Handicapping the 2016 GOP nomination

It's never too early to talk about the 2016 election. The GOP field is totally wide open; not since 1964 has the race been so widely open, with no clear frontrunner or heir apparent. Here are my thoughts on the main guys who will probably run.

Jeb Bush: the big gorilla in the room. His last name is a potential liability, but I think people overestimate it. He's nothing like his older brother; Jeb is very smart, wonkish, relishes policy, and is very articulate. He can also appeal to latinos given his background (fluent in spanish, worked extensively in latin america, former governor of florida, and married to a hispanic woman). Jeb also has cross-over appeal given his moderate stance on social issues and immigration along with a general moderate demeanor. He has also done a lot of work on education reform since leaving the governor's mansion. The downside for Bush is that his immigration policy could bite him in the butt in the primary. Jeb's toughest challenge is being able to convince the ultra-conservative base that he's a "real" conservative.

Chris Christie: he's been a solid governor. He is a tough talker, anti-union, etc., which the base loves. But at the end of the day, he's a moderate republican from new jersey, and I'm not sure if the base will every totally buy him. His bombastic style will also hurt him in the general if he wins the nomination. His straight talking schtick will only go so far. I'm very interested to see what type of policy platform Christie will run on if he decides to run. Will be pull of a Romney by focusing on his executive experience and competence? Or will he present himself as the ideological alternative to the Tea Party craze?

Ted Cruz: fascinating figure. He is actually scary smart (Dershowitz said Cruz is one of the most brilliant students he ever taught at Harvard Law), but unfortunately he has been saying so many crazy shit. Biggest problem with Cruz is that he leaves no room for compromise, a quality that is devastating for someone who wants to lead this country. On pure ideological terms, Cruz is the most appealing to the GOP base. If he's the nominee though I think Hillary will absolutely crush him. I also don't think that Cruz has much appeal to Latinos either; most of them will not be able to connect with him. However, a part of me thinks that the GOP will be very reluctant to nominate someone who has been in the Senate for just 4 years.

Rand Paul: the wild card in the race. No doubt that he's running. He has several things going for him. First, he's nowhere as kooky as his dad. He can espouse libertarian views without scaring people. Second, he has a huge grassroots base inherited from his dad, and he's continually building upon it. I just don't see Paul going anywhere though. Paul's isolationist foreign policy is a huge anathema to the GOP base. The party has not nominated an isolationist since the 1920's.

Marco Rubio: total fluff, an empty suit. He had his 15 minutes of fame, but he's basically the GOP latino version of Obama. Very little substance, and in my opinion not that intelligent. He's a VP nominee at BEST.

 

From a historical perspective, what would be odd would be a Clinton vs Bush presidential race. You'd then have the US presidency run by two families for >25 years running, except for Obama's two terms. That would be real end of the Republic/beginning of the Imperium sort of stuff.

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Mitt could win. He did well against Obama and all his predictions are true. I think he learned a lot last time and is a moderate republican.

Christy is dead on arrival. No one in the south is voting for a loud mouth NJ governor.

Ted Cruz is smart as shit and great, but people can't read past the headlines. I'd vote for Rick Perry before him.

Rubio is a VP, not president.

1, he is Cuban. He isn't going to pull Mexicans which are the Democrat voting block.

2) you need more than Florida to win

Jeb has the Bush legacy. I cannot see him winning.

Democrats need to worry though. Obama was pure hype and got lock step voting. Hillary won't get that. Warren is a horrible person to nominate. Who else could be moderate.

And what's with this new trend of VPs that never run? Used to be the on deck spot.

 

to the VP point, probably something that coincides with the 24/7 exposure anyone can get in government nowadays. It strikes me that before the VP gets all the recognition with the presidential ticket and then is the most recognizable name. Now that has entirely changed with the internet, media, etc.

 
TNA:

Mitt could win.

