Bubble in private markets
Came across this article which I thought was quite thought-provoking: https://finhistory.substack.com/p/incentives-are-dangerously-aligned.&n…;
I used to work in MF PE myself and can underwrite many of the dynamics, and am sure others on this forum as well. I think the article is missing quantification of the bubble and catalyst here, although MBS/CDO market was only $2 trillion when it collapsed in ‘07 and private markets are many times that. Also with the insane AI infra build out and corresponding debt funding, geopolitical tensions, and probably many other unknown unknowns, there are some easily imaginable catalysts at hand.
What are other people’s thoughts?
You are 3 years late man, stuff popped in H2 2022 and things have been deflating ever since. Effects are lagged because everything is without a mark to market. Next fundraising cycle will be a bloodbath, then on to brighter and better things.
I think that’s a pretty simplistic and hopeful view. I think you are completely ignoring that (a) the largest funds have insourced massive insurance assets that they are increasingly allocating to their own origination platforms (and collect fees) and (b) the enormous rise of retail evergreen vehicles. AuM for the top platforms continue to grow at high double digit rates, just look up any of their recent IPs. Sure, there will be some shake out of bad performing funds in the middle segment of the market which is already ongoing for a while (which is what you refer to). Yes institutional investors are capped out in alternatives and can only marginally increase exposure, but my point is that large managers have managed to find a way around it to keep growing their AuM (see an and b) through retail money. You can’t blame them, they are incentivised to do so (more AuM -> more recurring management fees -> higher stock price + ability to create liquidity for zombie holdings) but it doesn’t really look sustainable to me, and I fear retail (and perhaps tax payers as well) are going to hold the bag (once again) when this all collapses.
Was speaking from a buyout perspective, the insurance dollars and retail dollars don’t go to those largely
The private markets do seem to exhibit some bubble-like characteristics, as highlighted in various WSO threads. Here are some key insights and considerations based on the most helpful WSO content:
Valuation Frothiness: Private markets, particularly VC and PE, have seen inflated valuations in recent years. This is often attributed to excess liquidity, low interest rates, and a surge in capital allocations from endowments and pensions. However, private valuations tend to lag public markets, which can delay the realization of a bubble.
Catalysts for a Correction:
Comparison to the 2007-08 Crisis:
Potential Contagion:
Bubble Quantification:
Tail Risks:
In summary, while private markets are undeniably frothy, the catalysts for a correction are varied and complex. The interplay between AI investments, geopolitical risks, and credit dynamics could be the tipping point. However, the lower leverage and better-capitalized lenders might prevent a full-blown systemic crisis akin to 2008.
Sources: A Contrarian View - Raging Bull, A Contrarian View - Raging Bull, Prelude to the Next Recession
Sorry but how can you write an article about a bubble without quoting a single multiple?
There’s enough data out there; multiples in PE have increased continuously for the past 2 decades, AuM has grown double digits over the last 2 decades, there has been a lot of debate on PE returns which are now lagging S&P 500 over 5+ years (and look up LC returns on CalPERS; vintages 2015-2018 are 1.4-1.7x MOIC on avg with most of it unrealised (…) and that was when industry AuM was half vs today). All my friends who are still in the industry would agree it’s hyper competitive, assets get overbid all the time, fund returns are under pressure across the board and there is continuously increasing deployment pressure mostly from democratized vehicles inflow. One can draw some parallels to the GFC although different asset class and principals/agents, which is what the article is about.
Anyway, might have been better to ask this on Reddit instead - most people here are compartmentalised within one chain of the supply chain (deployment) and unable or unwilling to form a holistic view on the industry and where its going. Makes sense if your career and what you have worked towards for 5-10+ years hinges on that belief…
I don’t disagree with anything you’re saying. I’m just saying you’re not providing a key piece of evidence which makes the analysis pretty much meaningless. Without multiples everything you’ve said could be explained in a different way. If you want a good debate you need to provide a good thesis or argument
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