There are a few things about private credit that have always bugged me. 

  1. Regulatory risk was always an issue, especially as it relates to the ever-expanding influence and oversight of the SEC. Put simply, banks were heavily regulated for a reason. Why would the SEC not turn around and one day say: 'hang on a minute. shouldn't we shackle you private credit guys down too?'
  2. There is minimal differentiation across private credit shops (let's not even mention the PE firms that have started up private credit strategies). Going as far back as 2014-2015, there have been more and more players chasing the same number of deals. In PE, you can fake it 'till you make it and it could take 5-10 years. Private credit isn't going to give you that luxury of time. It'd be 1-3 years on the shorter end and is obviously heavily reliant on nonstop underwriting. Forget 'proprietary sourcing.' Also, when you have the CEOs and Managing Partners of all the megafunds saying 'now is the golden age of private credit,' that's when you know it's time to gtfo. It's not surprising at all that you're now seeing banks pour back into this space. They can do it at a fraction of the fees that PC firms can. So who would you choose if you needed the financing?
  3. The race to the bottom on fees is insane. On the larger end of the spectrum, you're seeing megafunds adopt the Uber/Lyft model of 'FUCK IT. 0 MGMT FEES FOR EVERYONE UNTIL WE GRAB AS MUCH MARKET SHARE AS POSSIBLE.' That's nuts for an asset class that had lower mgmt fees & carry to begin with. It's not like private credit shops have lower headcount than PE funds either. 

I could go on but have never been a big fan of PD/PC and don't expect this ride to last much longer. 

 
Funniest

I think you’re incorrect

Outstanding rebuttal. I don't know who to side with anymore. 

"The obedient always think of themselves as virtuous rather than cowardly" - Robert A. Wilson | "If you don't have any enemies in life you have never stood up for anything" - Winston Churchill | "It's a testament to the sheer belligerence of the profession that people would rather argue about the 'risk-adjusted returns' of using inferior tooth cleaning methods." - kellycriterion
 

On the first point they will never be as regulated as they do not have massive retail banking operations that would have to be bailed out. This is a good development, forcing the separation of degenerate risk taking activities from useful finance functions

 

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