Trending Content
| +92 | Are you “less ambitious” for having long term goals outside of NYC | 22 | 2d | |
| +57 | How to sound more eloquent? | 26 | 1d | |
| +40 | WSO Ranking On Resume??? | 10 | 2d | |
| +35 | Interviews Are So Fake | 21 | 1h | |
| +33 | 2024 UK Election - Tories finished? | 20 | 7h | |
| +29 | Being Christian in investment banking | 14 | 2h | |
| +26 | Is my boss gaslighting me? | 3 | 5d | |
| +22 | Ideas for things to do with a free semester before starting ft? | 9 | 1d | |
| +20 | Sabotaging Peers to Get Ahead? | 34 | 3d | |
| +18 | Best NYC neighborhood for single 30M | 12 | 1d |
Career Resources
Sir this is a Wendy’s
fuck Wendy's. All my homies love Chick-Fil-A.
During the Cold War we had all out proxy battles in Vietnam (and elsewhere). Ukraine will likely be much the same, we send some troops as “advisors” and Russia has their own “advisors”. At least that’s where I’d put my bet.
But fuck if I know anything, these decisions are made behind closed doors I’ll never be in the building of
Feel like the jan 2020 ww3 scare was deeper. I was mentally prepared to accept a draft call back then
How could a scuffle with iran possibly be closer to WW3 than Russia vs Nato? Especially with rising tensions in Taiwan?
someone obviously bought into the memes
January 24, 2020...
lol
lol no one is starting WW3 over Ukraine or Taiwan for that matter
Yawn. Wake me up when it actually happens because it hasn't yet for the last...I can't count that high anymore...times someone's cried WW3.
The US is certainly in a far weaker position than it has been in decades. Financially, mentally, physically, emotionally. We've atrophied across the board and largely forgotten, or at least diminished in our minds, the reality of the world outside our own country. It's been a long time since an authoritarian leaning nation state had actual geo political power and the resources to challenge us or any other country - the decades long rise/race towards democratic leaning, globalized nation states that tend to not fight each other has slowed at least.
We as a society are far closer to Chamberlain than we are Churchill though. Can you imagine Biden on TV - or Trump for that matter - rallying the country to sacrifice, conscribe or otherwise go to war with a unified purpose? Morale is not exactly high in this country towards anything, much less an all out shooting war with Russia. Maybe I'd be surprised and we all band together - but not exactly my preference. Plus - why on earth would you actually go to war with the US right now? I'm an optimist on the US but if I'm looking to displace us, I'd have to think the time to strike is not right now (though I could probably argue either side).
That said - I don't think WW3 is around the corner. Putin may well take the Ukraine but who's going to stop him. The EU won't risk being starved out of gas and oil, nor do they seem to have the fortitude to band together to do anything militarily. The US... already gave my opinion. Neville Chamberlain for sure - and it's probably the right decision. I am fascinated by military history but have little interest in an event taking place in my time.
Someone mentioned proxy wars - I think most of those are already taking place, in the cyber/economic/IP/demography space more than anything. I do agree the most likely outcome is advisors, limited support, and then get out. I may be a Neocon, but at a certain point who on earth is going to fight a proxy war for us? It's like a trust fall with no one standing behind you when you actually fall. Luckily most of the time, in recent history, it hasn't mattered for us or the threat has been enough to keep the peace. I tend to be optimistic generally on the world wanting to keep progress moving forward with enough to lose - we may be stupid at times, but we aren't suicidal to this point in the modern era.
Even thinking about WW3 gives me anxiety - it would be absolutely horrific, no matter how it is fought. Even conventional technology without nukes would be terrible. It's like when people start casually throwing around another civil war, secession, etc. - do they have no comprehension of how horrific that would be? America it seems is great at maximizing everything, and the best at killing ourselves during war vs. other countries. No thank you.
You should read about the election of 1940. The overwhelming sentiment at the time was isolationism, the belief that the US should not engage in any international affairs, and Roosevelt had to promise not to get involved in any foreign wars, something that was obviously broken. He still won reelection because America was still bitter at big business and financiers who supported his opponent, Wendell Wilkie. Things can change really fast.
Compare that to today, where a lot of people on both sides were not too happy about us leaving the 20 year quagmire known as Afghanistan. I would say Americans today are still more interventionist than they were in 1940.
