Noob question on DCF vs. Comps valuation

Noob question here:


I was speaking with a GP about a restaurant business which they own. The business had naturally been heavily impacted by COVID lockdowns so both revenue and EBITDA had decreased substantially over 2021. However, when I looked at the EV of their business, the equity value was still very high.

On a comps basis, it looked like ~20x LTM EBITDA, where as most of its true comps historically trade around 6-8x. The GP mentioned that they are not using comps to form their FMV but rather DCF as they feel the current holding value (FMV) is a better indicator of future value than the 'blip' the business is experiencing with COVID...

Now here is my confusion - the business' EBITDA had shrunk from ~$10mm to $2mm - how can the GP just not mark down the position? The current environment seems like a better indicator of value, even if it is a temporary set back, no?

 

In general PE has delayed valuation changes vs say listed equities with daily mark to markets.

DCFs aren’t that commonly used in PE. Revenue or Earnings * multiple is far more common.

There is a lot of discretion the GP has on valuations. It is common to have a listed comp set to gauge the multiple - this is probably down vs a year ago. On earnings, the GP is probably normalising earnings.

At the end of the day, the valuation will be whatever the business trades at to the next buyer.

 

This is helpful - thank you. I found this scenario to be kind of weird tbh. It felt like the FMV was arbitrarily high

 
Most Helpful

Here's another perspective - EBITDA multiples are easy shorthand, but they're really only directly meaningful for more or less stabilized businesses. 

Think about it this way: pretend you owned an outdoor theme park and 95% of your annual revenue occurred between Memorial Day and Labor Day. You typically value the business on a multiple of EBITDA because that's what everyone does. In 2020, you get hit hard by a hurricane in April and you have to shut down for repairs during your entire busy season. As a result, your LTM earnings will fall off a cliff and probably be negative until the next summer rolls around. As of that September, multiplying your LTM EBITDA by the typical multiple would result in an enterprise value close to zero or negative. But is the business really worthless? You expect to make the repairs over the next few months, and you'll open back up for normal operations in summer 2021. Pretend you're netting $10M per year with no growth - over the next 50 years, you now expect to make $490M instead of $500M... pretty much a rounding error. You can argue it's worth less (TVM, cost to recuperate earnings, etc.), but in any case the LTM multiple will assuredly be higher than it was before the temporary disruption. This is effectively what happened to restaurants (and theme parks, for that matter…) during COVID

This is the idea behind a DCF - the business is worth money because of its ability to generate a stream of future cash flows, and if the business is still expected to generate income in the future (in line with previous estimates) then the present value shouldn't actually change that much even though the TEV / LTM EBITDA multiple approaches infinity (as EBITDA approaches zero). This is especially pronounced in a near-zero interest rate environment - as the discount falls, today's earnings aren't worth that much more than tomorrow's. We don't even need to look at extreme examples like EBITDA falling to zero; this is the same logic behind applying multiples to "normalized" EBITDA instead of reported. Similarly, you'd pay an above-market EBITDA multiple for above-market growth, synergies, etc. - the idea being that in the long run, earnings will increase to support the valuation even if it looks high based on current metrics.

Your GP is arguing that the long-term earnings potential of the business hasn't been impaired despite a fluctuation in LTM EBITDA, and as a result the historical EBITDA multiple isn't representative of the current TEV. This is entirely sound, internally consistent reasoning, but it does get abused (every business ever will adjust their EBITDA and tell you they're really worth more, and PE naturally wants to use the asset class's illiquid nature to smooth returns) - the job of the buyer is to evaluate on future earnings potential and take a view on what valuation that supports; TEV/EBITDA is just a quick way to reference that but it isn't actually the determinant of value.

 

Ipsa ex consequatur blanditiis ea voluptates mollitia et. Est sit et voluptas perferendis.

Career Advancement Opportunities

April 2024 Private Equity

  • The Riverside Company 99.5%
  • Blackstone Group 99.0%
  • Warburg Pincus 98.4%
  • KKR (Kohlberg Kravis Roberts) 97.9%
  • Bain Capital 97.4%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

April 2024 Private Equity

  • The Riverside Company 99.5%
  • Blackstone Group 98.9%
  • KKR (Kohlberg Kravis Roberts) 98.4%
  • Ardian 97.9%
  • Bain Capital 97.4%

Professional Growth Opportunities

April 2024 Private Equity

  • The Riverside Company 99.5%
  • Bain Capital 99.0%
  • Blackstone Group 98.4%
  • Warburg Pincus 97.9%
  • Starwood Capital Group 97.4%

Total Avg Compensation

April 2024 Private Equity

  • Principal (9) $653
  • Director/MD (22) $569
  • Vice President (92) $362
  • 3rd+ Year Associate (91) $281
  • 2nd Year Associate (206) $266
  • 1st Year Associate (387) $229
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (29) $154
  • 2nd Year Analyst (83) $134
  • 1st Year Analyst (246) $122
  • Intern/Summer Associate (32) $82
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (314) $59
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
3
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
4
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
5
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
6
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
7
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
8
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
9
Linda Abraham's picture
Linda Abraham
98.8
10
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”