Agreed. Surprised, like others, that he wasn't mentioned here. I think if he throws his name in he's the favorite on the republican side at least, maybe a slight favorite over all.
This to all my hatin' folks seeing me getting guac right now..
 
Cruncharoo:
TNA:

Mitt could win.

Agreed. Surprised, like others, that he wasn't mentioned here. I think if he throws his name in he's the favorite on the republican side at least, maybe a slight favorite over all.

I am a huge Mitt fan,... I like him better than any of the other GOP contender by a large margin. I'd take Perry over alot of the guys mentioned above. Hell, I'd take Herman Cain over a bunch of them too.

 

Am I the only one that thinks a general curtailment of the news would be good?

Like magazines and books can do whatever, but CNN/Fox, cut them to like 3 hours a day.

The news don't really inform anyone anymore.

 

Hillary is no shoe in.

1) Dems squandered a lot of good will.

2) Hillary is old and near the outer range of age for elected president

3) women don't vote lock step like other groups. She will turn off a lot of people.

4) rates are going to go up and the Fed will have to start winding down its book. This is going to happen just before Obama leaves. Not a nice handoff to any Democrat.

Obama is selfish and a bad politican. Hillary should have won in 2008. Obama would be young and would win for 8 years right after her. Instead he rushes it, gets elected with no experience and acts like a fool and no Hillary is old, tainted from being sec state and has bad headwins. Poor strategy.

 
<span class=keyword_link><a href=/company/trilantic-north-america>TNA</a></span>:

Hillary is no shoe in.

1) Dems squandered a lot of good will.

2) Hillary is old and near the outer range of age for elected president

3) women don't vote lock step like other groups. She will turn off a lot of people.

4) rates are going to go up and the Fed will have to start winding down its book. This is going to happen just before Obama leaves. Not a nice handoff to any Democrat.

Obama is selfish and a bad politican. Hillary should have won in 2008. Obama would be young and would win for 8 years right after her. Instead he rushes it, gets elected with no experience and acts like a fool and no Hillary is old, tainted from being sec state and has bad headwins. Poor strategy.

Couldn't agree with this more. Obama saw a crack of daylight and took it first chance he got. Would have more beneficial for him to wait 8 years and run he would have had political experience in the Senate and would have learned to work within the system. Hilary is old now and will be really old by the time the next election would roll around.

I would actually like Mitt to run again but not likely to happen.

"When you expect things to happen - strangely enough - they do happen." - JP Morgan
 

Mitt may or may not have sucked as a president, but people talking about him not having a plan are beyond dumb. Mitt has his next 10 bowl movements planned out with a slide deck to illustrate the wiping motion and approximate water use per flush.

Obama wasn't prepared for the role and he surrounded himself with lackeys. I blame his cabinet almost as much as I blame him.

Like who allowed him to talk about red lines with Syria? Why did he try surge tactics in Afghanistan when it was obvious it wasn't the same theater as Iraq. His comments on race were utterly unhelpful and mangled. Like talk about race in general, don't say trayvon could look like my son.

I just don't get this guy.

 

People shit on Perry, but didn't it come out that he maybe had an issue with his eyes or something which caused him to perform so poorly in the primary?

I'm kinda cool on the southern Republican shit. We need to kill off the religious conservative arm of the party.

 

I don't think Mitt gets the nomination, or any moderate republican really, because the right is really pushing for a hard core conservative and that's who votes in primaries in the biggest numbers, the far right and far left. And the hard right feels far too emboldened by the mid terms. Both parties get way too full of themselves when they win big, Dems in 06/08, Repubs now, and think it's a mandate to move further towards the left or right when they really only captured the probably less than 10% of voters in the middle who will actually not vote along party lines.

Maybe that's Cruz (but honestly he has some baggage for the general-I know he was involved in a few somewhat shady business deals and his wife's a GS MD which dems can paint as super bad) or someone we don't know yet, but Hillary will beat a conservative. The dems won't vote for a conservative and someone too far right will alienate the swing voters.

