jobs more than immigration ever will. And to be honest, quite frankly, I don’t think it’s fair that a lot of the anti immigration and and anti H-1B sentiment is coming from grandchildren of immigrants who came in the early 1900’s and took advantage of that same system, well an older version of it, and ate now trying to close the door they freely walked through for others.
Sorry this is so long. Thanks again for the input
Thanks for the thoughtful reply.
RE: Fraud - Sure, I agree. Fraud and abuse anywhere should be kept to a minimum.
RE: Europeans - Me saying what I did was solely from speaking with my European friends. Interesting that you perceived my comment that way. Europe is awesome and I wish I could have had the opportunity to go work there (I missed a chance and regret that).
Another random anecdote I thought of. At my last job, the person directly above me was from another country and was here initially on a student visa. Our industry and company did not need to hire someone from his country because his experience essentially identical to American's. When people were vying for a promotion, it was between two Americans and him. Ultimately, he won out. All three were decent options (admittedly, none stellar). He will work here, get paid in USD, then retire to his home country when he's done. Mind you, this guy comes from a well-off family.
RE: AI - Fair points. I'm not sure I have anything further to add. There's scenarios I can see playing out that are indeed devastating. Do you think people and companies will lose the ability to chose human labor over AI?
RE: Immigrants sentiment about immigrants - I think after 2-3 generations people tend to forget those kinds of things you mention. On the other hand, most immigrant groups in America vote Left from what I've seen.
I'm glad I didn't learn2code. OP, what is your plan going forward with the rise of AI?
RE: Comment on anti-immigrant sentiment coming from Americans that are descendants from immigrants:
Main issue is that H-1B's are going to top colleges and receiving top jobs, even though that is not how the American Immigration system was set up generations ago. Immigrants would come into the country not even dream of going to college and work very difficult blue collar jobs like building the George Washington bridge. Then their sons fought in wars for America while there daughters worked in factories still no college education. Next generation children finally go to college work formidable jobs. These immigrants built the amazing country we know today. Now a days top colleges are filled with international students and H-1B's stealing top Jobs. Skipping generations of struggle that immigrants and their children and grand children had to go through.
H1-B's are very visible and if you work with them you'll see them regularly.
AI and AI tools are very discrete. People don't know where the tech is at nor do most know what is being worked on behind the scenes. Most people just look at popular LLM models and think that's all there is to it but it's just not the case.
Eventually AI workflow tools for every white collar job will get pretty good and release and then it will seem sudden but it was years in the making
nah, there are plenty of US citizens / permanent residents, i.e. non H1-Bs, who have accents, so you could mistake them for H1Bs.
and on the other hand, AI tools is something that everybody is using, seeing, and talking about on daily basis.
in regards to AI tools i'm not just talking about LLMs i'm talking about AI tools that will replace 60-90% of juniors and even mid-level people in white collar jobs.
We're not at that point yet ofc, but many companies are working hard today to create AI workflow automation tools that'll do just that.
Yeah I agree. We’re seeing primarily tech companies ramping up layoffs in recent years, these companies have always had H-1B programs but all of a sudden are laying people off in the thousands. Immigration isn’t causing that, AI is. We should put more of our focus there and instead of legislation on H-1B, legislation should be on AI, before most of us are automated out of job.
Why not fix both?
Good question. My take is this, right now the current administration is pushing heavily to deregulate AI and over regulate H-1B programs. They claim there is fraud within the H-1B program, and not to justify, but there is fraud in every program. I argue that if H-1B is to tightened due to fraud, every other program should be tightened as well. And lastly, AI should be just as heavily regulated. I hope that answers your question, thanks for the question.
Really just is a backlash at the influence Indians have on Tech Industry Labor Jobs. Also add general social atomization among the youth, the fact that a significant portion of the American Demos doesn't really have any social mobility because they lack the real benefits immigrants possess at the 1st and 2nd gen and loose at the 3rd (strong ethnic networks, shared solidarity, etc...) I imagine.
Hey, not fully sure I get what you’re saying but I think you’re saying that people weren’t halo about the influence Indiana’s have over the tech industry, and that Americans no longer have that strong collectiveness that Indians do.
I can only really answer the first part. I’m not Indian, but I can say that it is true, they are dominant there, they’re the CEO’s of a lot of these large corporations. However, id say they’ve done a pretty good job. We’re seeing some of the best periods for tech companies now. That’s all I have to say lol
DEL
“Why are people so afraid of H-1B’s when AI is taking jobs at a faster rate?”
AI hasn’t “taken” any jobs. It’s been used as a convenient excuse to cut headcount.
recruiting slowed down a lot since AI became mainstream. our team used to hire like 50-70 juniors per year. now it's like 7-10 juniors.
Yeah. The fewer people you pay, the more money seniors keep.
Perfect strategy for a garbage economy.
Thankfully even under a Dem regime, we will likely not return back to the era of wholesale mass immigration that we had in the 2010s for white collar work, or even blue collar. Tech is becoming more saturated, no one wants domestic jobs to be lost to foreigners. Eventually robotics will also replace 50-60% of blue collar tasks
Both of these are fine in the US given we have an inverted pop pyramid with ageing demographics, and a huge blue collar work shortage regardless. The US is in a good position as it relates to robotics & AI to both keep employment high and productivity booming
We should allow some immigration but selectively across things that we will just not easily resolve shortages for (top AI talent, plumbers, etc)
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