I agree with your take (I also mentioned proxy wars because I think we've sent 3,000 troops to that region, I'd imagine some ODAs and others are already on the ground and have been there).
I also hate it when people throw out the "we should do a civil war" thing. I think of this video that has stuck with me for a while now (WARNING- it's graphic and real). It's about the Green Berets who were ambushed in Niger, just shows the realities of war that it's horrific. And these guys know what they're doing, they're the top 1% of warfighters on the planet.
https://www.cbs17.com/news/international-news/graphic-video-showing-dea…
Now imagine that happening thousands and thousands of more times in hundreds of more locations and you have an idea of what a major war would look like.
20k British soldiers killed on the first day of the battle of the Somme in 1916. That shit is basically unfathomable. People are way too quick to push for conflict.
Totally agree with your take +1.
Definitely agree too that the idea of a WW today is absolutely terrifying. The weapons we've created as humanity between the last one and now are greater in their destruction by several magnitudes. And while the US has potentially the most advanced weaponry / defense in place, other nations are certainly not to be scoffed upon.
Also not to mention how intertwined we are from a business / economical standpoint. The turmoil which would be caused by even the slightest of actual conflict itself would be terrifying in itself.
But hopefully yes, while we are certainly in a tense state, there will not be an actual war or violent conflict in the near future (and hopefully late future).
Disclaimer: I'm no geopolitics expert, so hold your monkey shit
Isn't the world now "too big" for a third World War to happen though? I don't think it's impossible, but back in the early 20th century, "the world" was basically Europe, so any war that happened there would inevitably extend to other continents. Now, power is so divided and entangled around the world that I find unlikely that we're seeing a binary division like we saw in WWII any time soon.
Now, Cold War II? For me, it started with the Trade War.
Militarily I have no doubt that the US could hold its ground if a conflict were to happen, but I don't see how that makes it more likely that we have a WWIII. My point is that at least economically, the world is too diluted nowadays for a conflict involving all major powers to happen like we saw in 1914 and 1945. A lot of pieces would have to fall in the right places to make something like that happen again, many more than needed a century ago.
Agreed, as evidenced by our military spending.
Not to mention the US citizen has more guns and ammo than any military in the world.
The Cold War didn’t result in war, maybe that’s why most aren’t concerned. The threat of mutual destruction still holds its weight. Also, chaos is the last thing a dictator wants, especially one as smart as Putin. Large scale wars are generally accompanied by a turnover in ruling class. Putin certainly wouldn’t want that
This is a good take.
Putin is too smart and lives too good a life to want to ruin that. Especially arming a country where you were not elected would not bode well for longevity.
I should think we won't see large scale wars unless somebody uses a nuke.
Lmfao, the US would have a hard time drafting troops to go into war with a country like Russia. The generation of men who would accept dying for this country are gone. Don't tell me during a labor shortage crisis here in the U.S. you'll suddenly have a surplus of fit men willing to fight a war in a country they don't even speak the language of haha
20% of US medal of honor recipients have been immigrants
Theres gonna be no war only for the fact that Russia has most of Europe in back pocket because of their energy dependence. If the US puts some sort of embargo, etc on russia, theres going to be millions of europeans that will suffer due to even higher energy prices which is going to strain EU-US relations. Theres a reason Germany doesnt want the US to do anything because of this. Plus, Russia mainly wants Crimea due to their expansion of ports and ability to make navigation to new areas easier and cheaper since they wouldnt need to go around China which is what they do mostly rn.
PS. im not not a geopolitical expert
I was reading comments that Russian tanks would suffer from the muddy grounds of eastern Ukraine, therefore delaying the potential invasion to the coming days when the weather would get below 0C leading the ground to freeze and terrain to become much more favorable for swift tank movements.
Russia isn't the USSR. The US is so divided why would anyone risk doing something to unite us to a common cause.
The war that people think is happening is political and being fought economically.
Which is, in fact, a Good Thing.
You must not remember Syria 3 years ago when Russian mercenaries from putins chef attacked a US forward operating location and got slapped
Bring it on!
Murrica, back to back world war champs!
Good to see the off topic forum is still braindead
Idk what's gonna happen but in the meantime, does anyone wanna yolo some long gamma on the ruble?
Ukraine just said Russian invasion unlikely now lol
Geopolitical god here (current statesman, read PPE at Magdalen and Economics at ChCh).
