Emerging Markets - Which city will the next NYC?
Which secondary markets do you feel have the potential to become primary markets and/or the next NYC from a real estate perspective?
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I don't think this question makes sense. What you should probably ask is which secondary market has the potential to become a core market, or which core market has the potential to become a premier core market (i.e. NYC/San Fran)
Question 1: Nashville, Austin, and Denver are three cities on my radar. Detroit is another city which has incredible potential.
Question 2: Los Angeles. It's becoming very much a destination for MF, RT and OF. Also Washington D.C. is becoming a very attractive city for both business and residence.
I can't see Detroit happening anytime soon. Too much sprawl, especially as you move away from downtown and towards the outskirts.
Silly question.... I believe South/Mid/Upper Manhattan alone has ~450MM SF of office. No other single market comes close to that (even DC/Chicago drags this by nearly 50% - excluding NoVa/MD for DC).
Silly answer - did you even read the question? I said FUTURE, Champ. The bottom line is that NYC will max out at some point. Land is a finite resource and building heights have a cap. The Manhattan Elite will then proceed to spread out - it's already happening (read: Dumbo and other preeminent developments in Brooklyn). Furthermore, foreign investors are increasingly looking to put their capital into markets other than NYC because yield is higher in other markets. I believe that due to these limitations, primary markets like D.C. And Chiraq have the potential to catch up - especially if global currencies continue to manifest volatility and foreign investors are seeking tangible u.s. assets to mitigate their risk.
"The bottom line is that NYC will max out at some point. Land is a finite resource and building heights have a cap. The Manhattan Elite will then proceed to spread out - it's already happening (read: Dumbo and other preeminent developments in Brooklyn)."
You are trying to prove that NYC real estate will Max out but then you say that the real estate market is expanding into less developed areas of NYC.
LMFAO at Chiraq. How's that murder rate going right now....
Boston
Is anyone bullish on Phoenix or Seattle?
I just took a trip to Seattle. It's insane the amount of cranes that are in the air right now. I heard (think somewhere here on WSO) that 30% of inventory is being built right now.
i've spent the last couple months in Seattle, IT IS ON FIRE, at least in the real estate & tech areas
I just got back from a weekend in Seattle a couple of weeks ago. Seattle was literally on fire. So much smoke in the air. Do they have the fires under control yet?
Agreed though, the skyline looked like SF with how many cranes were up.
I'm very bullish on Phoenix;
It seems that Scottsdale, AZ is having a mini-tech boom with many HQ's coming out there. Cheaper per SF than California, while also retaining the weather, girls, etc.
Also more centrally placed than most, has a great opportunity for solar and geothermal energy.
Combine that all together, and I'd say you have a very good little area if company keep coming in.
I agree and now would be the time to make that bet - office vacancy is still at 20% and they are in the national top 3 for job growth.
Companies in California (e.g., Zenefits) are moving several operations, like HR, sales, and accounting, to Phoenix to decrease their footprint in pricey areas like Silicon Valley/Beach, San Francisco. Why pay a salesman*** $150K in SF when you could pay them $60K to live like a king in Scottsdale?
***salesPERSON. Check your privilege brah.
Atlanta -busiest airport -one of the top cities for corporate relocations -warm weather -low cost of living -Georgia Tech located in city core (talent pipeline) -business friendly
California -perfect weather -cute chicks -Solar energy
Boston, philly, DC. Baltimore to a lesser extent. I'd look at cities with great meds and eds with good airports and near other big cities. Think Milwaukee, Minnesota, etc.
Yes. I literally meant that.
This ^^
What about Raleigh and Charlotte?
The markets that I think could move upward in the "rankings": Boston, Denver, Philly and Seattle. I like them each for a different reason, but the general gist is relatively large with good liquidity, low volatility and good market fundamentals.
As of June 2015, 7.1 million of office space was under construction. A lot of it is pre-leased, with Amazon representing roughly 56% of the development (4.0m). Other tenants include Facebook, Expedia, and Weyerhaeuser. Regarding residential, in 2015 downtown alone will see 3,500 for rent residential units.
http://www.downtownseattle.com/assets/2015/07/June-2015-Development-Gui…
Isn't Starbucks headquartered there as well?
This thread is missing south florida. Limited land bound by everglades to west ocean to east. High wealth per capita, influx of foreign investment and favorable tax environment for business.
But my hippie professors say South Florida is going to be under water in 40 years.
There is no 'next NYC.' The goalposts will just keep moving up, but nothing in the US will ever come close.
I don't know, I think some city will - maybe not in the next decade, but eventually. NYC's GDP growth rate has slowed down considerably, while other cities' have been increasing. Not to mention, foreign capital is somethin NYC has been significantly bolstered by - Chinese and Russians own a lot of assets in NYC and are starting to look elsewhere in the U.S. to park their capital - they just can't get a good return anymore.
That's just the law of large numbers. But no other city in the country will ever see the same kind of dynamics - office or residential wise unless for some reason NYC gets wiped off the map.
I personally subscribe to Buffett's philosophy. Therefore, I believe Omaha will be the next financial hub.
Is it too radical to think that given a long enough time horizon the "next" NYC may not even be in America?
I recently visited Seattle for the first time - it certainly is booming, but I left with a bad taste in my mouth. The homeless population was out of control and until that changes would not consider living there.
There isn't going to be another NYC. What is going on right now though is the reurbanization of many US cities. You shouldn't worry about any city overtaking NYC, you should be looking at other cities with a critical mass that is about to become hot from a RE aspect.
Southern cities like Atl, charlotte. Some older cities with meds and eds (Pittsburgh is a good example). Secondary cities Near marjor metros (philly to NYC, Milwaukee to Chicago). Things like that.
Well right now in NYC to be specific they're building up "billionare's row" along central park, there's gonna be some more work done in lower Manhattan for sure also. After Manhattan Brooklyn still has a LOT of growing to do, check out this WSJ article: http://www.wsj.com/articles/brooklyns-possible-housing-glut-1442191307. After Brooklyn there's gonna be some work done in the Bronx (Mott Haven) which is by the water. So yeah I think the horizon on NYC's crazy development growth can be seen from here.
I'm just an undergrad but I would say if you're looking at a city check out it's laws regarding zoning and regarding FAR (how much you can build). The more lenient it is the better, and it gives a quantifiable way to compare city's potential. My two guesses are Atlanta and Cleveland (according to a friend people (white collar) are re-flocking to Cleveland).
singapore
If Austin/Houston/Dallas basically became one big city their GDP would be higher than NYC's and they would have a stronger industry mix
Charlotte is booming right now. I mean, you can go there, work IBD at WFS, make Wall Street pay, and live like a king in a mansion that costs $500-800k that would be several million on Long Island.
I think Charlotte is on the rise.
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