Where do the 'bodies' of PE go?

There's lot of discussion here on the difficulties to make it up in PE. It seems like there's 1 MD for every ~3 - 5 VPs and 1VP for every ~4 - 10 associates. Mathematically, it means the majority of people won't make it up. Where do those that do not make it / choose not to continue go? 

I'm personally interested in running my own business or in strategy at a startup. However, given I have a banking background, I worry that after PE I'll niche myself to finance / strategic finance at best at a startup

 

Have seen a couple go back to IB but wouldn’t say it’s common

 

Have seen a couple go back to IB but wouldn’t say it’s common

 

I have absolutely no hard data to back this up, but I suspect the proliferation of small / start-up funds means not as many junior people are forced to leave the industry altogether as the train of thought you went down might imply. This is highly anecdotal, but looking at 30-40 of the recent "alumni" of my current and former funds (both upper MM NY-based funds), the lion's share of them are still in PE or in some other principal investing role (e.g. family office). Given the availability of dry powder over the past ~10 years, there are a ton of relatively new middle-market and lower middle-market funds all across the U.S. that seem to love to hire former associates and VPs from larger funds. Unless you totally suck at the job, are actively looking to leave the industry, or started at a small fund to begin with, it seems like the overall growth of the industry has allowed those who want to stay in the industry to do so (even if not at the fund they originally started at).

 

I was a LMM PE analyst, nontarget background and no banking experience.

Coming from ~$200M fund, I was able to get interviews at decent lower-to-mid market funds ($500M-$1bn fund size). Didn’t have much luck converting to an offer, but once you have the interview it’s more on your performance than your background. 
 

F500 corp dev typically ignored me, although admittedly it wasn’t a focus of mine, but I had good responses from larger PE-backed platforms for Corp Dev / Bus Dev / Strategy roles (often in the $500M-$1bn revenue range). Recruiters pretty much never reached out for hedge funds, but I got decent responses from funds in the area when I reached out to learn more (that said, this also wasn’t a focus of mine).

Ended up going A2A at same fund for a sizable increase in comp and a verbal commitment for carry in our next fund (naturally, I value this at zero until it’s in writing, but it’s a nice upside case)

 

Senior associate here at a large PE fund. From what I’ve seen recently with friends and peers, there are lots of lateral opportunities for associates and senior associates that aren’t getting the VP nod at their current fund. Lots of new MM and LMM funds are popping up and there’s just a ton of capital flowing into this industry right now. Plus you have family offices and other organizations that are trying to get into private equity and are desperate for experienced hires. You might have to go to a smaller or “less prestigious” fund, but there is no shortage of VP roles out there in my view. 

Now, for experienced VPs and Principals, unfortunately I don’t have a good perspective on that level. But I imagine it’s the same dynamic (join a smaller or new fund, join a family office, etc.)

 
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From MF PE world, I’ve seen very high proportion go to H/S and to lesser degree W, and then back to PE on partner track; some back to the same MF, some elsewhere.  It depends on their performance, their group’s needs, and the firms growth trajectory.

Broadly speaking, securing a partner track role at a MF/UMM has historically viewed as getting the golden ticket and so people latch on if it’s available to them.  I’ve also seen people go to other PE firms.  From the MF world it’s usually to large European PE (CVC, EQT, etc), a SWF (eg GIC) or to other PE seats.  Some leave bschool to go to a (typically) great start-up seat, or to a growth equity/VC seat.

You also see a bunch (with or without H/S MBA) for a top HF if they can get it.  This is even harder to come by than partner track MF seat.  Basically, Lone Pine, etc.  And a bunch go to smaller but still sizeable HFs.  These are more volatile seats and could be very very ruthless on your career trajectory.

I don’t know that I’ve seen anyone do anything outside of those paths (from the MF world).

 

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