At least that's my guess. I wouldn't doubt a third party candidate coming out from either side though.

 

Republicans move moderate or they will never win the presidency. Extreme politics will win States and districts, but you need a move to the middle.

I agree though, demographics favor the Democrats. It's really funny though. A party lead by liberal technocrats live and Die on a base that can barely read and only want free shit. And they get pissed when you try and socially engineer them.

Oh well. I just pray for lower taxes and lax monetary policy.

 

I don't care about politics, it's all bullshit, but with that said, republicans are gonna annoy the general public, and people who use midterm congress elections as a barometer are just mistaken, African Americans and Hispanics give no fks about their house representative, only old white ppl do. Hillary will win, not a shoe in, but she's the most likely prez. I remember when ppl thought Romney would beat Obama, lol.

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Mitt was close or beating Obama until the end. Ryan was a weak VP and didn't carry his state. Christy gave Obama a boost with Sandy.

Romney came very close to beating Obama which says a lot considering the sitting president advantage, fundraising machine and the guaranteed voting of large blocks of people.

People who discount Romney last election aren't looking at the numbers. And I don't care who wins since the same people will always win and lose. I just look at it as a game of Chess.

And it's funny how xyz people don't care about the house or Senate. Shows their ignorance because that is where the power lies.

 

I want Mitt to run, but if I was him I would say fuck it. Dude is pro business Obama and the retards in this country (both sides of the isle) shit all over him.

I mean liberals hated this guy. He did an assault weapon ban, he did Romney care, he has a resume to die for, great family man, technocrat, as moderate Republican as you get and they still hated him.

I actually feel bad for Obama also. Guys educated. Might not have practical experience, but he has got to cry inside with the garbage said about him on the right and the turd sandwich he has to serve up to his base. I'm pretty pleased how business moderate he's been.

Just wish he'd stop this racial shit and his executive action BS.

 

I have no idea why Mitt would run. He's been super successful professionally, he's got a few dozen grandkids running around, more money than he could spend, a wife who has a deteriorating condition and I'm pretty sure he'll be close to 70 by the time he'd be in office. And he's super active in his church so he has something to occupy his time when he's not flying in his jet to one of his multiple houses. And he's actually a pretty nice guy. Smart as fuck.

Other than a need for power or to stroke one's ego, I never understand why wealthy and successful guys would want to be in public office. You live in the public fishbowl and half the people are going to hate you at all times. I'd say it's out of altruism and wanting to serve your country, but I'd be happier if my son became a drag queen or a pimp rather than a politician.

 

His dad was governor. I mean i wouldn't be surprised if Mitt saw the Presidency as the highest way for him to serve. He obviously doesn't need the ego boost.

I agree though. Presidency is a pain in the ass.

 

There was a piece somewhere comparing Nixon to Romney, I mean this could finally be his shot. Especially after they released Mitt. People realized the dude isn't a robot who knows hot to make money. I would love to see him get another shot.

Cruz unfortunately just can't win and Rand will appeal to a lot more people than Ron but still an uphill battle. I don't like Hillary though I think she might be better than Obama mostly cuz she will try and separate herself from his policies. Would that mean further to the left or further to the center? Hard to say.

 
frattisimus101:

There was a piece somewhere comparing Nixon to Romney, I mean this could finally be his shot. Especially after they released Mitt. People realized the dude isn't a robot who knows hot to make money. I would love to see him get another shot.

Cruz unfortunately just can't win and Rand will appeal to a lot more people than Ron but still an uphill battle. I don't like Hillary though I think she might be better than Obama mostly cuz she will try and separate herself from his policies. Would that mean further to the left or further to the center? Hard to say.

Cruz has no shot, but I always love when someone tries shitting on him or calling him a stupid Tea Party Redneck. Dude is Cuban and went to Princeton and Harvard. Won multiple debating titles. Dude is smart and articulate.