Russia has approximately a 34-36% chance of achieving strategic objectives in a full-on war with the US ("winning" a war), calculated with Russia by itself and the US with her NATO allies.
The probability that the US achieves subjugation, annexation or control of Russia is ~0%. The probability that Russia is able to do the same to the US is ~0%.
People vastly underestimate Russia and far overestimate the US. The US has not been capable of fighting an asymmetrical conflict since the 1960s, much less against a peer enemy (which Russia is, just not on paper). Socioeconomic, political and psychological differences turn the tides in Russia's favor, given her homogenous and nationalist population who will support its government in any war. Compared to the US's weak, diverse cultural melting pot, their European immigrants will revolt, their African former slaves will riot, their Middle Eastern refugees will bomb and their natives will protest if a war drags on longer than their psychological limit (4-5 months).
The US has a larger economy on paper, but most are consumer goods and "useless" in war, including consumer electronics, clothing, software and luxury products. Russia has a thriving heavy industry, agricultural and energy sector. After all, war is won with steel, coal and grain, not iPhones, Facebooks, Teslas, Nike sneakers, cryptocurrency exchanges and Microsoft Teams.
Russia achieves its strategic objectives and forces a stalemate is the most likely scenario, followed by Russia achieving its strategic objectives, then suing for peace.
Either way, Russia statistically cannot lose any consequential amount land or manpower.
People saying that too many pieces would have to fall into place for a war the scale of WWII - I don‘t agree. Given the current threats made by the three forces - NATO, including the US and Europe, Russia, and China - there is a very real possibility that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would lead to war. The NATO has made it clear that an invasion of Ukraine would lead to economic sanctions, most importantly the exclusion of Russia from SWIFT (which would make Russia‘s GDP shrink by 5% over night) and the termination of projects such as Nord Stream 2. However, Putin has clearly stated that he‘d consider an exclusion from SWIFT as a declaration of war. Furthermore, during the opening of the Olympic Games, Xi Jinping has stated that China and Russia are close allies and that China supports Russia‘s cause. So there is a possibility where Putin invading Ukraine would lead to war between the US and Europe with Russia and China.
That said, I don’t think Putin will invade Ukraine simply because the cost is too high - both for himself and for the country. I recently saw al interview of Russian civilians on German television and they all had no idea how serious the situation was because Russian state television doesn’t broadcast any information on it. I‘d like to think that if they knew, the Anti-Putin movement would pick up quite rapidly. Also, risking the Russian economy over invading Ukraine with no particular reason seems like a weird move. I think Putin doesn’t like that there is a possibility that Ukraine could join the NATO and that he tries his best to prevent that because it would mean that the NATO could turn Ukraine into a super military power at the Russian border. But ultimately, I don’t think he would invade Ukraine.
Vel necessitatibus commodi molestias fugiat voluptatem. Eius sed ipsum possimus optio assumenda asperiores. Omnis repudiandae eligendi aliquid consectetur. Asperiores autem voluptas dolorem beatae tenetur officia. Quia est beatae vitae tenetur quis. Tempora pariatur voluptates voluptatum tempora atque. Cum in libero magnam nisi libero cupiditate debitis.
Aliquid quibusdam voluptatem corrupti corporis alias quam. Sunt dolor officiis vero vero nulla labore. Saepe voluptatem est sed. Eos officiis ut expedita distinctio amet. Consectetur excepturi et est qui dolore.
Non qui autem architecto magni possimus tempora. Eveniet vel inventore eos qui.
Impedit vero quaerat odit qui libero quisquam optio. Distinctio inventore voluptatum non qui occaecati magni eius. Ipsa consequatur enim dolor numquam impedit exercitationem. Deserunt excepturi incidunt ratione quis sunt. Eos mollitia consectetur amet neque dolorem.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...
Voluptatem iusto tempora quia. Consequatur iure laborum nihil magni. Est fugiat quasi libero nam.
Est quia ut dolorem aut ipsa ut. Sit sunt ut non saepe. Ab consectetur voluptas suscipit.
Autem aut repellendus itaque dolores rem debitis. Qui consequatur ut et mollitia. Unde est iure maxime nulla aspernatur. Eligendi quia suscipit debitis ipsum eligendi nesciunt accusantium.