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I think the market will start to pickup going into ‘25 but people need to change their expectations, if they expect to return to ‘21 and ‘22 # of openings. Deal activity will pick up, but just like businesses, firms will be more prudent in terms of managing team size, likely meaning leaner deal teams moving forward to avoid overstaffing. Along with that, most firms at the LMM / MM / MF are stagnant or contracting, not aggressively expanding. 
 

Sr. Associate lateral has certainly picked up, along with Associate lateral hiring at all of the notable HHs (CPI, hsp, etc.)

 
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It’s tough to say because there have been so few VP opportunities in the market this year so even a half dozen new opportunities coming to market feels like a big pick up. That said, there have certainly been a handful of new VP opportunities in these past few weeks and unlike the first quarter of the year, firms are now extended offers. Most everything remains in control of the headhunters though so if you are in touch with the top 10 headhunters, you’re seeing most everything.

On the flip side, the candidate pool continued to get a lot more saturated this summer and this doesn’t appear to be stopping. Lots and lots of post-MBAs continue to get laid off due to unsuccessful fundraisings and not nearly enough opportunities exist to employ them all. I’ve seen a few people resort to alternative jobs such as portfolio companies / going back into banking, but most are holding out for another PE job.

As for ‘when’ the market will completely turn, I think that largely depends on interest rates leading to deal pickup and hopefully leading to more fundraising. Raising new funds is really the key to creating new VP seats (versus seats becoming available by people quitting / getting promoted / terminated for performance).

As for the comment above about Sr Associate and Associate lateral hiring — pre-MBA associate roles are on a rotational basis (2 or 3 years then out), so there is generally an ongoing replacement need and a LOT more seats available than the post-MBA seats.

CompBanker’s Career Guidance Services: https://www.rossettiadvisors.com/
 

Sure. So I'd say the market for mid-level PE hiring picked up a fair bit in Q4 of 2024, likely due to optimism coming off the election. Unfortunately things started to weaken in January / February with the market uncertainty. That said, there are still firms out there recruiting. In the last two weeks I had three people get offers for post-MBA PE roles (Senior Associate / VP). In every case the individuals were coming from strong backgrounds. Meanwhile, I know of plenty of others still looking that also have strong backgrounds. In fact, there were another wave of PE layoffs in conjunction with year end reviews this year which has even further flooded the market with talent. So while opportunities exist, it is definitely an employer's market and you're unlikely to be faced with much 'choice' ... it's a bit of a numbers game and the numbers aren't in your favor.

CompBanker’s Career Guidance Services: https://www.rossettiadvisors.com/
 
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How are people feeling? Currently recruiting for an experienced VP/SVP role in NYC, good MF/UMM experience and not about to be pushed out. Focusing on a couple of TMT/HC/Services buyout, flexible on fund size as long as team is strong.

In a couple processes now, one i got through and they told me they decided to hire two SAs instead of a VP during comp/title negotiations, and a couple that are more more feeling me out vs. formal processes at this point. Have also seen 2-3 more that either never materialized or i didn't pursue. 

Overall seems like it's still a bad market, particularly for NYC. Hoping market picks up in Q1...HHs I'm close to tell me they think it'll be a tossup but expecting some movement in Q1 and then dead rest of year. 

 

Will just chime in too. Similar to above, good background etc, opportunistically looking, not getting forced out. VP1/SA level. Northeast. Have found the market to be similarly bad basically the same as it’s been for a long time now. Just a massive supply demand balance. Maybe pessimistic but I don’t think it’s improving any time soon or ever tbh.

 

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