 

I don't like the guy and hope he doesn't win the GOP nomination, but I laugh when liberals call him "retarded" and "stupid." His resume is awe inspiring. Princeton undergrad, national debate champion, Harvard Law where he made Law Review and graduated in the top 10% of his class, clerked for Chief Justice William Rehnquist on the Supreme Court, various government positions in the Bush Administration, Texas Solicitor General where he argued 9 cases before the Supreme Court and winning 5 of them, elected to the U.S. Senate in an upset.

 

I tend to agree that Ted Cruz can't win a national election for the Presidency, but I think it's because guys like Cruz become caricatured by the media as right-wing extremists. Think about this--Cruz is known as a right-wing extremist because he believes in balanced budgets, wants to repeal and replace Obamacare, wants to enforce existing immigration laws, and supports Israel. So basically, Cruz is in almost total agreement with 40 to 50% of the country.

I'm starting to notice a pattern, to be perfectly honest. There are 2 primary differences between a so-called moderate Republican and a conservative Republican--the politician's geography and his or her temperment. For example, if Mitt Romney were governor of Utah, he'd probably have a very conservative voting record. However, as governor of Massachusetts, Romney was forced to the left by an opposition legislature that had a veto-proof majority. Same thing with Chris Christie (on a less extreme scale). Rick Perry, on the other hand, as governor of Texas, has had the freedom to govern as conservatively as he's wanted to.

With regard to temperment, Ted Cruz is a perfect example. Cruz is a partisan bomb-thrower. Compare him to, say, Governor John Kasich of Ohio, who is a true-blue conservative with a moderate "personality", who is not overtly partisan or ideological. Kasich is not poison in a national election while Cruz is even though both would agree on probably 90-95% of public policy positions.

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What's the saying? A Massachusetts Republican is more liberal than a Texas Democrat?

Cruz gets slapped with the bomb thrower label because politicians need to play, or at least act, nice and likeable. They're on camera essentially 24/7 and they have to come off as not an ass. John Adams would never have been elected in today's world even though he's probably in the top 3 most intelligent Presidents we've had, but by everything I've ever read about the guy he was a very unlikeable ass. Ronald Reagan, although not super conservative compared to today's conservative movement, was pretty far right compared to 50 years of predecessors and congresses, but he was very likeable. Guys like Cruz need to understand that acting like an ass most of the time will not endear them to all but the most ardent parts of their base regardless of intelligence and accomplishments. If they want to be the attack dog of their party in the House or Senate and it doesn't matter because their district/State is so reliable red or blue that they're guaranteed reelection, but they're not going to make it as a President. Presidents need to be seen as Presidential not like they're going to instantly argue with everyone with whom they speak.

 

I'm bumping this thread because it's pretty fascinating to look back even 9 months or so to see how things have shaped up. As I said originally in the thread, I was backing Mitt Romney. I was bitterly disappointed when Romney decided not to run because I think he'd have made a truly good President--center-right like George H.W. Bush who, in hindsight, is considered to be a pretty strong President.

When Romney dropped out, I tentatively got into the Rubio camp, especially when it looked like Kasich was not going to get into the race. Unlike @mbavsmfin, I actually think Rubio has the most substance of any of the candidates--he's known as a guy who can speak intelligently on virtually any topic. Even though I don't always agree with Rubio, I really respect how seriously he takes public policy. Add in his fresh face, Florida representation, and Spanish fluency and he'd be a real bear in the general.

As of now, I'm split between Kasich and Rubio. I think a Kasich/Rubio ticket would be almost unbeatable. Both are popular policy wonks with moderate personalities (as I mentioned before, that just means that neither is a bomb-thrower and both have a long track record of cutting deals and being friends with their opposition). Kasich is unfailingly popular--even Charles Barkley (!) says he supports Kasich! And Kasich's numbers in Ohio are simply massive.

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